What is Aidan O'Brien's strike rate?

Aidan O'Brien has won 2,570 of 12,945 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 19.9% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Aidan O'Brien do best at?

Tipperary by strike rate: 91 wins from 342 runners (26.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Aidan O'Brien?

Seamie Heffernan, with 2,562 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 454 (17.7%).

Is Aidan O'Brien in form?

In the last 14 days: 28 runners, 8 winners, a strike rate of 28.6%. That is above the baseline of 19.9% since 2008.

What is Aidan O'Brien's Fair A/E?

1.08, from 12,917 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Aidan O'Brien

12,945 runners in the lifetime window · 1,887 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 5.7% of 740 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 7 Nov 2026.

In form — 8 winners last 14 days Last runner yesterday 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

2,570–12,945

Wins / Runs

19.9%

Strike rate

n=12,945

5,462 (42%)

Placed

1.08

Fair A/E

n=12,917 · 0.90 incl. margin

−2,430.92

£1 level stake

n=12,944 at SP · −18.8%

£223.4m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

18.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 680 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 20% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08). New recruits from other yards win at 23% first time out (30 runs). The yard is in form now — 8 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 12,945 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 43.2% when favourite Seamie Heffernan: 17.7% from 2,562 New recruits: 23.3% Sends off the favourite in 26% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Chester (45%, n=109), clear of the yard's 19.9% baseline. It is weakest at Longchamp (FR) (8.4% over 323 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 23.3% (n=30, Fair A/E 1.16), but a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 14.9% (n=174, Fair A/E 1.08). Right now the yard is firing: 8 winners from 28 runners in the last 14 days (28.6%, 8.7pts above the 19.9% baseline). Seamie Heffernan rides 20% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (17.7% vs 19.9%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 1,121 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly (FR) (Oct 2016, £2,100,735). The stable star of the record: Kyprios (IRE) — 17 wins from 21 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 19.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

19.9%+0.0

n=2,075 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −397.93

New recruits · first run for the yard

23.3%+3.4

n=30 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −5.83

Debutants · first career start

15.6%−4.3

n=1,798 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −445.58

First-time headgear · true-first definition

17.4%−2.5

n=858 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −210.07

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

14.9%−5.0

n=174 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −7.38

When favourite

43.2%

n=3,319 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −267.04

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

17.7%−2.2

n=1,395 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −221.49

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

16.5%−3.4

n=6,097 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −1,533.24

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 19.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Chester 45% vs 19.9% · n=109

With David McCabe 1.4% vs 19.9% · n=74

With P B Beggy 4.8% vs 19.9% · n=168

At Longchamp (FR) 8.4% vs 19.9% · n=323

With Michael Hussey 8.3% vs 19.9% · n=217

With Colm O'Donoghue 10.2% vs 19.9% · n=566

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 12,666 2512 19.8% −2,388.89

Hurdle 167 34 20.4% −28.45

NH Flat 71 20 28.2% +1.17

Chase 41 4 9.8% −14.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 3,841 790 20.6% −486.24

Soft 3,115 588 18.9% −713.97

Good to Firm 2,373 513 21.6% −354.74

Good to Soft 1,380 223 16.2% −439.06

Heavy 1,240 230 18.5% −268.68

Standard (AW) 955 214 22.4% −193.64

Firm 41 12 29.3% +25.41

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Curragh 2,883 553 19.2% −588.96

Leopardstown 1,812 355 19.6% −369.23

Naas 937 208 22.2% −112.18

Dundalk (AW) 928 210 22.6% −178.13

Ascot 729 99 13.6% −189.02

Navan 593 147 24.8% +2.55

Gowran Park 521 109 20.9% −85.84

Cork 432 78 18.1% −77.26

Newmarket 427 67 15.7% +18.42

Galway 369 75 20.3% −113.66

Tipperary 342 91 26.6% −80.56

Longchamp (FR) 323 27 8.4% −198.60

Killarney 286 70 24.5% −15.53

York 239 26 10.9% −113.26

Fairyhouse 224 38 17% −78.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 6,098 1006 16.5% −1,534.24

Class 2 183 21 11.5% −54.07

Class 4 32 7 21.9% −16.86

Class 3 21 4 19% −6.62

Class 5 2 2 100% +6.38

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 3,601 1505 41.8% 1.11 −285.21

2nd–3rd fav 4,053 761 18.8% 1.10 −476.41

4th–6th fav 3,290 254 7.7% 0.98 −692.20

7th+ in betting 2,000 50 2.5% 0.74 −977.10

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 4,062 830 20.4% −862.38

1m2f – 1m4f 3,775 699 18.5% −685.10

1m – 1m1f 3,386 656 19.4% −668.92

1m5f – 2m 899 200 22.2% −97.72

Under 6f 633 141 22.3% −76.10

2m1f – 2m4f 153 36 23.5% −40.98

2m5f – 3m 35 8 22.9% +2.28

Over 3m 2 0 0% −2.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 552 105 19% −55.34

2009 536 102 19% −115.88

2010 650 119 18.3% −184.44

2011 580 109 18.8% −109.57

2012 594 110 18.5% −119.01

2013 649 158 24.3% −82.82

2014 715 139 19.4% −197.25

2015 721 152 21.1% −52.36

2016 825 158 19.2% −165.11

2017 750 158 21.1% −101.08

2018 926 179 19.3% −164.07

2019 900 146 16.2% −220.89

2020 668 119 17.8% −99.34

2021 625 105 16.8% −140.50

2022 604 128 21.2% −119.05

2023 603 132 21.9% −78.53

2024 689 171 24.8% −27.20

2025 663 150 22.6% −99.27

2026 695 130 18.7% −299.21

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,492 200 13.4% −371.53

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 3,813 749 19.6% −669.05

5-7 runners 2,813 758 26.9% −413.73

11-13 runners 2,765 467 16.9% −660.18

14-16 runners 2,062 312 15.1% −386.41

17+ runners 1,172 154 13.1% −259.27

2-4 runners 320 130 40.6% −42.28

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fairylike (IRE) 48 4 10 3 Jan 14

Plinth (IRE)then Joseph Patrick O'Brien 40 7 12 15 May 16

Beach Of Falesa (IRE) 39 5 10 28 Dec 14

Marchese Marconi (IRE)then Joseph Patrick O'Brien 35 6 20 14 May 16

Broome (IRE) 31 8 13 21 Oct 23

Shield (IRE) 31 5 15 14 Oct 15

Waver (IRE) 29 4 6 16 Oct 15

Washington Dc (IRE) 28 6 17 24 Aug 18

Cougar Mountain (IRE) 28 3 7 13 Oct 17

Flavia Tatiana (IRE) 27 2 8 14 Oct 12

Windsor Palace (IRE) 26 1 3 19 Jun 13

Magical (IRE) 25 12 18 17 Oct 20

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,887 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 17 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 59 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard, most often for Joseph Patrick O'Brien (7); 52 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

8 from 28 28.6% · +8.7pts vs baseline

Last 14 days28.6%

Lifetime base19.9%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131820202320212218181614

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSeamie Heffernan

20% of all rides
17.7% SR · A/E 1.11

RiderRWSR£1

Seamie Heffernan 2,562 454 17.7% −336.15

R L Moore 2,382 653 27.4% −284.19

Joseph O'Brien 1,537 411 26.7% −290.23

W. M. Lordan 1,529 242 15.8% −369.49

Donnacha O'Brien 994 245 24.6% −161.83

Johnny Murtagh 686 191 27.8% −88.73

Colm O'Donoghue 566 58 10.2% −29.77

Ana O'Brien 407 41 10.1% −174.02

Jack Cleary 228 31 13.6% −66.27

Michael Hussey 217 18 8.3% −69.25

Sean Levey 171 28 16.4% −2.70

P B Beggy 168 8 4.8% −63.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

2,823

Archived wins

1,121

Pattern / graded wins

£245.8m

Prize money

2018

Best season · 179 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Found (IRE) — Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3yo+ No Geldings) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Oct 2016 · Group 1

£2,100,735

Christmas Day (IRE) — Betfred Derby (Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2026 · Group 1

£1,000,000

Wings Of Eagles (FR) — Investec Derby (Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2017 · Group 1

£921,538

Notable horses

Kyprios (IRE) Fame And Glory (GB) Order Of St George (IRE) Magical (IRE) Yeats (IRE) Dylan Thomas (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Chanting (IRE) 21% · 897–4,277

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,201 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.

War Front (USA) 19% · 134–705

Progeny have won 15.7% of 2,499 runs since 2010 (297 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.8% from 925. Weakest on Good going: 10.9% from 533. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 19.3% from 1,010.

No Nay Never (USA) 21.9% · 136–620

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,374 runs since 2018 (710 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.1% from 618. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 186.

Montjeu (IRE) 24.4% · 135–553

Progeny have won 12.3% of 7,971 runs since 2008 (665 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.3% from 686.

Wootton Bassett (GB) 22.2% · 112–505

Progeny have won 13% of 5,698 runs since 2015 (792 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 162.

Danehill Dancer (IRE) 17% · 76–448

Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 14,224 · newest first

The latest 50 of 14,224 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 March 2005 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) White Sand Beach (USA)J: W. M. Lordan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cooley Fillies Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 50/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Together Now (USA)J: Gavin Ryan QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 9th 9/4

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Amelia Earhart (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 1st 2/1F

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Wassily Kandinsky (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 20th 16/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Book Of Kells (IRE)J: Jack Cleary Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 8th 15/2

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Piero Manzoni (IRE)J: Liam Keniry Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 6th 20/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Choctaw Nation (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 1st 4/9F

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Speckles (IRE)J: Hector Crouch British Stallion Studs Ebf Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 12/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Haven (IRE)J: Sean Levey British Stallion Studs Ebf Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 4/5F

31 Oct 26 Newmarket So Lovely (USA)J: Declan McDonogh British Stallion Studs Ebf Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 13/2

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Accumulation (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 10th 7/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket City Of Gold (GB)J: Gavin Ryan Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 4th 33/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Bengal Tiger (IRE)J: Sean Levey Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 1st 6/4F

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Pure Power (IRE)J: Jack Cleary Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 6/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Oklahoma (USA)J: Declan McDonogh Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 5th 9/4

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Princeton (IRE)J: Jack Cleary Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 4/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Imposing (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 1st 7/2

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Petticoat Bay (USA)J: Jack Cleary Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8f · Yielding · 8 ran 1st 100/30

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Tantardini (USA)J: Jack Cleary Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden7f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 5/2

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Slightly (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 9 runs (won 4) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 12 runs (won 6) · fastest on KTB Speed in 13 runs (won 4, 1 did not run) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Aidan O'Brien's strike rate?: Aidan O'Brien has won 2,570 of 12,945 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 19.9% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Aidan O'Brien do best at?: Tipperary by strike rate: 91 wins from 342 runners (26.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Aidan O'Brien?: Seamie Heffernan, with 2,562 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 454 (17.7%).
Is Aidan O'Brien in form?: In the last 14 days: 28 runners, 8 winners, a strike rate of 28.6%. That is above the baseline of 19.9% since 2008.
What is Aidan O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 1.08, from 12,917 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.