3:30 Ayr
This Class 5 handicap division at Ayr over a mile on good to soft ground features a field of 13 modest performers, several of whom are dropping in class or stepping up in trip or grade. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Havana Touch heading the list on 66, followed by Tarmonbarry Kid on 61 and Atmosphere on 59. Overall the numbers point to a competitive race where recent form, course experience and an ability to handle the likely strong pace will be key.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is likely to be strong, and the early fractions could prove testing. Runninsonofagun and Sanafi Zabeel are expected to take the field along from their prominent or front-running styles, while Perfidia should race handily just in behind. This setup poses the key question of whether the leaders will pay for their exertions late on, potentially playing into the hands of the many hold-up performers in the line-up.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Havana Touch KTB Selection66/100
Havana Touch is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 212612 that includes two wins at this trip from 15 attempts. First time at Ayr and unproven on good to soft ground both count as unknowns rather than weaknesses. The five-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, a style that could be well suited if the strong pace collapses. Trainer John Butler has a 17 percent strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.37 from 12 runs, while jockey M. P. Sheehy posts a 20 percent strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.35 from 10 rides. The selection has the best recent form in the race and looks to have the right profile for this pace setup.
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2Tarmonbarry Kid61/100
Tarmonbarry Kid is a modest performer who has won two of his last three starts and looks well treated on that form. The three-year-old drops back to 1m having won twice at the trip already, and the good-to-soft ground should suit having scored on it at the only attempt. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well placed if the leaders go hard early. Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey strikes at a solid 12 percent rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.39 from 17 runs, though jockey Oisin Orr is less effective with an 8 percent strike rate from 178 rides. Recent form of 5-6131 underlines his current upward trajectory.
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3Atmosphere59/100
Atmosphere is a modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning, placing in three of his last five starts. He has already won twice at this trip and acts on good to soft, though his sole visit to Ayr brought an eighth and he is only 1-9 on this ground overall. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the strong gallop could stretch the leaders. Trainer Richard Spencer has a solid 13 percent strike rate at Ayr from 38 runs with an A/E of 1.09, while Saffie Osborne has a 33 percent strike rate at the track from a small sample of three rides with an A/E of 1.37. Dropping in class is a positive.
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4Cisco Disco56/100
Cisco Disco is a modest performer who has won four times at Ayr from 23 runs here, including on this sort of ground. The eight-year-old drops back to his winning trip today after a recent 1m2f run, though his last six efforts have all been poor. Usually held up, he will be aiming to pick up the pieces if the strong pace takes its toll late. Trainer R. Mike Smith has a modest 8 percent strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.9 from 1033 runs, offset by jockey Clifford Lee's stronger 14 percent record from 225 rides with an A/E of 0.91. Course form gives him a clear edge over several rivals.
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5Orangesandlemons56/100
Orangesandlemons is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days but has been below form on his last three starts. The four-year-old drops back to a trip he has won at twice from seven attempts while handling good to soft ground well with one win and a place from just two runs. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he should be closing late if the pace is as strong as anticipated. Trainer Edward Bethell has a modest 8 percent strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.38 from 26 runs, while Daniel Tudhope is more established with a 15 percent record from 812 rides here with an A/E of 0.94. Recent form of 15-389 suggests he needs to bounce back.
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6Selection55/100
Selection is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning often, landing one victory at this trip from ten attempts. Placed once from two starts on good to soft ground and arrives in reasonable form after a string of placed efforts, though the yard has a modest 3 percent strike rate at Ayr from 36 runs.
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7Runninsonofagun55/100
Runninsonofagun is a modest performer who has won once in seven runs at Ayr and steps up to a trip he has handled before with two wins from 17 starts. Recent form of 322610 shows consistency mixed with the occasional poor run, and he is proven competitive on good to soft ground without winning on it, while tending to make the running or race prominently.
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8Second Fiddle52/100
Second Fiddle is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 323342 that shows consistent placed efforts without quite getting his head in front. He has won six times at this trip from 18 attempts so the 1m distance is no issue yet he is 0 from 1 on good to soft ground which leaves a slight question mark today, stepping up in class.
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9Sanafi Zabeel52/100
Sanafi Zabeel is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning often. Has shown some ability at Ayr though without placing in two runs here and drops back to a trip he has won at twice from six attempts, tending to make the running or race on the pace, though unproven on good to soft ground.
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10It'sneverjustone48/100
It'sneverjustone is a modest performer who has been below form in recent starts and now drops back to 1m having last run over 1m2f. He has won at today's trip but is only placed once from three runs on good to soft and makes his first appearance at Ayr, with the trainer operating at a 6 percent strike rate here from 35 runs.
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11Calyxoh46/100
Calyxoh is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his day but remains winless after 23 starts. Has placed three times at this trip without getting his head in front and has failed to place from three runs on good to soft ground, with the trainer still seeking a first Ayr winner from 23 attempts.
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12Keats House45/100
Keats House is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level for some time without winning. He has shown some course form here with a pair of respectable finishes and acts on good to soft ground, where he is 1 from 2, with first-time headgear now applied stepping up in class.
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13Perfidia40/100
Perfidia is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year with three seconds from his last dozen starts. He has won at this trip but is 0-7 on good to soft ground and was well held when he tried this track as a 3-year-old, usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
KTB verdict
Havana Touch is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins at this trip, he is held up and should be ideally placed if the strong pace collapses late as expected. Trainer and jockey both hold above-average strike rates at Ayr from modest samples, and while first time at the track and unproven on the ground are unknowns they are not seen as weaknesses. Main dangers are Tarmonbarry Kid, who is in excellent recent order and well suited by the ground, and Atmosphere, who is consistent and dropping in class.
KTB Selection Havana Touch
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Ayr?
Cisco Disco has won four times at Ayr from 23 runs here.
How many hold-up performers are among the principals?
All five principals are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which runners are proven winners on good to soft ground?
Tarmonbarry Kid has 1 win from 1 on good to soft, Orangesandlemons has 1 win from 2 on good to soft, and Keats House is 1 from 2 on good to soft.
Who are the two most likely front-runners?
Runninsonofagun tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Sanafi Zabeel also tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Ayr among those represented?
John Butler has a 17 percent strike rate at Ayr.
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