2:12 Curragh
This 2:12 Curragh maiden for two-year-olds forms part of the Irish EBF Median Sires Series and the Smullen Series, run over a mile on yielding ground with a field of 17. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Lunar Empress on 52, with the next four principals all clustered on 48-49, underlining a race where experience and course knowledge could prove decisive. Overall the numbers point to a competitive heat in which proven ability carries extra weight given the steadily-run conditions likely to unfold.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape suggests a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy will pay dividends. Several runners prefer to settle in mid-division or are held up, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of positioning and timing rather than outright speed from the front. The key question is which horse can produce its effort at the right moment in a race where the lack of an obvious pace-setter may compress the field and reward those with a turn of foot off a steady gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Lunar Empress KTB Selection52/100
Lunar Empress comes into this race with the strongest KTB Fit rating of 52 and is the clear selection. She has shown consistent form in four runs this year, finishing no worse than fourth and landing a second at this track last time out. Rated a fair performer on an official figure of 86, she now steps up to a mile for the first time, which asks a fresh question of her stamina. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need the race to unfold favourably in what is expected to be a tactical affair. Mrs J. Harrington has a 9% strike rate at the Curragh from 1453 runs with an A/E of 0.78, while Shane Foley has a 9% strike rate at the track from 1503 rides with an A/E of 0.84. She has had one run on yielding ground without winning or placing and has no previous course form beyond that recent second.
-
2Maximilien Luce49/100
Maximilien Luce is rated just behind on a KTB Fit of 49. Lightly raced, he finished 11th on debut at this track over 7f, leaving confidence low at this venue. He now steps up to a mile, which asks a fresh question. Aidan O'Brien has a strong 19% strike rate at the Curragh from 4495 runs with an A/E of 0.91, while W. M. Lordan has a 9% strike rate at the track from 2034 rides with an A/E of 0.87. Typically settling in midfield, he remains unproven on yielding ground and has that sole run at the course to his name. The overall profile suggests he needs to improve markedly on what he showed first time.
-
3Blue Glory48/100
Blue Glory is next in on a KTB Fit of 48. He showed very little on debut when finishing ninth of 12 over this trip. The yard has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at the Curragh, while the 7lb claimer Jessica O'Gorman is operating with limited track experience. Everything else about the colt remains unknown on such a small sample. He has had one run on yielding ground without winning or placing and has no course form on record. The combination of a modest debut and the trainer's poor record at the venue makes it difficult to see him figuring prominently.
-
4Viola Young48/100
Viola Young also sits on a KTB Fit of 48. As a debutant she brings a pedigree and sales background that offers some encouragement, but the overall data confidence remains low. Gavin Cromwell is operating at a 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 268 runs with an A/E of 0.93. Robert Whearty takes the ride from stall 17, and with no going data available her preferences on yielding ground are unknown. She has no course win on record. The wide draw and lack of raced experience add to the unknowns in what looks a stiff introduction.
-
5Anthony Of Lisbon48/100
Anthony Of Lisbon completes the principals on a KTB Fit of 48. Aidan O'Brien's colt showed some promise when fifth on debut over 5f but was well held in a stronger race last time, resulting in recent form figures of 50. He now steps up to a mile for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a solid 19% strike rate at the Curragh from 4495 runs with an A/E of 0.91, though the 5lb claimer Jack Cleary has a 5% strike rate at the track from 107 rides with an A/E of 0.71. Typically settling in midfield, he remains unproven on yielding ground and has no course form on record. The step up in trip may suit but he will need to find improvement.
-
6Even Par47/100
Even Par is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on and a KTB Fit of 47. Gavin Cromwell's yard has a 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 268 runs, offering modest encouragement, while pedigree and sales background will decide its chance on debut.
-
7The Captains Day45/100
The Captains Day is a fair performer with ordinary form in three starts and an official rating of 82, finishing fourth over this trip and track latest for recent form figures of 476. M D O'Callaghan has a modest 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 375 runs, though Colin Keane has a 13% strike rate at the track from 1257 rides. Usually held up, he has had one run on yielding ground without winning or placing.
-
8Clash45/100
Clash has been beaten a long way in both starts for recent form figures of 00 and arrives with a modest profile on a KTB Fit of 45. The drop back to 1m looks a neutral move. Josh Halley has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at the Curragh, while Andrew Slattery has limited course experience. Usually held up, he remains unproven on yielding ground.
-
9Woodstream45/100
Woodstream is a newcomer from Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard that operates at a 12% strike rate from 1399 runs at the Curragh on a KTB Fit of 45. The stable is well capable of readying one for a debut but with low data confidence this is impossible to quantify. Pedigree and sales background will decide whether any market support is meaningful.
-
10Silent Promise44/100
Silent Promise is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and a KTB Fit of 44. Adrian McGuinness has a modest 5% strike rate from 665 runs at the Curragh. Data confidence remains low so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
-
11The Boogeyman44/100
The Boogeyman is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and a KTB Fit of 44. Daniel McLoughlin has a modest 7% strike rate from 60 runs at the Curragh. Ben Coen takes the ride.
-
12Savannah Sun43/100
Savannah Sun has been well beaten in three starts for recent form figures of 000 and showed little when last of 14 on her only run here on a KTB Fit of 43. The step up from 6f to a mile is an unknown. Martin Hassett has an 8% strike rate from 114 runs at the Curragh. Usually held up, she has had one run on yielding ground without winning or placing.
-
13Ocean Phoenix43/100
Ocean Phoenix showed only modest form when seventh on debut over this trip for recent form figures of 7 and a KTB Fit of 43. Kevin Thomas Coleman has a 3% strike rate from 105 runs at the Curragh. With just one run on the clock and a wide draw in stall 13, there is very little to go on. Usually held up, she has had one run on yielding ground without winning or placing.
-
14Lori Darlin43/100
Lori Darlin showed little on her sole start when finishing eighth for recent form figures of 8 and a KTB Fit of 43. She drops back slightly in trip today with the small sample making it hard to judge what she can do. Noel Meade has a modest 7% strike rate from 933 runs at the Curragh. Usually held up, she remains unproven on yielding ground.
-
15Rare Blend41/100
Rare Blend is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and a KTB Fit of 41. John Joseph Murphy has a modest 2% strike rate from 369 runs at the Curragh. W. J. Lee takes the ride on a horse whose ability remains completely untested.
-
16Celestial Order40/100
Celestial Order is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and a KTB Fit of 40. The pedigree and sales background are the only pointers available and the low data confidence means any conclusions are tentative. Miss Natalia Lupini has a modest 5% strike rate from 142 runs at the Curragh.
-
17Belicoso40/100
Belicoso is a fair maiden with ordinary form across four starts, finishing no better than seventh for recent form figures of 7635 and an official rating of 81 on a KTB Fit of 40. He ran once over this trip without success and was seventh on his only previous visit to the Curragh. The first-time headgear is an unknown. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at the track from 1399 runs. Usually held up, he remains unproven on yielding ground.
KTB verdict
Lunar Empress is the KTB Selection. She has shown consistent form in four runs this year, finishing no worse than fourth and landing a second at this track last time, and she is a fair performer on the ratings. The steadily-run, tactical nature of the race should suit her held-up run-style if she can be produced at the right time, and the trainer and jockey both have solid if not spectacular records at the Curragh. Her main dangers are likely to come from the Aidan O'Brien pair Maximilien Luce and Anthony Of Lisbon, both stepping up to a mile for the first time with question marks attached, while The Captains Day brings course-and-distance experience that cannot be ignored in a race where so many others are unproven or lightly raced.
KTB Selection Lunar Empress
This is the narrative read of the 2:12 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Curragh racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating and why does it stand out?
Lunar Empress on 52/100. She has shown consistent form in four runs this year, finishing no worse than fourth and landing a second at this track last time, and she is a fair performer on the ratings.
How is the race expected to be run given the pace shape?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, so likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays. Several runners are held up or settle in mid-division, making positioning and timing key.
What is the trainer and jockey combination strike rate for the selection Lunar Empress?
Mrs J. Harrington and Shane Foley have a record of 429/3460 (12%) with an A/E of 0.82 and LSP of -£863.05.
Which runners are stepping up to a mile for the first time?
Lunar Empress, Maximilien Luce and Anthony Of Lisbon are all stepping up to 1m today, which asks a fresh question of each of them.
What course experience does the field carry into this Curragh maiden?
Lunar Empress has a second at the track last time, Maximilien Luce finished 11th here on debut, The Captains Day was fourth here, Belicoso was seventh here, and Savannah Sun was 14th here; all others have no course form on record.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies