Skip to content
Trainer profile

J J O'Shea

116 runners in the lifetime window · 27 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 202 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
31–116
Wins / Runs
26.7%
Strike rate
n=116
51 (44%)
Placed
1.43
Fair A/E
n=116 · 1.23 incl. margin
+64.60
£1 level stake
n=116 at SP · +55.7%
£238k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
42.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 27% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.43).

Deterministic profile computed from 116 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 71.9% when favourite Claiming riders: 27.1% Sends off the favourite in 28% of races
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 22% (n=41, Fair A/E 1.28). The yard also reads well on Good going (38.7%, n=31). The market has also underrated the yard over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 1.49 across 82 runners (28% strike, +79.04 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 16.7% over 30 runners, 10pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Barton Snow (IRE) — 6 wins from 6 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 26.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
22%−4.7
n=41 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +2.39
New recruits · first run for the yard
27.3%+0.6
n=22 · A/E 1.61 · £1 +16.13
Debutants · first career start
16.7%−10.0
n=6 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −4.64
First-time headgear · true-first definition
50%+23.3
n=2 · A/E 1.93 · £1 −0.17
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−26.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
71.9%
n=32 · A/E 1.74 · £1 +16.60
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
27.1%+0.4
n=70 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −7.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 26.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good going 38.7% vs 26.7% · n=31
On Soft going 16.7% vs 26.7% · n=30
Off a break of 180+ days 20% vs 26.7% · n=35
On Good to Soft going 20.9% vs 26.7% · n=43
With a new jockey booking 21.7% vs 26.7% · n=69
Over 2m5f – 3m 28% vs 26.7% · n=82 · A/E 1.49
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 7.5% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft 43 9 20.9% +66.97
Good 31 12 38.7% −5.59
Soft 30 5 16.7% −19.86
Heavy 12 5 41.7% +23.08

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cheltenham 19 3 15.8% −9.02
Aintree 15 3 20% +77.75
Leicester 13 4 30.8% −4.71
Ludlow 9 3 33.3% −2.37
Haydock 9 4 44.4% +22.17
Stratford 7 4 57.1% +2.81
Cartmel 6 2 33.3% −1.89
Taunton 5 2 40% +0.00
Bangor-on-Dee 4 1 25% −1.00
Hexham 4 0 0% −4.00
Kelso 3 3 100% +3.40
Catterick 3 1 33.3% −0.62
Musselburgh 3 0 0% −3.00
Hereford 3 0 0% −3.00
Newbury 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 36 10 27.8% −13.94
Class 2 27 5 18.5% +74.13
Class 6 22 6 27.3% −6.92
Class 3 17 3 17.6% +10.92
Class 4 14 7 50% +0.41

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 34 23 67.6% 1.68 +14.60
2nd–3rd fav 25 5 20% 1.04 −6.00
4th–6th fav 32 0 0% 0.00 −32.00
7th+ in betting 25 3 12% 4.57 +88.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
70.7% completed · 116 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 116 70.7% 6 5 22 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Cottage Oak (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 12 2 5 17 Mar 17
Cousin Pascal (FR)from Daniel G Murphy 11 3 5 13 Apr 23
Gracchus De Balme (FR)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 8 2 4 9 Apr 26
King Fontaine (IRE)from Malcolm Jefferson · then Lawney Hill 8 1 1 15 Mar 15
Road To Rome (IRE)from Oliver Sherwood 7 4 4 23 Feb 21
Barton Snow (IRE)from William P Murphy 6 6 6 9 Apr 26
Time Leader (IRE)from Tom Lacey · then Miss Hannah Roach 6 4 4 31 May 23
Envious Editor (IRE)from Mrs Denise Foster · then Miss H Brookshaw 6 2 4 18 Feb 23
Willewonga (GB)from Miss Hannah Roach 5 0 2 9 Apr 26
Paul Marvel (FR)from W P Mullins 5 2 3 13 Mar 26
Lilbitluso (IRE)from Mrs Denise Foster 5 1 2 12 Apr 18
Best Served Cold (GB)from Gordon Elliott · then Lawney Hill 5 0 2 4 Mar 15
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gordon Elliott (3) and Mrs Denise Foster (2); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard, most often for Lawney Hill (2) and Miss Hannah Roach (2); 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
20322824290······
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Mr Gillon Crow 19 2 10.5% −14.92
Mr Henry Crow 16 9 56.3% +6.03
Mr Huw Edwards 15 7 46.7% +21.01
Mr James King 11 3 27.3% +61.35
Mr Sam Waley-Cohen 4 1 25% −2.33
Charlie Todd 4 1 25% −1.62
Miss A Dalton 4 0 0% −4.00
Mr Patrick Gerety 4 2 50% +3.00
Mr Tom David 3 1 33.3% −0.75
Samantha England 3 1 33.3% +20.00
Mr William Biddick 3 2 66.7% +1.83
Mr Tommie M O'Brien 2 1 50% +0.62
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→
31
Archived wins
£238k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 6 wins
Barton Snow (IRE) — Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · Mar 2026 · Class 2
£24,445
Gracchus De Balme (FR) — Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase Aintree · Apr 2025 · Class 2
£24,155
Barton Snow (IRE) — Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase Aintree · Apr 2026 · Class 2
£24,155
Notable horses
Barton Snow (IRE) Road To Rome (IRE) Time Leader (IRE) Cousin Pascal (FR) Cottage Oak (IRE) Gracchus De Balme (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
King's Theatre (IRE) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Flemensfirth (USA) 16.7% · 2–12
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,290 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Great Pretender (IRE) 27.3% · 3–11
Progeny have won 13.1% of 3,557 runs since 2010 (410 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 728. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 152.
Beneficial (GB) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Manbolix (FR) 25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 11.9% of 42 runs since 2016 (5 horses).
Choisir (AUS) 57.1% · 4–7
Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 116 · newest first

The latest 50 of 116 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 February 2012 to 20 April 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
20 Apr 26 Kelso Boley Bob (IRE)J: Mr Henry Crow Church House Investments Buccleuch Cup (Maiden Hunters' Chase)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good · 8 ran 1st 4/11F
09 Apr 26 Aintree Willewonga (GB)J: Mr Alan O'Sullivan Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 24 ran UR 25/1
09 Apr 26 Aintree Gracchus De Balme (FR)J: Mr P A King Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 24 ran 7th 18/1
09 Apr 26 Aintree Barton Snow (IRE)J: Mr Henry Crow Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 24 ran 1st 7/4F
13 Mar 26 Cheltenham Paul Marvel (FR)J: Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 23 ran PU 80/1
13 Mar 26 Cheltenham Willewonga (GB)J: Mr Thomas Easterby Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 23 ran PU 100/1
13 Mar 26 Cheltenham Gracchus De Balme (FR)J: Mr P A King Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 23 ran PU 50/1
13 Mar 26 Cheltenham Barton Snow (IRE)J: Mr Henry Crow Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 23 ran 1st 9/2
24 Feb 26 Leicester Paul Marvel (FR)J: Mr Henry Crow Quorn Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 5 ran 1st 1/3F
12 Feb 26 Leicester Paul Marvel (FR)J: Mr Henry Crow Pointing Pointers Dick And Pam Saunders Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 22.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 1st 5/6F
04 Feb 26 Ludlow Barton Snow (IRE)J: Mr Henry Crow Plyvine Catering Chase Meredith Memorial Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 6 ran 1st 4/5F
23 Jan 26 Warwick Paul Marvel (FR)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Willoughby De Broke Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 15/2
15 Jan 26 Ludlow St Cuthbert's Cave (IRE)J: Mr James King Pointing Pointers Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 6/4F
15 Jan 26 Ludlow Gracchus De Balme (FR)J: Mr Henry Crow Pointing Pointers Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 5/2
30 May 25 Stratford Gracchus De Balme (FR)J: Mr Huw Edwards Pertemps Network Stratford Foxhunters Champion Hunters' Chase (The 66th Running For the Horse and Hound Cup)Class 2 · 27.5f · Good · 8 ran 1st 15/8F
30 May 25 Stratford Barton Snow (IRE)J: Mr Huw Edwards Pointing Pointers 'Restricted Point-To-Point' Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 22.5f · Good · 6 ran 1st 1/3F
02 May 25 Cheltenham Gracchus De Balme (FR)J: Mr James King Jonathan Neesom Memorial Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 26.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 9/4
02 May 25 Cheltenham Barton Snow (IRE)J: Mr James King Bottlegreen Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 11/10F
03 Apr 25 Aintree Willewonga (GB)J: Mr William Easterby Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 29 ran PU 50/1
03 Apr 25 Aintree Gracchus De Balme (FR)J: Mr Huw Edwards Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 29 ran 1st 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is J J O'Shea's strike rate?
J J O'Shea has won 31 of 116 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 26.7% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is J J O'Shea's Fair A/E?
1.43, from 116 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).