3:20 Punchestown
This 16-runner TRM Nutrition Handicap Hurdle at Punchestown over 2m4f45y on good ground brings together a competitive field featuring several high-class performers on official ratings ranging from 107 to 132. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Open Secret heading the list on 65, followed closely by Duke Silver on 63, Rockymountainbleu on 62, and both Park Of Kings and Avalo on 61. With a strong pace anticipated and several hold-up types in the line-up, the race promises to test stamina late on while rewarding those who can produce their effort at the right time.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners in Kevin's Pride, Boo Radley and Take The Free, with Majestic Force also prominent. This shape could see the pace collapse in the latter stages, playing into the hands of the many hold-up horses such as Open Secret, Duke Silver, Rockymountainbleu, Park Of Kings, Avalo and others. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the lap of a patient closer coming from off the strong gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Open Secret KTB Selection65/100
Open Secret is a high-class performer with a solid ratings profile and proven ability at this trip where he has placed once in three starts. He steps up from 1m5f today which poses a fresh question though he has shown he can be competitive on good ground with two placed efforts from five runs. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Punchestown from 1810 runs while this is the horse's first run here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the KTB Selection and arrives with recent form figures of 14200-. His jockey has a 16% strike rate at the track from 25 rides and an A/E of 2.4.
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2Duke Silver63/100
Duke Silver is a high-class performer with strong ratings and a solid history of competitive runs. He has placed twice from three starts at this track and is proven at today's trip having won once from three attempts. Dropping back in distance after a recent 2m6½f run, the trainer holds a 13% strike rate here from 392 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form reads 603-U0. The jockey has a 10% strike rate at Punchestown from 342 rides and an A/E of 1.09 while the yard and jockey together show 16% from 1041 runs with an A/E of 0.91.
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3Rockymountainbleu62/100
Rockymountainbleu is a smart performer with a solid course record here, winning once from seven runs at Punchestown. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m, though he has already won at this distance. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate from 647 runs at the track is a clear negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form is 74329-. The jockey has recorded a 13% strike rate at Punchestown from 76 rides and an A/E of 1.83, and the horse has won once and placed once from two starts on good ground.
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4Park Of Kings61/100
Park Of Kings is a high-class performer with strong course connections, including a win from five runs at Punchestown. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has won at before, and his record on good ground reads a solid one win from three starts with two places. The trainer's modest 8% strike-rate from 617 runs at this track is a clear negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form figures are 59U0-4. The yard and jockey have shown 0% from five runs together.
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5Avalo61/100
Avalo is a high-class performer with solid course connections, including a win from three runs at Punchestown and a victory at today's trip. He has shown mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last five starts, though he was well held on his most recent outing. First-time headgear is now fitted while the yard's 7% strike rate from 238 runs at this track suggests limited impact here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form reads 01-025. The yard and jockey together have an 11% strike rate from 195 runs with an A/E of 1.05.
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6Majestic Force56/100
Majestic Force is a high-class performer with a solid track record at Punchestown where he has won one of his two starts. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has won at before which looks a sensible move given his recent form figures include both wins and placed efforts over varying distances. The trainer's 11% strike rate from 1004 runs at this track is well established though the small overall career runs mean some aspects remain lightly tested. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
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7Kevin's Pride56/100
Kevin's Pride is a smart performer with solid recent form including a win and placed efforts that fit this level. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance once from three attempts while his record on good ground reads two wins and three places from six starts. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate from 220 runs at Punchestown is a negative. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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8Harpy Eagle54/100
Harpy Eagle is a smart performer who has shown strong placed form this season, finishing second in both of his last two starts. He has already won over today's trip and handles good ground, though his sole previous run here produced only a modest fourth. The trainer strikes at a solid 12% rate at Punchestown while the 5lb claimer adds value. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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9Elusive Ogie54/100
Elusive Ogie is a smart performer who has won at this trip and handles good ground well with two wins from seven attempts. Recent form has been mixed but the win at the trip shows he can deliver at this level when on song. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Punchestown from 32 runs is a clear negative. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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10Wonderful Everyday53/100
Wonderful Everyday is a smart performer who has won here from two runs and arrives in decent form with three straight placings. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question though the pedigree and style suggest it should cope. Mullins has a strong 23% strike rate at Punchestown from 2849 runs. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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11Friary Road52/100
Friary Road is a smart performer who has already won over this course. He has placed on good ground but is yet to win at this trip, stepping up in distance today for the first time. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate here from 450 runs. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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12Boo Radley52/100
Boo Radley is a smart performer who showed his true ability when winning last time out. He steps up in trip today for a yard with a strong 23% strike rate at this track from 2849 runs. The going remains an unknown on just five career starts. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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13Feud50/100
Feud is high-class on the figures and has the race history to back it up, though the recent form of 90F-50 is patchy and the yard's 3% strike-rate at Punchestown from 32 runs is poor. Two wins from seven starts on good ground read positively, while the first-time headgear is an interesting addition for a horse that has failed to win in three runs at this trip. First run at the track today. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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14Moon Mission48/100
Moon Mission is a smart performer who has placed here and won on good ground. He drops back in trip today having last run over 2m7f, which asks a fresh question. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 647 runs at Punchestown tempers expectations. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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15Take The Free48/100
Take The Free is a smart performer who showed his best when winning over this trip at Listowel last month before a lesser run over further at Galway. He drops back to a more suitable distance today with first-time headgear fitted. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate from 523 runs at Punchestown. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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16The Mediator45/100
The Mediator is a smart performer who has placed here without winning and brings solid ratings and race history to the table. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over just 1m4f so this distance is an unknown that could suit or expose him. The trainer operates at a 13% strike rate from 1810 runs at Punchestown while the horse is only 1-11 on good ground. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
Open Secret is the KTB Selection. He brings a high-class profile, a solid ratings mark of 127 and proven ability at this trip, while his hold-up style should be ideally suited to the strong pace that is expected to materialise. The step up from 1m5f asks a question but his competitiveness on good ground offers encouragement. Main dangers include Duke Silver with his strong course record and proven trip effectiveness, alongside Rockymountainbleu who boasts a win at the track, and the course winners Park Of Kings and Avalo who cannot be dismissed.
KTB Selection Open Secret
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the expected strong pace shape influence the hold-up horses in this field?
The strong pace, created by two or more habitual front-runners, could collapse late and is likely to favour hold-up horses such as Open Secret, Duke Silver, Rockymountainbleu, Park Of Kings and Avalo.
What is the course record for the top-rated horse Duke Silver at Punchestown?
Duke Silver has run three times here with figures of 3rd, 14th and 3rd, meaning he is placed twice but without a win.
Which horses in the field are making their first appearance at Punchestown?
Open Secret, Kevin's Pride, Elusive Ogie, Feud and Take The Free have no course form on record.
What headgear is being fitted for the first time to any of the runners?
First-time headgear is applied to Avalo, Feud and Take The Free.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Punchestown in this race?
W. P. Mullins has a 23% strike rate at Punchestown from 2849 runs.
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