What is Don Cantillon's strike rate?

Don Cantillon has won 114 of 569 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 20% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Don Cantillon do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 17 wins from 48 runners (35.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Don Cantillon?

Leighton Aspell, with 63 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (22.2%).

Is Don Cantillon in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Don Cantillon's Fair A/E?

1.24, from 568 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Don Cantillon

569 runners in the lifetime window · 86 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 6 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

114–569

Wins / Runs

20%

Strike rate

n=569

230 (40%)

Placed

1.24

Fair A/E

n=568 · 1.07 incl. margin

−8.59

£1 level stake

n=569 at SP · −1.5%

£488k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

20%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 20% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.24). With a claiming rider up the record reads 22% (119 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 569 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Feb 51.8% when favourite Leighton Aspell: 22.2% from 63 Claiming riders: 21.8% Sends off the favourite in 20% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Southwell (AW) (35.4%, n=48) and Wolverhampton (AW) (31.9%, n=47) — all clear of the yard's 20% baseline. Debutants struggle at 16.4% (n=55, Fair A/E 1.19). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 21.8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.37 and +74.92 to a £1 stake over 119 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Leighton Aspell rides 11% of the entries and edges the yard's average (22.2% vs 20%, A/E 1.33) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 2.4% over 41 runners, 17.6pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham (Apr 2014, £11,888). The stable star of the record: La Estrella (USA) — 26 wins from 52 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 20% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

18.5%−1.5

n=119 · A/E 1.34 · £1 −14.10

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.5%−10.5

n=21 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −13.50

Debutants · first career start

16.4%−3.6

n=55 · A/E 1.19 · £1 +34.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

23.5%+3.5

n=17 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +24.45

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

25.9%+5.9

n=27 · A/E 1.98 · £1 +25.40

When favourite

51.8%

n=112 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +21.96

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

21.8%+1.8

n=119 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +74.92

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

14.3%−5.7

n=14 · A/E 1.43 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 20% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 43.9% vs 20% · n=66

With Dane O'Neill 45.2% vs 20% · n=31

On last-time-out winners 38.1% vs 20% · n=105

Over 6f – 7f 2.4% vs 20% · n=41

At Southwell (AW) 35.4% vs 20% · n=48

At Wolverhampton (AW) 31.9% vs 20% · n=47

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 289 62 21.5% −61.16

Hurdle 136 30 22.1% +44.31

NH Flat 100 14 14% −7.18

Chase 44 8 18.2% +15.44

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 186 44 23.7% −58.07

Good 172 35 20.3% −0.49

Good to Firm 84 18 21.4% +58.85

Good to Soft 62 7 11.3% −12.75

Soft 50 6 12% −18.06

Heavy 11 3 27.3% +24.10

Firm 4 1 25% −2.17

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 48 17 35.4% −9.26

Wolverhampton (AW) 47 15 31.9% −0.71

Huntingdon 36 11 30.6% +37.84

Kempton (AW) 35 5 14.3% −13.17

Market Rasen 28 6 21.4% +2.75

Lingfield (AW) 26 5 19.2% −10.22

Yarmouth 22 2 9.1% +6.00

Chelmsford (AW) 22 2 9.1% −16.71

Worcester 18 5 27.8% −7.07

Stratford 17 3 17.6% +40.50

Ffos Las 14 2 14.3% −6.25

Southwell 14 4 28.6% −0.89

Newbury 13 2 15.4% +0.00

Uttoxeter 12 1 8.3% +3.00

Fakenham 11 2 18.2% +1.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 183 32 17.5% +0.98

Class 6 179 44 24.6% −22.92

Class 5 140 28 20% +5.65

Class 3 29 5 17.2% +1.12

Class 1 14 2 14.3% −3.00

Class 7 11 2 18.2% −3.42

Class 2 9 0 0% −9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 125 59 47.2% 1.30 +12.21

2nd–3rd fav 174 36 20.7% 1.20 +0.20

4th–6th fav 159 14 8.8% 1.09 −32.00

7th+ in betting 111 5 4.5% 1.34 +11.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 215 43 20% +2.37

1m2f – 1m4f 120 32 26.7% −17.13

2m1f – 2m4f 74 19 25.7% −3.96

1m – 1m1f 50 6 12% −12.42

2m5f – 3m 49 11 22.4% +63.55

6f – 7f 41 1 2.4% −33.50

Under 6f 12 1 8.3% −5.00

Over 3m 8 1 12.5% −2.50

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 101 19 18.8% +36.36

2009 48 10 20.8% +6.40

2010 35 5 14.3% −9.17

2011 32 9 28.1% −10.38

2012 38 13 34.2% +16.09

2013 70 18 25.7% −15.23

2014 45 11 24.4% +25.24

2015 42 5 11.9% −18.30

2016 37 7 18.9% +12.41

2017 51 9 17.6% −15.88

2018 29 4 13.8% −9.88

2019 18 0 0% −18.00

2020 6 0 0% −6.00

2021 2 0 0% −2.00

2022 4 1 25% +0.00

2024 3 0 0% −3.00

2025 3 2 66.7% +4.50

2026 5 1 20% −1.75

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 282 53 18.8% +12.28

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 174 33 19% +25.90

11-13 runners 168 21 12.5% −76.10

5-7 runners 123 36 29.3% −8.59

14-16 runners 71 12 16.9% +24.00

17+ runners 18 3 16.7% +25.50

2-4 runners 15 9 60% +0.70

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

La Estrella (USA)from James Given 49 26 30 15 Mar 17

Western Way (IRE) 32 7 14 28 May 18

Navarra Princess (IRE) 28 1 8 28 Jan 21

Hint Of Grey (IRE)then Gary Moore 28 5 11 21 Dec 17

As I Am (IRE) 21 8 14 22 Jun 14

Green To Gold (IRE)from C Roche 21 4 7 22 Sep 13

Hollywood Road (IRE)from Conor O'Dwyer · then Gary Moore 20 5 13 11 Oct 17

Odin (IRE)from David Elsworth · then James Joseph Mangan 20 3 9 27 Sep 14

My Mirasol (GB)from Kevin Ryan 19 2 7 5 Mar 10

Alpine Breeze (IRE) 18 7 12 26 Nov 12

Sir Boss (IRE)then Michael Mullineaux 18 3 7 9 Aug 10

Canberra Cliffs (IRE)from David Wachman · then Gary Moore 17 4 9 31 Dec 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 86 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Conor O'Dwyer (2) and James Joseph Mangan (2); 39 had their first archived run for this yard.

26 have since run for another yard, most often for Gary Moore (4) and Donald McCain (2); 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

222815251419232511162124

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderLeighton Aspell

11% of all rides
22.2% SR · A/E 1.33

RiderRWSR£1

Leighton Aspell 63 14 22.2% +0.49

Dane O'Neill 31 14 45.2% −2.66

Conor Shoemark 30 10 33.3% +36.45

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

152

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£651k

Prize money

2007

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

As I Am (IRE) — Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed) Cheltenham · Apr 2014 · Listed

£11,888

As I Am (IRE) — Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed) Newbury · Nov 2013 · Listed

£11,888

Alfie's Sun (GB) — Lime Tree Caravan Park Handicap Chase Stratford · Jul 2009 · Class 3

£9,393

Notable horses

La Estrella (USA) That Look (GB) As I Am (IRE) Western Way (IRE) Im Ova Ere Dad (IRE) Alpine Breeze (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Theatrical (IRE) 53.1% · 26–49

Progeny have won 13.7% of 636 runs since 2008 (47 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 25% from 164. Weakest on Good going: 10% from 160.

Westerner (GB) 21.2% · 7–33

Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,851 runs since 2009 (943 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Intense Focus (USA) 3.6% · 1–28

Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,630 runs since 2013 (218 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.5% from 349. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.5% from 384.

Mastercraftsman (IRE) 17.9% · 5–28

Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,636 runs since 2013 (842 horses).

Presenting (GB) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Tagula (IRE) 13% · 3–23

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,560 runs since 2008 (382 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 909.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 819 · newest first

The latest 50 of 819 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 27 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Always Proud (GB)J: Jack Quinlan Breeders' Cup On Sky Sports Racing Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 1st 9/4

25 Aug 26 Stratford Stand Proud (IRE)J: Benjamin Macey Hollow Bottom National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (Conditional & Amateur Jockeys) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 4/1

15 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Stand Proud (IRE)J: Harry Cobden QuinnBet Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 8th 3/1

14 Apr 26 Market Rasen Royal March (GB)J: Jack Quinlan CopyBet Daily Profit Boost Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 11/4

21 Mar 26 Newbury Always Proud (GB)J: Jack Quinlan Goffs Hundred Grand Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 7th 25/1

10 May 25 Haydock So Proud (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Pertemps Network 'Junior' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 15.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 5/2

20 Apr 25 Market Rasen American Empire (IRE)J: Ben Bromley Get Daily Tips At racingtv.com Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 3 ran 1st 3/1

10 Feb 25 Catterick American Empire (IRE)J: Ben Bromley RacingTV Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 3rd 17/2

20 Dec 24 Ascot Step Ahead (IRE)J: Nico de Boinville King Edward VII Ascot Membership Open NH Flat Race (Listed) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 3rd 10/1

09 Dec 24 Lingfield (AW) American Empire (IRE)J: Ben Bromley Check Our Prices At BetMGM Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (AWT)Class 5 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 3rd 15/2

11 May 24 Haydock Step Ahead (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Pertemps Network 'Junior' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 15.5f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 9/2

15 Oct 22 Market Rasen Fiercely Proud (IRE)J: Ben Bromley Aquadi By Symphony 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 13f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 3/1

09 May 22 Southwell Bold Vision (IRE)J: Jack Quinlan Cazoo Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 18/1

18 Apr 22 Fakenham Pure Theatre (IRE)J: Tom Scudamore Fakenham Mares' Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 3/1F

21 Mar 22 Southwell Pure Theatre (IRE)J: Jack Quinlan Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 4th 15/2

06 May 21 Huntingdon Bold Vision (IRE)J: Bryony Frost Racing TV Open Maiden NH Flat Race (Div 2)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 9th 28/1

28 Jan 21 Newcastle (AW) Navarra Princess (IRE)J: Benoit De La Sayette Heed Your Hunch At Betway Classified StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 4th 22/1

28 Feb 20 Newcastle (AW) Navarra Princess (IRE)J: P J McDonald Betway HandicapClass 7 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 10th 18/1

22 Feb 20 Kempton Bold Vision (IRE)J: A P Heskin Betway Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 8/1

17 Feb 20 Kempton (AW) Navarra Princess (IRE)J: Jane Elliott Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 9th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Don Cantillon's strike rate?: Don Cantillon has won 114 of 569 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 20% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Don Cantillon do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 17 wins from 48 runners (35.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Don Cantillon?: Leighton Aspell, with 63 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (22.2%).
Is Don Cantillon in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Don Cantillon's Fair A/E?: 1.24, from 568 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.