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Jockey profile

John Shinnick

902 rides in the lifetime window · 440 individual horses
As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 2 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
67–902
Wins / Runs
7.4%
Strike rate
n=902
185 (21%)
Placed
1.12
Fair A/E
n=902 · 0.90 incl. margin
−303.30
£1 level stake
n=902 at SP · −33.6%
£908k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.6%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, winning on 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12). In Group and Graded company the record reads 16% (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 902 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr Fresh horses: 10.4% 33.3% when favourite Terence O'Brien: 11.8% from 254 LTO winners: 15.5% Claiming: 7.5% Group/Graded: 16.1%
The read

The record is strongest at Clonmel (16.7%, n=66), clear of the rider's 7.4% baseline. It is weakest at Thurles (0% over 40 rides) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads well at 16.1% (n=31, Fair A/E 2.31). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 10.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.93 and +12.00 to a £1 stake over 192 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Terence O'Brien supplies 28% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.8% vs 7.4%, A/E 1.22) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Class 1 (14.7%, n=34). 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan (Nov 2025, £59,000). Seasonally, the rider fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.8%−2.6
n=440 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −209.67
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
15.5%+8.1
n=58 · A/E 1.09 · £1 +6.58
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
10.4%+3.0
n=192 · A/E 1.93 · £1 +12.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=54 · A/E 1.38 · £1 +12.12
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.5%+0.1
n=724 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −265.71
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.8%−1.6
n=537 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −221.54
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.1%+8.7
n=31 · A/E 2.31 · £1 +20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Clonmel 16.7% vs 7.4% · n=66
On last-time-out winners 15.5% vs 7.4% · n=58
In Group / Graded races 16.1% vs 7.4% · n=31
At Thurles 0% vs 7.4% · n=40
At Listowel 0% vs 7.4% · n=36
In Class 1 14.7% vs 7.4% · n=34
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 611 45 7.4% −174.13
Chase 150 17 11.3% −21.25
Flat 128 5 3.9% −94.92
NH Flat 13 0 0% −13.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 305 22 7.2% −108.54
Good 253 15 5.9% −124.42
Good to Soft 177 12 6.8% −44.50
Heavy 128 14 10.9% −4.42
Standard (AW) 25 3 12% −10.42
Good to Firm 14 1 7.1% −11.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Limerick 77 6 7.8% +0.83
Cork 76 7 9.2% −40.75
Clonmel 66 11 16.7% +16.08
Punchestown 62 3 4.8% −20.00
Wexford 50 4 8% −12.50
Tramore 43 5 11.6% −12.59
Kilbeggan 42 4 9.5% −20.70
Killarney 42 2 4.8% +0.00
Ballinrobe 42 5 11.9% +0.00
Thurles 40 0 0% −40.00
Listowel 36 0 0% −36.00
Naas 32 3 9.4% −21.75
Fairyhouse 31 2 6.5% +16.50
Tipperary 30 1 3.3% −25.00
Gowran Park 26 2 7.7% −18.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 34 5 14.7% +17.00
Class 6 10 2 20% +0.25
Class 5 9 0 0% −9.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 60 18 30% 1.27 +6.12
2nd–3rd fav 125 19 15.2% 1.04 −20.42
4th–6th fav 204 18 8.8% 1.27 −13.00
7th+ in betting 513 12 2.3% 0.92 −276.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.1% completed · 761 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 150 73.3% 10 5 25 0 0
Hurdle 611 89.2% 9 7 46 3 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Answer To Kayf (GB) 16 4 8 11 Apr 26
Stellar Symphony (IRE) 16 2 6 24 Jul 25
Pray Tell (IRE) 12 2 5 15 May 26
High Honour (GB) 12 1 3 16 Nov 25
Emancipator (IRE) 12 3 3 20 Apr 25
Whiskeywealth (IRE) 11 2 3 8 Mar 25
Nytol (IRE) 10 2 3 17 Jul 26
Cathys Quest (IRE) 10 1 2 16 Oct 25
Lep Around (IRE) 9 1 4 18 Oct 26
Ellies Rock (IRE) 9 1 2 2 Jul 26
Must Be Dreaming (IRE) 9 1 1 4 Jul 25
Kilmurry Jj (IRE) 9 2 3 15 Nov 24
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 440 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
2 from 10
Only 10 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
8119154221091076
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardTerence O'Brien
28% of all rides
11.8% SR · A/E 1.22
TrainerRWSR£1
Terence O'Brien 254 30 11.8% −50.42
Mrs Lorna Fowler 32 4 12.5% +27.91
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
67
Archived wins
5
Pattern / graded wins
£908k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 22 wins
Answer To Kayf (GB) — Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Navan · Nov 2025 · Grade 3
£59,000
Thisistheway (IRE) — Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Hurdle Series Final Punchestown · Apr 2025
£44,250
Colonel Mustard (FR) — Railway Bar Lismullen Hurdle (Grade 2) Navan · Nov 2025 · Grade 2
£29,500
Notable horses
Answer To Kayf (GB) Emancipator (IRE) Doitforjane Sid (IRE) Stellar Symphony (IRE) Pray Tell (IRE) Whiskeywealth (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mahler (GB) 7.5% · 3–40
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,901 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Yeats (IRE) 23.1% · 6–26
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,863 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 821.
Valirann (FR) 16% · 4–25
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,458 runs since 2018 (160 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 6.9% from 350.
Fame And Glory (GB) 16.7% · 3–18
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,217 runs since 2016 (503 horses).
Walk In The Park (IRE) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,107 runs since 2011 (713 horses).
Ask (GB) 11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,223 runs since 2014 (283 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 902 · newest first

The latest 50 of 902 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 September 2018 to 12 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Nov 26 Thurles (IRE) Synchronize (IRE)T: J Morrison www.thurlesraces.ie Handicap Steeplechase21.5f · Good · 15 ran UR 20/1
12 Nov 26 Thurles (IRE) Banjaxed (GB)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler Horse & Jockey Handicap Steeplechase18f · Good · 12 ran 12th 33/1
10 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Ard Roisin (IRE)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler Irish Stallion Farms EBF Academy Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 1st 40/1
09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Leonard Vallis (FR)T: Terence O'Brien Matchbook 50/5 Series Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran F 13/8
07 Nov 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Devine Genius (FR)T: J Morrison PRL Group Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 6th 300/1
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Courtbrack Boy (IRE)T: Terence O'Brien Prior Park Service Station Clonmel Handicap Steeplechase17f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 1st 9/1
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Dunville Destiny (IRE)T: Terence O'Brien Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 11 ran 8th 150/1
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Bog Cross (IRE)T: Miss M Harding Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good · 12 ran 7th 40/1
03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Synchronize (IRE)T: J Morrison William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 9th 28/1
01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Filly Butler (IRE)T: G Ahern Paddy Power 'Did You Watch The Breeders Cup At All?' Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 19 ran 4th 125/1
26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Wildhorserider (IRE)T: Terence O'Brien COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Hurdle24f · Heavy · 19 ran PU 28/1
26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Bog Cross (IRE)T: Miss M Harding Corrib Oil Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 20 ran 7th 100/1
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Holly's Thunder (IRE)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler COLM QUINN BMW Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 13/2
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Lanzhou (FR)T: J P Flavin Brasserie On The Corner Handicap Steeplechase18f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 1st 16/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Banjaxed (GB)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 10 ran PU 16/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Ballito Beauty (IRE)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 8th 66/1
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Lep Around (IRE)T: Miss M Harding Limerick Show Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 10th 80/1
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Bog Cross (IRE)T: Miss M Harding Irish Wire Products (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 7th 100/1
13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Julie's Moon (IRE)T: Ms Margaret Mullins William Hill Challenge Series 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 9 ran 8th 250/1
11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Synchronize (IRE)T: J Morrison Kendellen Construction Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Good · 14 ran 8th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 22 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · to 9 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is John Shinnick's strike rate?
John Shinnick has won 67 of 902 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Shinnick do best at?
Clonmel by strike rate: 11 wins from 66 rides (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does John Shinnick ride most for?
Terence O'Brien, with 254 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 30 (11.8%).
Is John Shinnick in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Shinnick's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 902 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 14 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).