4:12 Redcar
A competitive Class 5 handicap over 5f 217y at Redcar on good ground brings together 13 modest performers, several with solid course records and recent wins to their name. The KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top pick in Sugar Baby on 66, with Mr Cool, King's Call, Mayo County and Hurstwood completing the principals, though the overall standard remains modest and several runners arrive with patchy recent form. Trainer and jockey combinations add further layers, with a number holding above-average records at the track that could prove influential.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and confidence in a solid gallop is high. Hurstwood and Ingleby Archie are likely to dispute the lead early, while several others race prominently, setting the race up for a potential late collapse. This strongly favours the cluster of hold-up performers among the principals, and the key question is which of the patient runners can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sugar Baby KTB Selection66/100
Sugar Baby is a modest performer who has won twice over today's trip, including once at Redcar from eight runs at the track. His recent form of 510750 is patchy with just one win from the last six starts, yet he has placed six times on good ground and drops in class here. The trainer posts a solid 12 percent strike rate at Redcar from 84 runs, while the jockey has a 20 percent strike rate at the track from 25 rides. He usually races held up and produces his effort late, which aligns perfectly with the expected strong pace that could collapse. With an official rating of 67 and two wins from 15 starts on good ground, conditions look suitable as he bids to capitalise from draw 4.
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2Mr Cool57/100
Mr Cool is a modest performer with a solid record at this trip and on good ground, recording three wins from 13 starts on the surface. He has already won here from his only previous run at Redcar and arrives in reasonable form having scored three times this year, as reflected in his recent figures of 131302. The trainer and jockey combination shows 22 wins from 173 rides with an A/E of 0.89, while the yard itself has a 14 percent strike rate at Redcar from 80 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the anticipated strong pace. The wide draw in stall 12 is a clear negative on a track where the far side can often be favoured, leaving him with work to do from an OR of 70.
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3King's Call56/100
King's Call is a modest performer on the balance of his 19 starts, with recent form figures of 0-0090 underlining his current struggles. He has won on good ground and at today's trip, recording one win from eight starts on the surface, yet the yard's modest 5 percent strike rate at Redcar from 112 runs tempers expectations. The 3lb claimer has a solid 15 percent record at the track from 40 rides, which offers some mitigation. First-time headgear is now tried on his first visit to Redcar, where he has no previous course form. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 3, he should appreciate the strong pace but needs to show significant improvement from an OR of 70.
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4Mayo County55/100
Mayo County is a modest performer who has won twice at Redcar from seven runs at the track and arrives in reasonable form with figures of 314033. He has won at today's trip and is two from four on good ground without scoring, making the conditions look suitable enough from an official rating of 60. Stepping up in class, the yard posts a modest 8 percent strike rate at Redcar from 322 runs, but this is offset by the jockey's strong 30 percent record from 20 rides at the track. He usually races held up, though with medium confidence, and should be suited by the race setup where the strong pace is expected to collapse late.
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5Hurstwood48/100
Hurstwood is a limited performer who has won three times at Redcar from seven starts and clearly knows his way around this track. Recent form of 047114 includes two wins in the last six runs, yet he remains modest at this level overall from an OR of 57. The trainer has a solid 12 percent strike rate here from 84 runs, though the jockey is less proven with a 4 percent strike rate from 26 rides at Redcar. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and is therefore likely to be in the vanguard early in what is predicted to be a strong gallop. Stepping up in class having won here twice more broadly, his course record of three from seven gives him a foothold in the race.
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6Ingleby Archie47/100
Ingleby Archie is a modest performer who has won once from four starts at this track and twice at today's trip, though recent form has been patchy. The yard's poor 4 percent strike rate at Redcar from 95 runs is a negative, despite going well enough on good ground with two wins from 13 starts.
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7Bravo Hotel46/100
Bravo Hotel is a modest performer who has shown only fair form at best on his five starts this year and was a respectable fourth over course and distance on his sole visit here. The yard's modest strike rate at Redcar suggests he will need to improve, though he steps up in trip for the first time while the jockey's solid 10 percent record at the track offers some encouragement.
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8You Will See46/100
You Will See is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across four starts, finishing second on debut before failing to build on that. He drops back to an untried 5f today which asks a fresh question, with the trainer recording a 9 percent strike rate at Redcar from 173 runs and the jockey operating at 10 percent from 637 rides here.
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9Showtime Mahomes44/100
Showtime Mahomes is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed nothing at this track on his last visit, with an ordinary record on good ground. He has won at today's trip but is drawn wide in stall 11, while the trainer has an 8 percent strike rate from 131 runs at Redcar.
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10Run This Way43/100
Run This Way is a limited performer who has won twice from four starts at Redcar and knows this trip well, with recent form of 143362 showing he can still be competitive at this level. The trainer records a modest 8 percent strike rate at the track from a large sample while the jockey also has a solid book of rides here.
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11Taygar43/100
Taygar is a modest performer with a solid course record, having won here from 11 runs, though recent form of 269920 shows inconsistency. He has won at today's trip but his record on good ground is modest with only one success from 19 starts, while the trainer and jockey both have modest records at Redcar.
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12Wodao41/100
Wodao is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts, though he has won on good ground and placed at today's trip. The yard's poor record at Redcar is a negative even though the jockey improves matters with a solid 20 percent strike rate here.
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13Hares Bredth39/100
Hares Bredth is a limited performer who has won once here and once at today's trip but is now 0-11 since his last success, with recent form that has been ordinary. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Redcar.
KTB verdict
Sugar Baby stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 66 that places him clear at the top of the numbers. His record of two wins over the trip, including once here, combined with six placings on good ground and a drop in class, gives him a strong profile for a race where his hold-up style should be ideally suited by the strong pace. The trainer's solid record at Redcar adds further confidence. Main dangers are Mr Cool, who has already won here and arrives in reasonable form despite the wide draw, and Mayo County, whose course wins and jockey's excellent strike rate at the track make him dangerous if he handles the step up in class. King's Call with first-time headgear and Hurstwood, who is likely to set the pace from his course record, are others who could feature if the race unfolds as expected.
KTB Selection Sugar Baby
This is the narrative read of the 4:12 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Sugar Baby, who is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style.
How many wins has Sugar Baby recorded at Redcar?
Two wins from eight runs at the track.
What is the course record for Hurstwood at Redcar?
Three wins from seven starts.
Why is the wide draw a concern for Mr Cool?
Drawn in stall 12 on a track where the far side can often be favoured.
What is the significance of first-time headgear for King's Call?
It is tried for the first time on his initial visit to Redcar where he has no previous course form.
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