What is James Ferguson's strike rate?

James Ferguson has won 126 of 953 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.2% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does James Ferguson do best at?

Doncaster by strike rate: 7 wins from 30 runners (23.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for James Ferguson?

Daniel Muscutt, with 443 runners since 2022 — 46% of the total. That pairing has won 72 (16.3%).

What is James Ferguson's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 950 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

James Ferguson

953 runners in the last 5 seasons · 162 individual horses

As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 96 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)

from 1 Jan 2022

126–953

Wins / Runs

13.2%

Strike rate

n=953

323 (34%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=950 · 0.85 incl. margin

−232.92

£1 level stake

n=953 at SP · −24.4%

£2.42m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

19%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 190 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 16% off breaks of two months or more (174 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 953 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Apr Fresh horses: 16.1% 35.3% when favourite Daniel Muscutt: 16.3% from 443 Sends off the favourite in 14% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Newcastle (AW) (22.1%, n=68), Wolverhampton (AW) (20.8%, n=101) and Doncaster (23.3%, n=30) — all clear of the yard's 13.2% baseline. It is weakest at Haydock (2.6% over 38 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 7.1% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.76). Daniel Muscutt rides 46% of the entries and edges the yard's average (16.3% vs 13.2%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (25%, n=36). 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Criterium de Saint-Cloud at Saint-Cloud (FR) (Oct 2021, £127,545). The stable star of the record: Drama (GB) — 5 wins from 19 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

16.1%+2.9

n=174 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −16.27

New recruits · first run for the yard

13%−0.2

n=23 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −7.75

Debutants · first career start

8.7%−4.5

n=127 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −25.44

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11.8%−1.4

n=85 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −20.92

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

14.3%+1.1

n=7 · A/E 2.02 · £1 +3.00

When favourite

35.3%

n=136 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −11.88

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.6%−1.6

n=69 · A/E 1.12 · £1 +12.62

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.1%−6.1

n=42 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −23.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 1m5f – 2m 25% vs 13.2% · n=36

At Haydock 2.6% vs 13.2% · n=38

At Newcastle (AW) 22.1% vs 13.2% · n=68

At Wolverhampton (AW) 20.8% vs 13.2% · n=101

At Doncaster 23.3% vs 13.2% · n=30

With Oisin Murphy 22.2% vs 13.2% · n=36

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 454 72 15.9% −64.28

Good 191 26 13.6% −23.37

Good to Firm 168 14 8.3% −68.44

Good to Soft 73 8 11% −33.56

Soft 59 6 10.2% −35.27

Heavy 7 0 0% −7.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 112 16 14.3% −35.42

Wolverhampton (AW) 101 21 20.8% +25.67

Southwell (AW) 72 11 15.3% −25.18

Newcastle (AW) 68 15 22.1% +16.05

Chelmsford City (AW) 57 5 8.8% −20.63

Lingfield (AW) 44 4 9.1% −24.77

Yarmouth 44 5 11.4% −23.78

Haydock 38 1 2.6% −35.12

Windsor 37 2 5.4% −28.90

Newbury 33 5 15.2% +18.48

Newmarket 32 4 12.5% +10.50

Doncaster 30 7 23.3% +2.39

Newmarket 26 3 11.5% −6.50

Leicester 26 5 19.2% +9.08

Goodwood 24 1 4.2% −21.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 358 51 14.2% −45.14

Class 4 274 33 12% −101.19

Class 6 139 24 17.3% −5.49

Class 2 81 6 7.4% −39.90

Class 3 59 9 15.3% −17.70

Class 1 42 3 7.1% −23.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 153 51 33.3% 1.05 −15.38

2nd–3rd fav 269 44 16.4% 0.95 −52.04

4th–6th fav 326 25 7.7% 0.96 −84.50

7th+ in betting 205 6 2.9% 0.94 −81.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Diderot (GB)from G M Lyons · then Julie Camacho 21 3 10 7 Feb 25

Papagei (GB)then Thomas Gibney 20 3 8 23 Oct 25

Dibble Dabble (GB) 20 3 7 4 Sep 25

Drama (GB) 19 5 8 1 Oct 25

Bernalda (GB) 16 2 6 17 Nov 25

Menalippe (IRE) 16 2 4 11 Jul 23

Karakula Dancer (GB)then Martin Dunne 15 3 8 6 Jul 26

Wonder Legend (IRE) 15 5 9 2 Aug 25

First Folio (GB)from H-F Devin · then Julie Camacho 15 1 3 7 Oct 23

Shabu Shabu (IRE)then Matt Crawley 14 1 4 25 Apr 26

Cyclonite (USA) 13 2 8 27 Jun 25

Carpathian (IRE) 13 1 5 31 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 162 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Chris Wall (2); 53 had their first archived run for this yard.

33 have since run for another yard, most often for Olly Murphy (3) and B F Brookhouse (2); 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

192615211212811146929

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDaniel Muscutt

46% of all rides
16.3% SR · A/E 1.13

RiderRWSR£1

Daniel Muscutt 443 72 16.3% −34.70

Jonny Peate 65 6 9.2% −33.68

Saffie Osborne 42 3 7.1% −25.40

Oisin Murphy 36 8 22.2% −10.44

Ray Dawson 32 4 12.5% −16.62

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→

171

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.99m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 33 wins

El Bodegon (IRE) — Criterium de Saint-Cloud (2yo) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Oct 2021 · Group 1

£127,545

Deauville Legend (IRE) — Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) York · Aug 2022 · Group 2

£113,420

Deauville Legend (IRE) — Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Newmarket · Jul 2022 · Group 3

£113,420

Notable horses

Drama (GB) Wonder Legend (IRE) Awesomedude (GB) Arabian King (GB) Mack The Knife (IRE) Prince Eric (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Sea The Stars (IRE) 22.2% · 16–72

Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,937 runs since 2008 (1,110 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 453. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.

Dark Angel (IRE) 12.5% · 5–40

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,878 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Masar (IRE) 8.6% · 3–35

Progeny have won 11.7% of 1,211 runs since 2008 (173 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.8% from 165. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8.3% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.2% from 165. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 217.

Wootton Bassett (GB) 15.2% · 5–33

Progeny have won 13.1% of 5,637 runs since 2008 (788 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.1% from 161.

Havana Grey (GB) 18.8% · 6–32

Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,538 runs since 2008 (416 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.3% from 408.

Zoustar (AUS) 13.3% · 4–30

Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,739 runs since 2008 (313 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.3% from 329. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.6% from 193.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,219 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,219 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 November 2019 to 17 July 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Jul 26 Newbury God Given Talent (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Apple Print & Creative Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 6th 20/1

14 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Luan (FR)J: Billy Loughnane Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 13/8F

07 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Last Flight (GB)J: Jonny Peate Sky Sports Racing Sky 512 HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 22/1

07 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Nautical Sky (GB)J: Jonny Peate Cavani Sartorial Classified Stakes (Div 1)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 11/2

06 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Karakula Dancer (GB)J: Liam Wright Roy Grimwood Memorial HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 9/2

06 Jul 26 Lingfield (AW) Whazzimo (GB)J: Daniel Muscutt Follow attheraces On Instagram HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 17/2

26 Jun 26 Newmarket Khuskhas (GB)J: Robert Havlin Air Charter Service HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 20/1

26 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Luan (FR)J: Mr Henry Callan JenningsBet In Newcastle Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 1st 9/2

18 Jun 26 Ascot Celtic Charioteer (GB)J: Jonny Peate Chesham Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th 100/1

18 Jun 26 Yarmouth Yumuri (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Download The QuinnBet App EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 8th 7/1

16 Jun 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Last Flight (GB)J: Liam Wright Call 01902 390016 To Name A Race HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 18/1

16 Jun 26 Ascot God Given Talent (IRE)J: William Buick Coventry Stakes (Group 2)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Firm · 21 ran 19th 25/1

13 Jun 26 Leicester Gifts Differing (GB)J: Daniel Muscutt Best Ticket Prices Online At leicester-racecourse.co.uk HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 8 ran 6th 12/1

13 Jun 26 Bath Whazzimo (GB)J: Jonny Peate Marsha Naify British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 50/1

13 Jun 26 Sandown Flash Of Fire (GB)J: Oisin Murphy BetMGM Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 7th 4/1

11 Jun 26 Nottingham Song Of The Stars (GB)J: Harry Vigors Watch On RacingTV HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Soft · 8 ran 1st 7/2

10 Jun 26 Kempton (AW) Karakula (GB)J: Toby Moore Unibet Supports Safer Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 6th 11/2

10 Jun 26 Yarmouth Cavolo Nero (GB)J: Jonny Peate Royal Ascot On Sky Sports Racing HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 11 ran 1st 9/2

08 Jun 26 Windsor Nautical Sky (GB)J: Saffie Osborne Network Airline Services HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 8/1

08 Jun 26 Leicester Celtic Charioteer (GB)J: Jonny Peate Go West Live At LeicesterRaces Saturday 4th July Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 1st 9/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is James Ferguson's strike rate?: James Ferguson has won 126 of 953 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.2% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Ferguson do best at?: Doncaster by strike rate: 7 wins from 30 runners (23.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for James Ferguson?: Daniel Muscutt, with 443 runners since 2022 — 46% of the total. That pairing has won 72 (16.3%).
What is James Ferguson's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 950 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.