2:45 Catterick
This Class 4 veterans' handicap over the extended five furlongs at Catterick on good to soft ground features a field of ten where the KTB Fit scores point to a competitive but not impossible puzzle. The top five in the KTB rankings are separated by just eight points, with Rosenpur heading the list on 63. Several runners have placed form at the track without winning, while others bring recent victories or strong course records, and the class moves are mixed with some dropping in grade and others stepping up.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners including Rosenpur, Belsito, The Gay Blade and Quercus. This setup could see the leaders go hard early and potentially collapse in the later stages, which would play into the hands of the hold-up performers such as Baldomero, Woodstock and Mister Sox. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms and hold on or if the race will fall apart to suit those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rosenpur KTB Selection63/100
Rosenpur is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form over this Catterick trip, finishing second twice and third once from four runs here. He steps back up to his winning distance today having mixed results on good to soft ground. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's stronger 15% record. Dropping in class from an OR of 82, he tends to make the running or race prominently which could be important in a race with a strong pace likely. His recent form reads 156491 and he comes here with a KTB Fit of 63.
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2Belsito59/100
Belsito is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last five starts. He has won on good to soft ground and at today's trip, though he is making his first visit to Catterick. Kevin Ryan has a respectable 14% strike rate here while Tom Eaves sits on 7%. Operating from an OR of 81 with recent form figures of 413215, he is a high-confidence front-runner whose prominent racing style will see him up with the strong pace. He holds a KTB Fit of 59.
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3Baldomero58/100
Baldomero is a fair 8-year-old who has been around the block with 50 career runs and recent form that includes a string of respectable placed efforts. He steps back up to a trip he has won at twice before though his record on good to soft is modest with just one placing from seven starts. The Appleby yard holds a solid 12 percent strike rate here while Kevin Stott is in the saddle for a first visit to Catterick. A hold-up performer with high confidence in that style, he is dropping in class from an OR of 81 with form figures of 369442 and a KTB Fit of 58.
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4Woodstock57/100
Woodstock is a fair handicapper who has been in consistent form this year and arrives here off the back of a solid fifth at Doncaster. He has been placed on all three previous visits to Catterick without winning, and has also shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground. He has won over today's trip and the yard and jockey both have established records at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he carries an OR of 80 with recent form of 224135 and a KTB Fit of 57.
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5Mister Sox55/100
Mister Sox is a modest performer who has won three times at Catterick from six starts and has also won at this trip. He showed his best form of the season when winning at this track on his penultimate start yet followed up with a poor run last time. The yard has a solid record here and the jockey is operating above the course average. Stepping up in class from an OR of 72 with form figures of 055361, he is a high-confidence hold-up type and holds a KTB Fit of 55.
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6Manila Scouse53/100
Manila Scouse is a fair handicapper who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time with six runs this year producing no better than sixth. He has placed on good to soft ground and has won over today's trip though his record at Catterick is modest with just a fourth from one run. The Tim Easterby yard has a solid 12% strike rate here from a large sample while Duran Fentiman knows the track well.
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7The Gay Blade52/100
The Gay Blade is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives on the back of a poor run over 7f. Drops back to a trip he has won at five times from 28 starts and has shown he can be competitive on good to soft. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's strong 29% record from 21 rides here.
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8Tyger Bay50/100
Tyger Bay is a fair 9-year-old who has won at this track from two visits and holds a solid 7-49 record at today's trip. He has shown good-to-soft form with a win and a place from just two runs on it and arrives in reasonable nick judged on his latest efforts. The yard has an 8% strike-rate from 36 runs here while David Allan posts an 11% record from nearly a thousand rides at Catterick.
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9Quercus46/100
Quercus is a modest performer who has won eight times at Catterick from 28 starts and also has a solid record at today's trip with nine wins from 45 runs. He showed his best this year when winning last time out and handles good to soft ground. The yard has a 10% strike rate here from a large sample while the claiming jockey is operating at 6% from 34 rides.
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10Another Investment43/100
Another Investment is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and ran no sort of race when last seen. He has won at today's trip but is 1 from 32 overall at the distance and has been beaten a long way on his only visit to Catterick. Trainer Nigel Tinkler holds a 12% strike rate from 332 runs here while 3lb claimer Alex Jary is 0-8 at the track.
KTB verdict
Rosenpur is the KTB Selection. A fair handicapper with consistent placed efforts at this Catterick trip, including two seconds and a third from four runs, he drops in class while returning to his winning distance. His prominent run-style fits the strong pace that is likely to be set here, and the combination of the trainer's modest course record being balanced by the jockey's stronger figures adds to his appeal. The main dangers are Belsito, who arrives in solid form with two wins from his last five and a front-running style that could see him contest the lead, and Baldomero, whose hold-up approach could be ideally suited if the pace collapses late. Woodstock and Mister Sox, both with strong Catterick placed or winning records, are others to consider in a race where the pace shape will be influential.
KTB Selection Rosenpur
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Catterick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Rosenpur, Belsito, The Gay Blade and Quercus are all front-runners who tend to make the running or race prominently.
Which runners are suited by a strong pace that could collapse late?
Hold-up horses such as Baldomero, Woodstock, Mister Sox, Manila Scouse and Another Investment are favoured if the leaders go too hard early.
Which horse has the best Catterick course record in the field?
Quercus has won eight times at Catterick from 28 starts, while Mister Sox has won three times from six runs here.
Who has the strongest jockey course record at Catterick among the principals?
Sean Kirrane on Mister Sox has a 17% strike rate at Catterick with an A/E of 1.13 from 119 rides.
Which runners are dropping in class for this race?
Rosenpur and Baldomero are both dropping in class.
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