4:05 Listowel
The John McGuire Handicap at Listowel brings together a field of 17 for this 1m4f contest on good ground. It is a competitive handicap where several runners arrive in reasonable nick yet with questions to answer, particularly around trip, ground and track. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining a race that looks tactical rather than one dominated by any standout performer.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With so many runners preferring to be held up or settle in mid-division, the early fractions are likely to be modest and the race could develop into a sprint for the line from around two furlongs out. The key question will be whether those positioned prominently can maintain their rhythm or if the closers will find the gaps in a crowded straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Alphecca KTB Selection60/100
Alphecca is a fair performer who has won both starts on this track. His recent efforts have been ordinary, yet the first-time headgear is now reached for as he steps up in trip for the first time. The Joseph G Murphy yard posts a 14% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 1.2 from 128 runs, while G F Carroll has a 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.24 from 180 rides. He has no placed efforts from three starts on good ground and no course form beyond those two victories. Typically settling in midfield, he is drawn widest in stall 17 in a race where being handy is expected to count.
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2Rock Of Ireland55/100
Rock Of Ireland is a fair performer who has won once at this trip from ten attempts and now drops back from 2m. He has not shown much spark on his last two starts and is 0-5 on good ground. The trainer has no previous runners at Listowel, though jockey Luke McAteer brings a 19% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.71 from 31 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a steadily-run affair. His overall profile leaves him with something to prove in this company.
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3This Songisforyou53/100
This Songisforyou is a useful performer with solid placed form at this trip and a respectable record on good ground that reads two wins from nine starts with five places. He drops back from 1m5f having been placed twice in five starts at 1m4f without winning. The Emmet Mullins yard has a 9% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 0.68 from 34 runs, while Daniel King is on 5% from 61 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 6 and should get a suitable pace to run at if the race develops as expected.
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4Handani53/100
Handani is a fair performer who has shown steady improvement and finished placed on all three starts this year. He steps up in trip for the first time today, which asks a fresh question, though the D K Weld yard's strong 23% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 1.06 from 520 runs adds encouragement. Chris Hayes has a more modest 9% record at the track from 312 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 12 and will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a tactical contest.
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5Tribal Star52/100
Tribal Star is a fair sort who has dropped to a handy mark and arrives in reasonable form having been placed twice from three runs on good ground. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has won over from only four attempts, which looks a positive. Adrian McGuinness has a solid 12% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 1.04 from 130 runs, while the 7lb claimer makes his first ride at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence and drawn in stall 4, he is well placed to take advantage of any steady pace.
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6Star Harbour51/100
Star Harbour is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first three on three of his last six starts. He has a solid record on good ground with two wins from 16 starts and has won twice from 18 runs at this trip, though he drops back from 1m5f today. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate from 130 runs at Listowel while the jockey is still seeking a first success from 11 rides here.
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7Narlita51/100
Narlita is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this trip from 15 attempts and brings solid recent form including a placed effort on her latest start. She has no previous experience at Listowel and has failed to place in three runs on good ground. The trainer holds an 11 percent strike rate here from 111 runs while the jockey is on 8 percent from 24 rides.
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8Obscenity49/100
Obscenity is a fair performer with a solid recent record that includes a win and two places from his last six starts. He has already won over today's trip though he drops back from 1m4½f, while the yard's 17% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample is respectable. Course form is poor on his one run here and he is 0-2 on good ground.
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9Day Trader48/100
Day Trader is a fair performer who has won once and placed once from two runs at this track. Recent placed efforts over longer trips suggest he is in reasonable form, though he now drops back to 1m4f where he is 0-4 with two placed finishes. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at Listowel.
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10Sir Jeremy47/100
Sir Jeremy is a fair performer who has won three times from 21 starts and showed useful form when winning at this trip earlier in the season. He drops back from 1m6½f today having finished fifth last time, while his record on good ground reads just one win from nine runs with two placed efforts. The trainer has a 10% strike-rate from 324 runs at Listowel and the horse finished third when he ran here before.
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11War Rooms45/100
War Rooms is a fair performer who has been in and out this year with a recent win at Down Royal but has failed to build on it. He drops back from 1m5f to a trip where he is 0-5 and has never been placed, while his record on good ground is modest with one placing from seven starts. Trainer has a 4% strike rate from 49 runs at Listowel and the jockey is 6% from 333 rides here.
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12Sharkeyboy45/100
Sharkeyboy is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including a solid effort when dropped to this trip last time. He now steps back from 1m6f and that looks a sensible move given he has already placed once over today's distance. Mullins has a 19% strike rate from 752 runs at Listowel while Slattery's 5% from 84 rides is more modest.
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13Superficial43/100
Superficial is a fair performer who has shown consistency at this trip with a win and three placings from seven attempts. He has placed on his only visit to Listowel and the 5 lb claimer is in decent form at the track with a solid strike rate. Trainer record here is poor from a decent-sized sample though and this horse has looked limited on his one run on good ground.
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14Eben Zaabeel42/100
Eben Zaabeel is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has run just once at Listowel and finished well beaten, while the trainer's modest 11% strike rate here from a big sample suggests he rarely finds the answers at this track. He drops back from 2m2f to a trip where he has placed without winning.
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15Daboya41/100
Daboya is a fair performer who has won twice on good ground from eight starts and has two wins from twelve runs at this trip. He ran well enough when fourth here on his only previous visit to Listowel and drops back from 2m1f, which looks a sensible move. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track and the jockey's zero from ten rides add some negatives to the profile.
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16Ephesus40/100
Ephesus is a fair performer who has won twice on good ground from six starts and also has a win at this trip from nine attempts. He drops back in trip today after his last run over 1m4½f and is well drawn in stall 1, though his recent form of 00-986 is uninspiring. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate from 191 runs at Listowel and the horse himself was well beaten on his only previous visit here.
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17Royal Saxo39/100
Royal Saxo is a fair performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample while the jockey sits on a 6% record here. He remains unproven on good ground and is only 1-14 at the trip so this is another step into the unknown.
KTB verdict
Alphecca is the KTB Selection. He has already won both starts on this track, and while his recent form has been ordinary the first-time headgear and step up in trip come at a time when the yard and jockey both hold solid records at Listowel. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his mid-division run-style if he can overcome the wide draw. His main dangers are This Songisforyou, whose placed form at the trip and respectable good-ground record give him a solid chance from stall 6, and Handani, whose progressive placed form this year is backed by the powerful Weld record at the venue. Tribal Star and Rock Of Ireland also have each-way claims if the race shape plays to their strengths.
KTB Selection Alphecca
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:09 UTC, 21 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Alphecca | 20/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Rock Of Ireland | 14/1 | BetTom |
| This Songisforyou | 18/1 | BetTom |
| Handani | 11/4 | Dragon Bet |
| Tribal Star | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Star Harbour | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Narlita | 20/1 | BetTom |
| Obscenity | 17/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Day Trader | 8/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Sir Jeremy | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| War Rooms | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Sharkeyboy | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Superficial | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Eben Zaabeel | 8/1 | BoyleSports |
| Daboya | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Ephesus | 33/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Royal Saxo | 28/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear being fitted to Alphecca?
Recent efforts have been ordinary.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, so it is likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Listowel?
Handani, with the D K Weld yard posting a 23% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 1.06 from 520 runs.
Who is the only horse to have won at this track before?
Alphecca has won both starts on this track and Day Trader has won once from two runs at this track.
Which runners are stepping up or down in trip for the first time?
Alphecca and Handani step up in trip for the first time, while Rock Of Ireland drops back from 2m.
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