3:12 Leopardstown
The Nord Anglia International School Dublin Foxrock Cup Handicap at Leopardstown brings together a field of 16 three-year-olds and older over 1m0f100y on good ground. With the KTB Fit ratings headed by Unauthorized on 73, the race features several lightly-raced three-year-olds alongside more exposed handicappers, and the overall standard looks fairly competitive for the grade. The KTB numbers point to a handful of course winners and several with solid recent placed efforts, though trainer and jockey records at the track vary markedly across the field.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is defined by a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to bridge in the straight. Uncle Goalie is the most likely to take up that front-running role given his natural inclination to make the running or race prominently, while Flanker Jet could track that pace from a handy position. The majority of the field, including the KTB selection Unauthorized and several other principals, are held-up or mid-division types who will need to time their efforts well off what could be a steady gallop. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters throughout or if the closers will be able to reel him in on this good surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Unauthorized KTB Selection73/100
Unauthorized arrives with a KTB Fit rating of 73 and is the clear selection. A useful performer on his day, he has been below form in his last three starts and now steps up markedly in trip, yet Leopardstown clearly suits having won here from one visit earlier in the season. The yard posts a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.58 from six runs, which is a positive, while good ground is fine on the evidence of one win from three starts. The booking of Conor Cusack, who has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.69 from nine rides, is viewed as a plus. Typically settling in midfield, he will need to produce his best to capitalise on the track affinity from draw 11.
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2Johnny Soda64/100
Johnny Soda is rated 64 on KTB Fit and is a useful performer who has won once from two starts at Leopardstown. He holds a solid record on good ground with two wins from four runs and drops back to a trip at which he has won three times from eight attempts, though his recent form has been mixed. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track from 480 runs carries a clear negative despite the jockey's 12% strike rate and A/E of 1.51 from 17 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has course-winning form to his name but will need to overcome the yard's poor record here to figure prominently from draw 13.
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3Uncle Goalie60/100
Uncle Goalie is assessed at 60 on KTB Fit and represents a fair three-year-old who has won both starts since switching to this yard. He showed his liking for the track when scoring here on his only previous visit and steps up in trip today having won once from two runs at this distance. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.29 from five runs, though the jockey's 4% strike rate and A/E of 0.64 from 426 rides is less encouraging. With a tendency to make the running or race on the pace, he could set the uncontested lead that the pace shape suggests, but his effectiveness on good ground remains untested with no previous runs on the surface.
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4Morehampton58/100
Morehampton comes in with a KTB Fit of 58 and is a fair performer who has shown more consistency lately. He finished a clear third over this course and distance on his most recent visit to Leopardstown and is one from one at today's trip, while he has also won on good ground. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at the track from 458 runs with an A/E of 0.73, and the 5 lb claimer is aboard. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has a placed effort from one run here and his recent form suggests he should be competitive once more despite the yard's modest record at the venue.
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5Oro Blanco57/100
Oro Blanco is rated 57 on KTB Fit and is a fair performer who has won twice on good ground. He finished a respectable fourth when tried here over shorter and steps up to this trip for the first time having been placed in his only previous run at the distance. The trainer continues to have a solid 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.83 from a large sample, while the 5 lb claimer takes the ride. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has placed form at the trip and course-and-distance credentials that make him an interesting contender from draw 8.
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6Pink Oxalis54/100
Pink Oxalis is a fair handicapper who has run to form on most recent starts and has already won over this trip and at Leopardstown. The draw in stall 15 looks far from ideal on a track where the inside is often favoured, the trainer has an 8% strike rate from 26 runs here, and the horse is 0-3 on good ground.
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7Dragon Of Malta52/100
Dragon Of Malta is a fair performer who has been in and out this year but showed his best when winning at Down Royal last time. He has won over today's trip in the past though steps back up from 7f today while his only run at Leopardstown was poor, and the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track is another negative.
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8Vega's Muse50/100
Vega's Muse is a fair performer who won over this trip here last year and has placed twice more from five runs at Leopardstown. Recent form has been patchy with a string of below-par efforts but the course record and good-ground statistics remain solid, though the trainer's modest 10% strike rate at the track from a huge sample suggests limited reliance.
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9Playin Cool48/100
Playin Cool is a fair performer who has won once and placed twice from three starts at Leopardstown. Recent form has been patchy with a best of fifth on his last two outings, though he has shown enough on good ground and at this trip to remain competitive, while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates here that sit below the course average.
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10Booyea47/100
Booyea is a fair performer who has placed once in five runs at Leopardstown without winning. He steps up in trip today having last run over 7f yet owns a win at this distance from 13 attempts and has shown solid form on good ground with three wins and six places from 12 starts, though the yard's modest 1% strike-rate from 89 runs at the track is a clear negative.
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11Eddie G41/100
Eddie G is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent sequence of 118532. He has run three times at Leopardstown without placing and the trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 480 runs at the track adds no encouragement, while he steps up in trip today having placed once in five runs at this distance.
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12Majestic King41/100
Majestic King is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year but did win over this trip earlier in the season. He has run just once at Leopardstown and was well beaten, while three runs on good ground have also failed to produce a win or place, and the trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here from a large sample.
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13Son Of Beauty41/100
Son Of Beauty is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form this year, including a win at this trip and a solid third here last time. He drops back from 1m1½f today which looks a sensible move given his 1-2 record at a mile, while the trainer has an 8% strike rate from 26 runs at Leopardstown.
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14Flanker Jet40/100
Flanker Jet is a fair performer who has mixed form this year and ran respectably when fourth over this trip on his only previous visit to Leopardstown. He has failed to win or place in two runs on good ground and the yard's poor record at the track is another negative, though stall one could help.
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15Terre De Vega39/100
Terre De Vega is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has placed twice at this trip and showed ability when second here over course and distance on his only previous visit to Leopardstown, though the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 14 runs at the track.
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16Highbury See See36/100
Highbury See See is a modest performer who has shown bits of form on this trip, winning once from 12 starts at the distance. He has run just once at Leopardstown, finishing sixth, and is only placed once from five runs on good ground, with first-time headgear now tried.
KTB verdict
Unauthorized is the KTB selection and looks to hold the strongest claims on the supplied figures. He has looked useful on his day, the track clearly suits given his win here from one visit, and the yard's solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown adds to the picture, with good ground also fine. The step up in trip is the main unknown, but the booking of Cusack is a positive and his ability can see him overcome recent below-par efforts. The main dangers are likely to come from Johnny Soda, who has course-winning form and a good record on this ground, and Uncle Goalie, who could take the uncontested lead and has won both starts for his current yard including at this track.
KTB Selection Unauthorized
This is the narrative read of the 3:12 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leopardstown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to secure the uncontested lead?
Uncle Goalie, given his front-running run-style and the lone-leader pace shape with high confidence.
How many wins has Unauthorized had at Leopardstown?
One win from one start.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Leopardstown for the yard of the KTB selection?
17% with an A/E of 1.58 from six runs.
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip according to the KTB Intelligence?
Unauthorized.
How many Leopardstown winners are there in the full field?
Several, including Unauthorized, Johnny Soda, Uncle Goalie, Pink Oxalis, Vega's Muse, Playin Cool and others with placed course form.
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