1:20 Naas
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden at Naas over 5f 205yds on soft ground features a field of 13 two-year-olds, most of whom arrive with limited experience and several unproven on the surface. The KTB Fit scores are headed by Film Set on 60, with a cluster around the high-40s suggesting a race where proven form and yard strength will count for plenty. With the majority of runners either held up or racing in mid-division, the lone-leader pace shape stands out as a significant factor.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to one clear front-runner enjoying an uncontested lead, which could prove difficult for closers to bridge on this soft surface. Fly Smartly is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and looks set to take that role from a wide draw, while most principals prefer to be held up or settle in midfield. The key question is whether anything can muster the necessary finishing speed to reel in the leader on ground that may favour those with experience of the conditions.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Film Set KTB Selection60/100
Film Set has shown fair form across three starts, finishing placed over this trip on debut before two runs over longer distances. Dropping back to 5f looks a sensible move and the filly has already placed over the course. Aidan O'Brien's 22% strike rate at Naas from a huge sample is complemented by Ryan Moore's exceptional 37% strike rate at the track. The combination of yard and jockey both operating at a high level here adds considerable appeal, even though the filly remains unproven on soft ground. Usually held up, Film Set will need to produce her effort late if the leader gets an easy time out front.
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2Katty49/100
Katty has displayed consistent fair form in three starts and has been placed over today's trip on one occasion. With only three runs to her name she remains lightly raced and there could still be improvement to come. Adrian Sexton's modest 2% strike rate at Naas from 43 runs is a concern, though Shane Foley's 10% strike rate from a large sample offers some compensation. The partnership has shown a positive A/E at the track. Like several others, Katty is unproven on soft ground and will be held up in the race, meaning she must hope the leader does not get too far clear.
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3Be In Love49/100
Be In Love showed limited promise when fifth on debut over 7f here and was well held on her second start. She now drops back to 5f for the first time since her debut, which poses a fresh question at this trip. Aidan O'Brien's 22% strike rate at Naas from 1439 runs provides a solid foundation, while Wayne Lordan operates at a 9% strike rate here. The filly settled in midfield on her previous outings and is expected to adopt similar tactics. She remains unproven on soft ground, adding another layer of uncertainty in a race where experience could be valuable.
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4Senuna49/100
Senuna makes her debut with no racecourse form to assess. The Joseph G Murphy yard posts an 8% strike rate at Naas from 198 runs, while W J Lee records a 7% strike rate from 721 rides at the track. With low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. By Minzaal, who has a 12% overall win rate, Senuna is another whose ability on soft ground is completely unknown. She will need to overcome that lack of experience in a race where the leader may be allowed an easy time.
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5Ita Florence48/100
Ita Florence showed only modest promise when sixth on debut over 7f. She now drops back to an untried 6f on soft ground, leaving very little known about her preferences. J S Bolger has a 13% strike rate at Naas from 1282 runs and Seamie Heffernan records a 10% strike rate from 857 rides here, both solid if unspectacular. Usually held up, though with limited evidence, Ita Florence will be producing her effort late. The drop in trip on testing ground adds considerable guesswork to her profile.
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6Formous45/100
Formous showed only modest pace when fifth over this trip at Naas on soft ground on debut. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 12% strike rate at the track from a big sample but jockey J M Sheridan operates at 7%. With just one run on the board any further progress remains guesswork and the filly settled in midfield.
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7Chicago Blues45/100
Chicago Blues is a newcomer from the J P Murtagh yard which has a modest 9% strike rate at Naas from a large sample. The Ben Coen partnership shows a similar modest record here. With low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background that has not been supplied.
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8Imagine Glory45/100
Imagine Glory is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here and the low data confidence means any conclusions remain tentative. Kieran P Cotter has a modest 6% strike-rate at Naas from 102 runs while Gavin Ryan records a solid 11% from 216 rides at the track.
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9Fly Smartly45/100
Fly Smartly is a modest performer who has shown steady form in three starts, finishing third on his most recent outing. He has already run once at this track and trip without success and faces a wide draw. The trainer and jockey both have established but unspectacular records at Naas. As the only confirmed front-runner, Fly Smartly is set to take the uncontested lead according to the pace shape.
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10Camhaoir43/100
Camhaoir is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here and the low data confidence means any read is tentative. Trainer Mark Michael McNiff is 0-32 at Naas while jockey Luke McAteer has a solid 11% strike rate from 133 rides at the track.
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11Outside Sun42/100
Outside Sun has been beaten a long way in both starts over this trip and looks limited on what little he has shown. The yard has sent just one runner to Naas so far, while Wesley Joyce has a modest 4% strike rate from 96 rides at the track. With only two runs on his record the form is too thin to be confident about and the filly is likely to be held up.
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12Zelente40/100
Zelente has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions including when 13th on this track. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Naas from a big sample offers little encouragement, while the jockey is also operating at a low 3% here. With only two runs on the board and a small sample at today's trip, this remains very much an unknown quantity and she is likely to be held up.
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13Celine Dee39/100
Celine Dee is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 3% strike rate at Naas from 98 runs and the jockey is similarly quiet at 4% from 114 rides here. With low data confidence the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background which offer little encouragement for a debut on soft ground from stall 12.
KTB verdict
Film Set stands out as the KTB Selection. She has already shown fair form, placed over the trip on debut and over the course, while the combination of Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore at Naas carries significant weight. Dropping back to 5f looks the right move and her held-up style should see her delivered at the right time if the leader is caught late. The main dangers are Katty, who brings consistent placed form over the trip and remains lightly raced, and Be In Love, who represents the same powerful yard and drops to the trip that may suit. Several debutants add uncertainty, but those with previous runs hold the aces in a race where the uncontested lead could be hard to overcome.
KTB Selection Film Set
This is the narrative read of the 1:20 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Naas results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Naas racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Fly Smartly is the only confirmed front-runner and is set to take the lone leader role according to the pace shape.
Why is Film Set the KTB Selection?
Film Set has shown fair form, was placed over this trip on debut and over the course, drops back to 5f which looks sensible, and is backed by Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore who both operate at a high level at Naas.
How many principals are unproven on soft ground?
All five principals — Film Set, Katty, Be In Love, Senuna and Ita Florence — have no runs on soft ground and are therefore unproven on the going.
Which runner has the highest strike rate at Naas among the jockeys in the race?
Ryan Moore has a 37% strike rate at Naas from 133 rides, the highest of any jockey mentioned.
What run-style do the majority of the top five principals share?
Three of the top five principals — Film Set, Katty and Ita Florence — are usually held up and produce their effort late.
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