Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−9.1
n=24 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −24.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−9.1
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−9.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−9.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10%+0.9
n=10 · A/E 2.48 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
0%
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.3%−2.8
n=48 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −28.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 6f – 7f3.2% vs 9.1% · n=31
With claiming riders up6.3% vs 9.1% · n=48
With Julian Pietropaolo6.1% vs 9.1% · n=33
On Soft going6.5% vs 9.1% · n=31
With a new jockey booking10.9% vs 9.1% · n=55 · A/E 2.02
In Flat races9.3% vs 9.1% · n=97 · A/E 1.48
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat9799.3%+18.50
Hurdle100%−1.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3126.5%+7.00
Good29310.3%+3.00
Heavy15320%+25.00
Standard (AW)1000%−10.00
Good to Soft9111.1%−3.50
Good to Firm500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Curragh20315%+28.00
Cork1600%−16.00
Down Royal10220%+24.00
Dundalk (AW)700%−7.00
Naas700%−7.00
Roscommon500%−5.00
Galway5240%+16.00
Gowran Park400%−4.00
Leopardstown4125%+3.00
Ballinrobe3133.3%+2.50
Tipperary300%−3.00
Killarney200%−2.00
Limerick200%−2.00
Listowel200%−2.00
Newcastle (AW)200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6300%−3.00
Class 5200%−2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite700%0.00−7.00
2nd–3rd fav12325%1.81+5.50
4th–6th fav20420%2.93+35.00
7th+ in betting6023.3%1.25−17.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f3113.2%−22.00
1m – 1m1f27311.1%+9.50
1m2f – 1m4f23313%+9.00
1m5f – 2m9222.2%+29.00
Under 6f700%−7.00
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
2m5f – 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20255024%−15.00
202649714.3%+31.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9377.5%−15.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4349.3%−14.00
17+ runners2328.7%+20.00
11-13 runners2000%−20.00
8-10 runners10220%+21.50
5-7 runners3133.3%+9.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 18 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 18 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J F Levins (3) and George Boughey (2); 2 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard, most often for Aidan Melia (2) and Paul W Flynn (2); 13 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0·14025511052100
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,111 runs since 2008 (217 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.1% from 198. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 245.
Progeny have won 4.4% of 90 runs since 2008 (15 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 99 · newest first
The latest 50 of 99 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 May 2025 to 18 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Maurice Andrew Ahern's strike rate?
Maurice Andrew Ahern has won 9 of 99 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Maurice Andrew Ahern in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Maurice Andrew Ahern's Fair A/E?
1.43, from 99 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Maurice Andrew Ahern·SR 9.1%·A/E 1.43
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