4:25 Brighton
This Class 5 handicap at Brighton over an extended mile on good ground features a field of 15 modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Gone Rogue heads the figures on 62 with Norfolk Blue, Darvel, King of War and South Kensington completing the principals, all rated between 53 and 59. The KTB numbers highlight several course winners and trainers with strong Brighton records, yet overall ability remains limited and recent form is mixed across the board.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, including King of War and Tronido, which sets up the likelihood of the race collapsing in the closing stages. Most of the principals, including Gone Rogue, Norfolk Blue and Darvel, are hold-up types who produce their efforts late, while South Kensington tends to race in mid-division. This shape poses the key question of whether the prominent runners will pay for their exertions or if the hold-up brigade can time their runs to best effect from off the strong pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Gone Rogue KTB Selection62/100
Gone Rogue is a modest performer who has won three times at Brighton, one of them over this trip. His recent form reads 614166, showing a win and a couple of placed efforts on good ground alongside several below-par runs. The 5-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, and is drawn in stall 6. Trainer Gary & Josh Moore post a 17% strike rate at the track from 126 runs with an A/E of 0.99, while jockey Tom Queally has a 15% strike rate from 365 rides with an identical A/E of 0.99. He has been placed three times from six starts on good ground without winning, yet his course record of three wins from eight starts makes him the KTB selection.
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2Norfolk Blue59/100
Norfolk Blue is another modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Brighton and has solid placed form on good ground, recording one win and two places from four starts. The 3-year-old steps up in trip again today, having failed to win in three previous attempts at this distance, and his recent form of 252519 is rather up and down. Usually held up with high confidence and drawn in stall 11, he faces a yard that operates at a useful 20% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.16 from 114 runs. Jockey Tom Marquand matches that 20% strike rate from 228 rides with a positive A/E of 1.18, and the colt won on his sole previous course start.
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3Darvel57/100
Darvel is a modest 8-year-old who has won twice at Brighton from 14 starts and holds a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 40 runs. His recent form of 023452 shows consistent placed efforts, and he acts well on good ground where he has two wins and four places from 11 starts. Held up with high confidence from stall 12, the trainer holds a 10% strike rate at the track from 262 runs with an A/E of 0.77. Jockey David Probert operates at a 15% strike rate from 456 rides with an A/E of 0.93, and the horse has a course record of two wins from 14 starts.
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4King of War56/100
King of War is a modest performer who has won four times at Brighton from 18 starts and arrives in reasonable form having been placed on his last two outings at this trip. Stepping back up in distance today after his most recent run over 7f, he has three placed efforts from seven starts at this range. The 7-year-old is a front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently and is drawn in stall 2. Trainer Michael Wigham has a solid 21% strike rate at Brighton from 106 runs with an A/E of 1.16, while jockey John Egan posts a 12% strike rate from 428 rides with an A/E of 1.00. He has one win from 12 starts on good ground with six places.
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5South Kensington53/100
South Kensington is a limited horse who has won both starts at Brighton and also landed a race at today's trip. His form this year reads 157201 and he has failed to place in six runs on good ground. Stepping up in class today and typically settling in mid-division, the 5-year-old is drawn in stall 8. Trainer Adam Kirby holds a strong 30% strike rate at the track from a small sample of 10 runs with an A/E of 1.7. Jockey Charles Bishop has a 14% strike rate from 266 rides here with an A/E of 0.93, and the horse boasts a perfect two-from-two course record.
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6Dark Rosa52/100
Dark Rosa is a modest performer with a solid recent record of six consecutive placed efforts including three at today's trip. She has handled good ground well enough to be competitive but remains winless after 25 starts. The trainer has a strong 33% strike-rate at Brighton while the jockey's record here is more modest.
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7Platinum Prince51/100
Platinum Prince is a modest performer who has won once from seven runs at Brighton and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins from nine attempts. Dropping back to 7f today after a recent 1m2f run poses a fresh question but he has won three times at this trip from sixteen starts. The yard hold a respectable 17% strike rate here from 126 runs while the jockey has only one ride at the track so far.
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8Tronido51/100
Tronido is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little at this track on his only visit. He has won on good ground and at today's trip yet the wide draw in stall 15 adds to the negatives on a course where his trainer operates at a steady 11% strike rate. The jockey is still without a winner from 42 rides here.
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9Reader51/100
Reader is a modest performer who has shown some consistency this year with three placed efforts from five starts. Trainer Marcus Tregoning has a solid 17% strike rate at Brighton from 117 runs while Ashley Lewis is less effective with a 7% record from 28 rides here. Has twice tried this trip without success and the small sample on good ground leaves suitability unproven.
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10Daisy Roots49/100
Daisy Roots is a modest performer who has been placed on all three starts at Brighton without winning. Consistent rather than progressive of late with a string of mid-division finishes and only one win from 14 runs on good ground. Steps back up to a trip he has won over five times from 20 starts but is drawn wide in stall 10.
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11Inspectre48/100
Inspectre is a modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts, finishing a clear second here over this trip on his most recent outing. The yard have a solid record at Brighton and the horse remains open to a bit more improvement. Jockey is operating below the course average though and the trip remains something of a question.
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12Yachtsman48/100
Yachtsman is a modest performer with a patchy record and only one win from 12 starts. Steps up to 7f for the first time today while wearing headgear for the first time, both of which are fresh questions. Trainer and jockey each hold an 11% strike rate at Brighton from modest sample sizes.
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13Play Me47/100
Play Me is a modest performer who has won once in five runs at Brighton and also has a win at today's trip on his record. Drops back from 1m after a string of ordinary efforts and is drawn wide in stall 14. Trainer has a solid 10% strike-rate here while the jockey remains winless from 20 rides at the track.
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14Fresh Fade46/100
Fresh Fade is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Brighton and this looks a tough ask from stall nine. Steps up in trip for the first time today which adds an unknown element.
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15Connie Moon37/100
Connie Moon is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. Drops back from 1m2f to a trip she has tried three times without success while the trainer's poor 4% strike rate at Brighton is another negative. Jockey has a more respectable 12% record here and she has placed once from two runs on good ground.
KTB verdict
Gone Rogue is the KTB selection. A modest performer with three course wins including one at this trip, he has shown enough on good ground this year and benefits from a yard and jockey both with solid Brighton records. The strong pace should play to his strengths as a hold-up horse producing his effort late. Main dangers are Norfolk Blue, who won on his only previous visit to the track and has useful placed form on good ground, and the consistent Darvel, who has been in and out of the frame of late and boasts a good record at the trip. King of War could take advantage of his front-running style if the pace does not overcook, while South Kensington cannot be entirely dismissed given his unbeaten record at Brighton.
KTB Selection Gone Rogue
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 Brighton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Brighton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Brighton results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Brighton racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners present, raising the chance the pace could collapse late.
Which horses are the main front-runners in the race?
King of War tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Tronido is also a front-runner.
How many course wins does Gone Rogue have at Brighton?
Gone Rogue has three wins from eight starts at Brighton.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Brighton for the yard of the selection?
Gary & Josh Moore have a 17% strike rate at Brighton from 126 runs with an A/E of 0.99.
Which principal has the strongest trainer strike rate at the course?
South Kensington's trainer Adam Kirby has a 30% strike rate at Brighton from 10 runs with an A/E of 1.7.
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