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Jockey profile

Nathan Crosse

2,835 rides in the lifetime window · 1,494 individual horses
As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
In form — 2 winners last 14 days Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
154–2,835
Wins / Runs
5.4%
Strike rate
n=2,835
536 (19%)
Placed
0.98
Fair A/E
n=2,830 · 0.78 incl. margin
−945.38
£1 level stake
n=2,835 at SP · −33.3%
£2.79m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
4%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 150 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 5% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (165 rides). The rider is in form now — 2 winners in the last fortnight, above their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,835 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 21.8% when favourite W McCreery: 7.4% from 658 LTO winners: 9.7% Claiming: 7.3% Rides the favourite in 3% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Sligo (9.8%, n=41), clear of the rider's 5.4% baseline. It is weakest at Roscommon (1.4% over 69 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 9.7% (n=165, Fair A/E 0.89). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 2.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.68 and −9.25 to a £1 stake over 103 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the rider is firing: 2 winners from 15 rides in the last 14 days (13.3%, 7.9pts above the 5.4% baseline). W McCreery supplies 23% of the rides and edges the rider's average (7.4% vs 5.4%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (9%, n=201). 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Irish EBF Auction Series Race Final at Naas (Oct 2024, £70,800).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
5.4%+0.0
n=1,494 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −464.47
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
9.7%+4.3
n=165 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −33.74
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
4.1%−1.3
n=482 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −182.17
When favourite
21.8%
n=87 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −23.06
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.3%+1.9
n=1,153 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −288.56
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.2%−0.2
n=1,491 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −482.89
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
2.9%−2.5
n=103 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −9.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 9.7% vs 5.4% · n=165
With Kevin Thomas Coleman 10.8% vs 5.4% · n=37
Off a 0-7-day break 9% vs 5.4% · n=201
With John James Feane 10.5% vs 5.4% · n=38
At Roscommon 1.4% vs 5.4% · n=69
At Sligo 9.8% vs 5.4% · n=41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 885 47 5.3% −344.17
Soft 723 32 4.4% −275.52
Standard (AW) 698 35 5% −146.90
Heavy 238 18 7.6% −58.79
Good to Soft 160 12 7.5% −51.50
Good to Firm 131 10 7.6% −68.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 693 35 5.1% −141.90
Curragh 400 22 5.5% −158.55
Naas 218 10 4.6% −82.29
Gowran Park 187 9 4.8% −124.00
Navan 186 14 7.5% −8.00
Leopardstown 174 8 4.6% −83.00
Cork 162 10 6.2% −27.00
Limerick 99 8 8.1% −44.12
Galway 97 4 4.1% −71.12
Bellewstown 91 5 5.5% −52.50
Down Royal 82 7 8.5% −18.40
Fairyhouse 79 3 3.8% −58.00
Killarney 69 2 2.9% −45.50
Roscommon 69 1 1.4% −63.00
Tipperary 53 3 5.7% −23.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 103 3 2.9% −9.25
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 113 25 22.1% 0.99 −22.31
2nd–3rd fav 283 42 14.8% 1.08 −38.07
4th–6th fav 634 47 7.4% 1.04 −108.00
7th+ in betting 1,805 40 2.2% 0.84 −777.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Morning Approach (IRE) 28 1 5 9 Jan 26
Mogwli (IRE) 28 2 4 2 Nov 25
Purring Along (IRE) 19 2 2 3 Nov 24
Downforce (IRE) 16 2 3 18 Mar 24
Cnodian (IRE) 16 3 8 7 Oct 23
Dark Street (IRE) 15 2 5 16 Feb 24
Raffaello (IRE) 14 2 2 15 Aug 21
Iseebreeze (IRE) 13 1 4 31 Mar 21
Coill Na Sionainne (IRE) 12 1 5 9 Aug 23
Thiswaycadeaux (IRE) 11 1 6 12 Oct 19
Bella Colombia (IRE) 10 1 1 10 Dec 25
Castletownshend (IRE) 10 1 4 6 Jul 22
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,494 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form
2 from 15 13.3% · +7.9pts vs baseline
Last 14 days13.3%
Lifetime base5.4%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1025857655545
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardW McCreery
23% of all rides
7.4% SR · A/E 1.11
TrainerRWSR£1
W McCreery 658 49 7.4% −229.27
Mrs J. Harrington 270 21 7.8% +53.70
Luke Comer 263 7 2.7% −95.50
David Marnane 87 6 6.9% +86.50
Daniel McLoughlin 57 3 5.3% −0.90
P F McEnery 54 4 7.4% −0.62
John S O'Donoghue 43 1 2.3% −34.50
John C McConnell 42 1 2.4% −13.00
Richard John O'Brien 41 1 2.4% −37.50
John James Feane 38 4 10.5% +10.00
Kevin Thomas Coleman 37 4 10.8% −10.00
Kieran P Cotter 36 3 8.3% −3.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→
154
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£2.79m
Prize money
2021
Best season · 26 wins
Fiona Maccoul (IRE) — Irish EBF Auction Series Race Final Naas · Oct 2024
£70,800
Going Remote (IRE) — BoyleSports Ulster Derby (Premier Handicap) Down Royal · Jun 2024
£59,000
Vera's Secret (IRE) — HKJC World Pool Autumn Fillies Handicap Leopardstown · Sep 2024
£59,000
Notable horses
Cnodian (IRE) Ideal Pal (IRE) Mogwli (IRE) Purring Along (IRE) Downforce (IRE) Dark Street (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Bungle Inthejungle (GB) 6.4% · 6–94
Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,251 runs since 2018 (353 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.4% from 123. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 2.4% from 125.
Fast Company (IRE) 6.1% · 4–66
Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,603 runs since 2014 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.
Dandy Man (IRE) 5.5% · 3–55
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,990 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.
Camacho (GB) 4.8% · 2–42
Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,327 runs since 2009 (596 horses).
Cotai Glory (GB) 10% · 4–40
Progeny have won 11.5% of 3,971 runs since 2021 (391 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.7% from 1,433. Weakest on Soft going: 7% from 429.
Dawn Approach (IRE) 5.3% · 2–38
Progeny have won 8% of 3,581 runs since 2017 (359 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.6% from 333. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 125. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 181.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,835 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,835 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 February 2017 to 13 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Quinchy Lady (IRE)T: John McConnell Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 50/1
13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Closefield Beau (IRE)T: Daniel McLoughlin View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap8f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 9/4
11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Movin And Groovin (IRE)T: David Marnane Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 11/2
11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Teffian Warrior (IRE)T: Ciaran Murphy Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 33/1
11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Bajan Bambi (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 200/1
04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) El Fontenaro (IRE)T: Jarlath P Fahey Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 22/1
04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Closefield Beau (IRE)T: Daniel McLoughlin Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 11/10F
04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Allez Magh Glas (IRE)T: M J Tynan Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden7f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 15/2
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Mawhibah (QA)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 3rd 100/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Purple Bandit (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington Velo Coffee At The Curragh Maiden12f · Yielding · 19 ran 9th 11/2
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Amplitude (IRE)T: Joseph G Murphy Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 11th 40/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Marazion (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 9th 28/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Motta Alta (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 8th 20/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Harry's Hill (GB)T: Martin Hassett Mongey Communications Sprint Handicap5f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 13th 28/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) The Pintline (IRE)T: Martin Hassett Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 17th 300/1
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Smart Aleck (IRE)T: David Marnane Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 80/1
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Movin And Groovin (IRE)T: David Marnane See You At The GR1 Double Header 21 & 22 November Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7f · Yielding · 12 ran 8th 11/2
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Saliba (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington Premiere Weekend Two-Day Ticket Just €35 Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 4th 4/1
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Margot Mae (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington Premiere Weekend Race & Dine Packages From €75pp Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 6 ran 1st 11/4
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Nonsense (GB)T: John S O'Donoghue Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 2nd 15/8F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 4 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Nathan Crosse's strike rate?
Nathan Crosse has won 154 of 2,835 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nathan Crosse do best at?
Down Royal by strike rate: 7 wins from 82 rides (8.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Nathan Crosse ride most for?
W McCreery, with 658 rides since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 49 (7.4%).
Is Nathan Crosse in form?
In the last 14 days: 15 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 13.3%. That is above the baseline of 5.4% since 2008.
What is Nathan Crosse's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 2,830 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 14 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).