What is Luke Catton's strike rate?

Luke Catton has won 78 of 818 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.5% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Luke Catton do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 7 wins from 38 rides (18.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Luke Catton ride most for?

Stuart Williams, with 165 rides since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (10.3%).

Is Luke Catton in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Luke Catton's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 816 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Luke Catton

818 rides in the lifetime window · 453 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 9 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

78–818

Wins / Runs

9.5%

Strike rate

n=818

213 (26%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=816 · 0.85 incl. margin

−162.26

£1 level stake

n=818 at SP · −19.8%

£744k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (95 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 818 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 28.3% when favourite Stuart Williams: 10.3% from 165 First rides: 9.7% LTO winners: 14.7% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Brighton (18.4%, n=38), clear of the rider's 9.5% baseline. It is weakest at Southwell (AW) (2.2% over 45 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14.7% (n=95, Fair A/E 0.76), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.4% (n=74, Fair A/E 0.79). Stuart Williams supplies 20% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.3%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

9.7%+0.2

n=453 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −178.05

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14.7%+5.2

n=95 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −38.73

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.7%−0.8

n=126 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −12.41

When favourite

28.3%

n=60 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −18.93

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.3%−0.2

n=701 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −121.39

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.4%−4.1

n=74 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −47.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.5

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With John & Thady Gosden 22.2% vs 9.5% · n=45

At Brighton 18.4% vs 9.5% · n=38

At Southwell (AW) 2.2% vs 9.5% · n=45

At Yarmouth 2.4% vs 9.5% · n=41

With Ian Williams 2.5% vs 9.5% · n=40

With Jim Boyle 14.6% vs 9.5% · n=123

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 402 35 8.7% −31.11

Good to Firm 151 21 13.9% +8.71

Good 131 10 7.6% −83.36

Good to Soft 61 4 6.6% −39.00

Soft 52 5 9.6% −11.50

Heavy 13 2 15.4% −4.50

Firm 8 1 12.5% −1.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 102 7 6.9% +20.33

Wolverhampton (AW) 84 7 8.3% +30.00

Chelmsford City (AW) 79 6 7.6% −36.38

Lingfield (AW) 77 8 10.4% −19.25

Southwell (AW) 45 1 2.2% −36.00

Yarmouth 41 1 2.4% −36.00

Brighton 38 7 18.4% +13.20

Nottingham 29 4 13.8% −5.25

Windsor 28 3 10.7% +4.50

Bath 27 3 11.1% −11.25

Epsom 26 2 7.7% −13.75

Leicester 23 2 8.7% −6.50

Lingfield 22 5 22.7% +1.13

Doncaster 20 2 10% −12.12

Newbury 18 3 16.7% +12.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 305 27 8.9% −119.16

Class 5 296 39 13.2% +88.94

Class 4 151 9 6% −81.79

Class 3 35 1 2.9% −33.75

Class 2 26 2 7.7% −11.50

Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 74 19 25.7% 0.86 −25.05

2nd–3rd fav 134 25 18.7% 1.08 −3.21

4th–6th fav 284 26 9.2% 1.12 −5.00

7th+ in betting 326 8 2.5% 0.74 −129.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Got No Dollars (IRE) 20 2 6 1 Jul 24

Buy The Dip (GB) 13 3 5 9 Jul 26

Mister X (IRE) 13 3 4 11 Jul 23

Irezumi (GB) 12 2 6 15 Sep 25

Hodler (GER) 12 1 4 2 Jul 25

Shamshon (IRE) 12 0 6 2 Mar 23

Secret Strength (IRE) 11 2 5 4 Apr 25

Soyounique (IRE) 10 3 8 28 Jun 22

Tactical Control (GB) 8 0 0 3 Apr 25

Botas (IRE) 8 2 5 12 Jul 24

Quinault (GER) 8 4 5 18 May 24

Cuban Cigar (GB) 8 0 3 13 Sep 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 453 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

9145118971399109

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardStuart Williams

20% of all rides
10.3% SR · A/E 1.09

TrainerRWSR£1

Stuart Williams 165 17 10.3% −60.85

Jim Boyle 123 18 14.6% +5.76

Richard Hannon 70 5 7.1% +56.50

John & Thady Gosden 45 10 22.2% −7.28

Ian Williams 40 1 2.5% −19.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

Archived wins

£744k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 17 wins

Quinault (GER) — bet365 Handicap Ascot · Sep 2023 · Class 2

£41,232

Believitanducan (IRE) — Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Apprentice Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Ascot · May 2026 · Class 4

£13,851

Nebras (GB) — Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Newcastle (AW) · Nov 2025 · Class 2

£13,190

Notable horses

Quinault (GER) Buy The Dip (GB) Mister X (IRE) Soyounique (IRE) Got No Dollars (IRE) Irezumi (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Showcasing (GB) 6.1% · 2–33

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,665 runs since 2014 (1,000 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Oasis Dream (GB) 19% · 4–21

Progeny have won 11.7% of 18,052 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

Profitable (IRE) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,450 runs since 2021 (358 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 15% · 3–20

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,606 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Mayson (GB) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,396 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,875 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 818 · newest first

The latest 50 of 818 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 July 2016 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Rhythm N Rock (IRE)T: John Butler Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 5th 8/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Tomarlo (GB)T: Jennie Candlish All-Weather Championship Is Back Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 9/2

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Rhythm N Rock (IRE)T: John Butler CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 14/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Wait Geordie (GB)T: Hugo Palmer bettingsites.co.uk Free Bets Offers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 18/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) El Paso (GER)T: Alan King bettingsites.co.uk Best Betting Offers EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 100/1

10 Oct 26 York Water To Wine (FR)T: John & Thady Gosden Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 10.5f · Soft · 18 ran 16th 6/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Wait Geordie (GB)T: Hugo Palmer Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 6th 20/1

07 Oct 26 Nottingham Golden Harvest (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 22/1

06 Oct 26 Leicester Albeseeingyer (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 4th 9/1

05 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Chops (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Download The Raceday Ready App Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 4 ran 4th 80/1

29 Sep 26 Bath Dryburgh (IRE)T: Oli Rix Jdl Consultants Ltd Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 17/2

21 Sep 26 Leicester Albeyours (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 4th 7/1

15 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Chops (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 300/1

11 Sep 26 Sandown Plan C (IRE)T: Alan King Sporting Times Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 5/1

04 Sep 26 Haydock Magic Music (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Arete Foundation Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 10 ran 6th 8/1

01 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sevenkingsmustdie (IRE)T: Alan King Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 5/2

01 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Casablanca Dream (IRE)T: Marco Botti Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 100/1

31 Aug 26 Epsom Amused (IRE)T: Jim Boyle Geoff Lewis Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 7/2J

30 Aug 26 Yarmouth Triple Double A (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer Bodhi Solutions - Constructing Champions Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 4/1

29 Aug 26 Windsor La Kosmos (GB)T: Alan King Bet £20 Get £40 In Free Bets At Matchbook.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Soft · 13 ran 3rd 17/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 26 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Luke Catton's strike rate?: Luke Catton has won 78 of 818 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.5% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Luke Catton do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 7 wins from 38 rides (18.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Luke Catton ride most for?: Stuart Williams, with 165 rides since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (10.3%).
Is Luke Catton in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Luke Catton's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 816 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.