1:30 Ffos Las
This Class 4 maiden hurdle at Ffos Las over 2m4f on good ground brings together a field of 12, many of whom arrive with limited experience or questions to answer. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly grouped in the mid-40s to low-60s, underlining a race where potential and yard form will matter at least as much as proven ability. Baile An Or tops the KTB figures on the back of the yard's strong record at the venue.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely-run contest is expected with The Final Word and several prominent racers such as Justalargewhisky, Walk of Faith, Barrow Hill Lad and Lucky Bailly likely to press or contest the lead early. Baile An Or will settle in midfield while the hold-up performers Arcadian Star and JPR Two look for a strong pace to run off. The key question is whether the prominent group can sustain their effort or if the race will be won from off the pace in what should be a fair test.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Baile An Or KTB Selection62/100
Baile An Or has shown modest form across five starts and was well beaten on his most recent outing. He steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame at this distance on his only previous attempt. The yard hold a 28% strike rate at Ffos Las from 32 runs which is above their 14% at other courses while Brendan Powell has a 13% strike rate here from 136 rides in line with his 10% elsewhere. The horse typically settles in midfield. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 156/1091 (14%).
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2The Final Word55/100
The Final Word showed fair form when winning a bumper on debut before finishing third in a pair of novice hurdles. He steps up in trip today having not been seen for over a year and with only three career runs the small sample makes him hard to weigh up. The dam has had one other runner, not a winner. Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% strike rate at Ffos Las from 102 runs while Harry Cobden records 17% from 92 rides here. He tends to make the running or race on the pace. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 689/2834 (24%).
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3Justalargewhisky53/100
Justalargewhisky has a single third place from a bumper on debut last season and now returns after a long absence. The trip is stepped up today and remains untested, while the dam has produced only one other runner that failed to win. Trainer and jockey both record strike rates at Ffos Las that sit in line with their figures at other tracks. He usually races handily, on or close to the lead. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 31/152 (20%).
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4Walk of Faith52/100
Walk of Faith is lightly raced after just one run so must be read with caution. Half-brother to high-class chaser Minella Cocooner and from a family that has produced winners, though this one has yet to show anything like that level. Trainer and jockey both operate at their normal level around Ffos Las. He usually races handily, on or close to the lead. This represents a step up in class. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 99/659 (15%).
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5Barrow Hill Lad48/100
Barrow Hill Lad won on his only start here and has shown ability in two of his three starts overall. The step up from 2m to 2m4f is an unknown that asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both operate at their expected level at the track. He usually races handily, on or close to the lead. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 2/20 (10%).
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6JPR Two45/100
JPR Two is lightly raced with just three runs and a recent third that offers limited encouragement. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question of him. Half-brother to smart Grade 2 winner JPR One and the family has produced winners but the small sample means this remains very much unknown territory. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 2/11 (18%).
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7Lucky Bailly45/100
Lucky Bailly has shown little in three starts so far with a recent third at least offering some encouragement after earlier poor efforts. He steps up markedly in trip today which is an unknown and the small sample means going suitability is also untested. The trainer holds a 14% strike rate at Ffos Las from 76 runs in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey has only one ride at the track. He usually races handily, on or close to the lead. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 17/137 (12%).
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8Some Buck44/100
Some Buck is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard's 5% strike rate at Ffos Las sits below their overall figure, while Adam Wedge has a 14% record here that is above his general mark. Pedigree and sales background are the main pointers on low-confidence data. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 8/76 (11%).
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9Common People43/100
Common People is a debutant whose recent point-to-point form reads P/2-1. The half-brother to modest winner Unspeakable comes from a family that has produced only one other winner from four runners to race. Trainer Christian Williams has a 5% strike rate at Ffos Las from 172 runs, below his 10% elsewhere, while Jack Tudor records a 12% strike rate here in line with his overall figure. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 102/975 (10%).
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10Feel No Fear43/100
Feel No Fear is half-brother to a modest winner and out of a dam who has produced three winners from four runners to race. Connections are having their first runner at Ffos Las this season with a 0-17 record here. Data confidence is low for this debutant. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 12/89 (13%).
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11Arcadian Star43/100
Arcadian Star is a smart performer who showed useful form when placed over this trip on his second start. He has since mixed hurdles and fences without adding to his tally and was pulled up on his final two runs last season. Trainer is still seeking a first winner at Ffos Las from nine runs while the jockey's 6% strike rate here sits in line with his record elsewhere. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer and jockey strike rate is 65/326 (20%).
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12Ignite The Spark42/100
Ignite The Spark is a debutant with a limited pedigree. Half-brother to a modest winner and out of a dam who has produced one winner from three other runners, he cost nothing notable at the sales. Trainer is 1-30 at the track while jockey is 18-160 here, both in line with their figures elsewhere. Trainer and jockey strike rate is not supplied.
KTB verdict
Baile An Or is the KTB Selection. He brings the best of the yard's local record to a race where many opponents have either long absences, very few runs or limited encouragement on the track. The selection has modest form but the 28% trainer strike rate at Ffos Las from 32 runs stands out in this company. The Final Word, Justalargewhisky and Walk of Faith are the most interesting dangers on pedigree and potential, though each carries significant unknowns, while Barrow Hill Lad has the benefit of a course win.
KTB Selection Baile An Or
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Baile An Or | 9/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| The Final Word | 10/3 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Justalargewhisky | 5/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Walk of Faith | 9/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Barrow Hill Lad | 7/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| JPR Two | 40/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Lucky Bailly | 20/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Some Buck | 50/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Common People | 20/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Feel No Fear | 14/1 | Betfred, 12:03am |
| Arcadian Star | 5/2 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Ignite The Spark | 50/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:30 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ffos Las results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ffos Las racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Ffos Las?
Baile An Or's trainer has a 28% strike rate at Ffos Las from 32 runs, the highest in the field.
Who is likely to make the running?
The Final Word tends to make the running or race on the pace in a genuinely-run race.
Which runners have course form at Ffos Las?
Only Barrow Hill Lad has course form on record, having won on his only start here.
What family connections stand out in the field?
Walk of Faith is half-brother to Grade 1 winner Minella Cocooner, JPR Two is half-brother to Grade 2 winner JPR One, and several others have dams that have produced multiple winners.
Which horses are stepping up markedly in trip?
Lucky Bailly steps up markedly in trip, while Baile An Or, The Final Word, Justalargewhisky and Barrow Hill Lad all step up in trip.
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