3:52 Navan
This 15-runner fillies maiden at Navan over 7f50y on yielding ground features a mix of lightly raced sorts, debutants and more exposed performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Right On Time and Celestial Siren both rated 55, ahead of Almost Okay and Oracle Of Delphi on 51. Overall the numbers suggest a race short on established winners, with several runners carrying modest form lines and unproven elements around trip, ground or course.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence and no obvious front-runner. Several runners, including Celestial Siren, Palace Fever, Nautic Star and Vishaya, like to race prominently or close to the pace, which should see them prominent early. Right On Time, The Hidden Garden, Elmakaya and Palina are held-up types who will look to come from off the pace in what is likely to become a race decided by when and where the effort is produced. The key question is which of the prominent runners can set a shape that does not leave them vulnerable to a late closer in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Right On Time KTB Selection55/100
Right On Time is the KTB Selection. She has only one run on her record, finishing a remote 13th over 6f at this track. The yard holds a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from 69 runs with an A/E of 1.77, though the jockey operates at just 4% from 566 rides here with an A/E of 0.68. She has had one run on yielding ground without placing and her sole course start produced no win or place. Stepping up to this untried 7f trip is a fresh question for a horse with very little else to go on, yet she emerges as the selection on the supplied KTB material. Her held-up run-style means she will be produced late in a race that should suit those ridden close to the pace.
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2Celestial Siren55/100
Celestial Siren is a fair filly who has shown consistent placed form this year, including a second here over course and distance on her penultimate start. She has been competitive at this trip on three of her last four runs yet remains winless after six outings. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.02 from 347 runs, while the jockey records a 6% strike rate with an A/E of 0.72 from 464 rides. She has been placed on all three starts on yielding ground without winning and has one course run that produced a placing. Usually racing prominently, she is likely to be on or close to the lead in a muddling, tactical contest.
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3Almost Okay51/100
Almost Okay is lightly raced with just two runs and a modest 04 form line so far. Dropping back from a mile to this untried 7f presents a fresh question while her Navan run was poor. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.99 from 129 runs and the jockey matches that 7% strike rate with an A/E of 0.91 from 184 rides. She has no runs on yielding ground so is unproven on the surface and her sole course start brought no win or place. Typically settling in midfield, she will look to make her move from a mid-division position in what is expected to be a tactical affair.
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4Oracle Of Delphi51/100
Oracle Of Delphi is a lightly raced 3-year-old with only a modest sixth on debut to go on. The small sample means little can be read into that run or his ability at this trip. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.02 from 347 runs, while the jockey records an 8% strike rate with an A/E of 1.02 from 124 rides. He has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface and has no course form on record. Usually settling in midfield on the limited evidence available, he will be ridden with patience in a race that lacks an obvious front-runner.
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5The Hidden Garden50/100
The Hidden Garden has shown very little in two starts to date and needs to improve markedly. The yard holds a solid 10% strike-rate at Navan from 49 runs with an A/E of 1.07, while the jockey is operating at a 6% rate from 90 rides with an A/E of 0.65. With only two career runs behind him the form has to be treated with real caution and he has no runs on yielding ground so is unproven on the surface. He has no course form on record. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a muddling, tactical race.
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6Elmakaya50/100
Elmakaya is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. Dropping back from a mile to this untried 7f looks a fresh question while the yard's solid 12% Navan strike rate from 819 runs offers some encouragement, though both trainer and jockey have below-average strike rates here. Her course run was poor and she has no runs on yielding ground so remains unproven on the surface.
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7Palina48/100
Palina is a lightly raced filly who showed some promise when third on debut over 1m2f. She drops back sharply in trip today to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question. The trainer strikes at 8% here from 74 runs with an A/E of 0.92 while the jockey operates at 10% from 683 rides with an A/E of 0.85. She has no runs on yielding ground so is unproven on the surface and has no course form on record.
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8Palace Fever47/100
Palace Fever showed little on debut when finishing eighth over this trip. The lightly-raced 3-year-old has only one run to go on so any improvement is possible but the small sample makes this hard to gauge. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Navan from 352 runs with an A/E of 0.83 while the jockey records an 11% strike rate from 568 rides with an A/E of 0.92. She has no runs on yielding ground so is unproven on the surface and has no course form on record.
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9Wynette46/100
Wynette is a first-time runner from a yard that operates at a 13% strike rate here from 1814 runs with an A/E of 0.76. The jockey has a modest 7% record from 96 rides at Navan with an A/E of 1. With no racecourse form to go on the pedigree offers the main guide but overall data confidence remains low and she has no course win on record.
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10Stella Bianca45/100
Stella Bianca is a debutant with very limited information available. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Navan from 523 runs with an A/E of 0.54 and the jockey is similarly quiet at the track with a 5% strike rate from 119 rides and an A/E of 0.9. Pedigree offers the only real clues here but overall confidence remains low and she has no course win on record.
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11Maybe Art44/100
Maybe Art has only one run in the book so the form is impossible to weigh up with any confidence. The drop back from 1m1f to this 7¼f trip poses a fresh question. The trainer is 0-9 at Navan while the jockey has a solid 9% strike rate here from 43 rides with an A/E of 1.16. He has no runs on yielding ground so is unproven on the surface and has no course form on record.
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12Jenny Spider44/100
Jenny Spider makes her debut for a yard that operates at a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from 672 runs with an A/E of 0.84. First-time headgear suggests they want to see her on her toes straight away. Pedigree offers the only real clues here and with low data confidence the picture remains tentative. She has no course win on record.
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13Nautic Star41/100
Nautic Star is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in five of eight starts including a third here over this trip. He has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive again from a fair draw but is unproven on yielding ground. The trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Navan with 11% and 10% strike rates respectively. He usually races prominently with high confidence in his run-style.
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14Freyas Charm40/100
Freyas Charm is a debutant with first-time headgear and a low-data profile that rests mainly on her sales and pedigree background. The yard has only three runs at Navan so far while the jockey has a 2% strike rate from 48 rides here with an A/E of 0.49. Connections are reaching for headgear on the first run which is rarely a strong sign and she has no course win on record.
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15Vishaya39/100
Vishaya is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. She drops back from a mile to a trip where she has already been placed once, though the shorter distance now asks a fresh question. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 12% strike rate here at Navan. She usually races prominently with high confidence in her run-style and has no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Right On Time is the KTB Selection in a race where several runners bring modest form and unproven elements. She represents a yard with a strong Navan record despite limited personal form, and the tactical nature of the race may suit her held-up style if the prominent runners overdo things. Celestial Siren brings the most consistent placed form and a course second over this distance, making her the most obvious danger on paper. Nautic Star and Vishaya also have placed form and prominent run-styles that could see them to the fore, while the lightly raced trio of Almost Okay, Oracle Of Delphi and Palina add further unknowns to a wide-open-looking maiden.
KTB Selection Right On Time
This is the narrative read of the 3:52 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Navan racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest placed form at this trip and course?
Celestial Siren has shown consistent placed form at this trip on three of her last four runs and finished second here over course and distance on her penultimate start.
Why is Right On Time the KTB Selection despite limited form?
Right On Time is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 55 despite one poor run at Navan because the yard holds a solid 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.77.
How many runners are unproven on yielding ground?
Ten runners have no runs on yielding ground and are therefore unproven on the surface: Almost Okay, Oracle Of Delphi, The Hidden Garden, Elmakaya, Palina, Palace Fever, Maybe Art, Nautic Star, Freyas Charm and Vishaya.
Which runners are expected to race prominently?
Celestial Siren, Palace Fever, Nautic Star and Vishaya are all noted as usually racing prominently or close to the lead, with Nautic Star and Vishaya carrying high-confidence run-style tags.
Which debutants are in the field and what headgear are they wearing?
Wynette, Stella Bianca, Jenny Spider and Freyas Charm are debutants. Jenny Spider and Freyas Charm both wear first-time headgear.
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