4:12 Kempton (AW)
This 7f Racing TV EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Division I) for two-year-olds in Bands C and D is a competitive Class 4 heat at Kempton on standard to slow ground. The 12-runner field features a mix of lightly raced types and those with more experience, though the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top end with no standout standout. Overall the numbers suggest a race that will be decided by which horse adapts best to the tactical demands of the surface and trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy should pay. With several runners noted as held up or settling in mid-division, the key question is which horse can produce its effort at the right time in what may become a sprint for the line in the straight. Those drawn lower and able to secure a decent early position could hold an advantage in a race likely to be won from just off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Showcasing Glory KTB Selection58/100
Showcasing Glory arrives with the highest KTB Fit Score of 58 and is the clear selection. Having shown promise to win on its second start, it holds an official rating of 79 that sets the standard here. The Charlie Johnston yard posts an 11% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.8 from 279 runs, while Billy Loughnane brings a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.95 from 466 rides. Unproven on standard to slow ground and with no previous course form, the colt is usually held up and produces its effort late though that evidence remains limited. Drawn in stall 11, it will need to time its run well in a race that could pan out steadily.
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2Radical Bay51/100
Radical Bay is rated at a KTB Fit of 51 and enters calculations as a New Bay colt with a 14% sire win rate from 4094 runners. Amanda Perrett has a 12% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.96 from 754 runs, and Pat Dobbs adds an 11% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.95 from 676 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 10% strike rate together with an A/E of 0.86. With no course win on record, the two-year-old will need to translate its pedigree promise into a strong performance on standard to slow ground.
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3Boy Basilica51/100
Boy Basilica holds a KTB Fit of 51 and is sired by St Mark's Basilica, who has a 14% win rate from 596 runners. Richard Hughes brings a solid 13% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.91 from 656 runs, while Finley Marsh contributes an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 330 rides. The trainer and jockey partnership records a 16% strike rate with an A/E of 0.95. Lacking a course win, the colt must prove effective on standard to slow ground if he is to feature in a steadily-run contest.
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4Comeonfeelthenoise50/100
Comeonfeelthenoise is given a KTB Fit of 50 and has shown mixed form with figures of 97. Harry Eustace's record at Kempton stands at 15% with an A/E of 1 from 116 runs, and Kaiya Fraser has a 13% strike rate there with an A/E of 0.97 from 77 rides. The trainer and jockey combination posts a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 0.80. Typically settling in midfield, the colt is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form on record, meaning its ability to handle the surface remains a question mark.
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5Little Copper48/100
Little Copper carries a KTB Fit of 48 and has recent form figures of 09. Joseph Parr has a 15% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 1.02 from 96 runs, while Jack Mitchell posts a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.82 from 1034 rides. The trainer and jockey partnership shows a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.91. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the colt is unproven on standard to slow ground and has one previous run here when finishing 12th with no win or place to its name.
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6Al Alami48/100
Al Alami is by Sergei Prokofiev who has an 11% win rate from 1338 runners. James Owen has a 17% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 1.17 from 120 runs, though Cieren Fallon is on 10% with an A/E of 0.75 from 410 rides at the venue. The trainer and jockey combination records a 17% strike rate with an A/E of 0.93.
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7Penselwood44/100
Penselwood has recent form of 7 and is unproven on standard to slow ground. Sir Mark Prescott Bt has an 11% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.81 from 668 runs, while Luke Morris is on 9% with an A/E of 0.85 from 3386 rides. The trainer and jockey partnership shows an 18% strike rate with an A/E of 0.89.
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8Paddy Cool44/100
Paddy Cool is by Massaat who has an 8% win rate from 1264 runners. Tony Carroll has an 8% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.79 from 1922 runs, and William Carson is on 7% with an A/E of 0.76 from 1271 rides. The trainer and jockey combination records a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.88.
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9The Sergeon42/100
The Sergeon has recent form of 5 and is dropping in class. Barry Brennan has a modest 2% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.49 from 54 runs, while Charles Bishop is on 7% with an A/E of 0.7 from 838 rides. The colt is unproven on standard to slow ground.
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10Red Tail41/100
Red Tail carries an official rating of 68 with recent form figures of 2055 and is stepping up in class. Usually held up and producing its effort late, it is unproven on standard to slow ground. Richard Hannon has a 10% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.8 from 1458 runs, while Alec Voikhansky is on 10% with an A/E of 1.06 from 101 rides.
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11Shellyandback41/100
Shellyandback is by Starspangledbanner who has an 11% win rate from 8367 runners. Roger Teal has a 9% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.87 from 510 runs, while Joe Leavy is on 5% with an A/E of 0.59 from 166 rides. The trainer and jockey combination records a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.79.
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12Pien De Dane39/100
Pien De Dane is by Arizona who has a 7% win rate from 472 runners. Hilal Kobeissi has a 0% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0 from 14 runs, while Ivan Rossi has no record at the venue. The trainer and jockey combination has limited data at this track.
KTB verdict
Showcasing Glory stands out with the highest KTB Fit Score and brings the best recent winning form to the table. Its official rating of 79 looks a useful benchmark in a race where the pace is expected to be steady, allowing its held-up style to come into play if timed correctly. The selection has the right blend of trainer and jockey course stats to give it every chance. The main dangers are Radical Bay and Boy Basilica, both of whom have solid pedigree and yard form at Kempton that could see them improve past some of the more exposed types. Comeonfeelthenoise and Little Copper are next in the Fit order and cannot be entirely dismissed if the race develops favourably.
KTB Selection Showcasing Glory
This is the narrative read of the 4:12 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest official rating in the field?
Showcasing Glory has the highest official rating on 79.
How many runners in this race are unproven on standard to slow ground?
Seven runners are unproven on standard to slow ground: Showcasing Glory, Comeonfeelthenoise, Little Copper, Penselwood, The Sergeon, Red Tail and the field horses with no runs on the surface.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Kempton AW among those represented?
James Owen has the strongest strike rate at Kempton AW on 17% with an A/E of 1.17 from 120 runs.
Which runners are noted as usually held up?
Showcasing Glory, Little Copper and Red Tail are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late.
What is the class move for The Sergeon and Red Tail?
The Sergeon is dropping in class while Red Tail is stepping up in class.
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