Mr P Roche
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 40 times a season, winning on 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 14% off breaks of two months or more (74 runs).
The record is strongest at Punchestown (13.2%, n=53), clear of the rider's 7.9% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 13.5% (n=74, Fair A/E 1.67). C Roche supplied 32% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record read poorly off a 31-60-day break — 2% over 51 rides, 5.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.64 across 104 rides (3.8% strike, −39.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the rider fired Feb–Mar.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 522 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 522 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 6 April 2017.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Mr P Roche's strike rate?
- Mr P Roche has won 28 of 356 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Mr P Roche do best at?
- Punchestown by strike rate: 7 wins from 53 rides (13.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Mr P Roche ride most for?
- C Roche, with 114 rides since 2008 — 32% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (9.6%).
- What is Mr P Roche's Fair A/E?
- 1.05, from 356 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.