Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). New recruits from other yards win at 8% first time out (50 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 721 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires May–JunNew recruits: 8%
The read
The record is strongest at Bath (12.2%, n=41), clear of the yard's 6.1% baseline. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (12.6%, n=159) and over 1m – 1m1f (10.1%, n=159). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes at Curragh (IRE) (May 2005, £52,080). The stable star of the record: Kendergarten Kop (IRE) — 10 wins from 52 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.7%−2.4
n=81 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −34.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
8%+1.9
n=50 · A/E 1.36 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.1
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.1%+0.0
n=33 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −12.75
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.1%+0.0
n=66 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −27.50
When favourite
29.2%
n=24 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −2.07
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.8%−1.3
n=251 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −147.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.1
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 0-7-day break12.6% vs 6.1% · n=159
With Stephen Craine0% vs 6.1% · n=49
At Bath12.2% vs 6.1% · n=41
On last-time-out winners11.8% vs 6.1% · n=51
With horses switching code0% vs 6.1% · n=38
Over 1m – 1m1f10.1% vs 6.1% · n=159
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat676416.1%−301.82
Hurdle3313%−18.00
Chase11218.2%+34.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)451255.5%−201.90
Good7745.2%−41.00
Good to Firm66710.6%−13.55
Good to Soft4812.1%−39.00
Soft4536.7%−14.75
Firm19210.5%−8.62
Heavy15213.3%+32.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)13575.2%−83.15
Kempton (AW)125108%−17.00
Wolverhampton (AW)11754.3%−50.75
Southwell (AW)5024%−31.00
Bath41512.2%−6.62
Windsor2414.2%−7.00
Chelmsford (AW)2214.5%−18.00
Brighton21314.3%−5.75
Chepstow1915.3%−16.80
Ffos Las17423.5%+21.25
Lingfield1616.3%+1.00
Leicester11218.2%+7.00
Haydock900%−9.00
Chester900%−9.00
Sandown800%−8.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6413358.5%−92.32
Class 517774%−82.50
Class 47011.4%−55.00
Class 12000%−20.00
Class 31500%−15.00
Class 21300%−13.00
Class 71218.3%−8.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite301033.3%1.31+4.93
2nd–3rd fav821012.2%0.86−26.25
4th–6th fav205167.8%1.06−42.50
7th+ in betting40482%0.73−223.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f22893.9%−103.75
1m2f – 1m4f165127.3%−87.32
1m – 1m1f1591610.1%−16.00
Under 6f9144.4%−61.75
1m5f – 2m5711.8%−42.00
2m1f – 2m4f1317.7%+21.00
2m5f – 3m6116.7%+5.00
Over 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20087234.2%−51.50
20096734.5%−42.75
20101900%−19.00
20116269.7%+29.75
201230310%+9.00
20133825.3%−23.50
20143226.3%+13.00
20153912.6%−30.00
20162015%−3.00
20173412.9%−21.00
20183326.1%−1.00
20193625.6%−10.00
20206646.1%−40.90
20216934.3%−53.75
202213215.4%−1.00
20251417.1%−4.00
202677810.4%−37.17
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps502367.2%−187.32
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners28693.1%−166.40
8-10 runners256207.8%−102.25
5-7 runners1091211%−3.17
14-16 runners5935.1%−4.00
17+ runners700%−7.00
2-4 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 71 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 39 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Paul Midgley (3) and Thomas Dowling (3); 21 had their first archived run for this yard.
22 have since run for another yard, most often for Ian McInnes (3) and Jo Hughes (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6807149527557
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
56
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£365k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 12 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Im Spartacus (GB) — Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes Curragh (IRE) · May 2005 · Group 3
Progeny have won 11% of 3,324 runs since 2008 (251 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.8% from 269. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.4% from 147.
Piccolo (GB)0% · 0–53
Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.
Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,322 runs since 2008 (596 horses).
Trade Fair (GB)2.9% · 1–34
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,230 runs since 2008 (113 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 843 · newest first
The latest 50 of 843 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 26 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is David Flood's strike rate?
David Flood has won 44 of 721 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Flood do best at?
Bath by strike rate: 5 wins from 41 runners (12.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is David Flood in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David Flood's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 718 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
David Flood·SR 6.1%·A/E 0.97
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