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Trainer profile

J P Cahill

131 runners in the lifetime window · 24 individual horses
As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Apr 2022
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
11–131
Wins / Runs
8.4%
Strike rate
n=131
26 (20%)
Placed
1.50
Fair A/E
n=131 · 1.11 incl. margin
+14.83
£1 level stake
n=131 at SP · +11.3%
£80,507
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
33.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.50). With a claiming rider up the record reads 14% (80 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 131 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 13.8%
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 13.8% (n=80, Fair A/E 2.39), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.5% (n=44, Fair A/E 0.90). The market has also underrated the yard over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 1.42 across 52 runners (7.7% strike, +26.00 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 5% over 40 runners, 3.4pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.5%−3.9
n=44 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −21.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+4.1
n=8 · A/E 2.81 · £1 −2.50
Debutants · first career start
7.1%−1.3
n=14 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
14.3%+5.9
n=7 · A/E 2.12 · £1 +5.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
13.8%+5.4
n=80 · A/E 2.39 · £1 +65.83
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up 13.8% vs 8.4% · n=80
On Soft going 5% vs 8.4% · n=40
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 10.8% vs 8.4% · n=37
With a new jockey booking 6.6% vs 8.4% · n=76 · A/E 1.26
Over 1m5f – 2m 7.7% vs 8.4% · n=52 · A/E 1.42
In Hurdle races 8.9% vs 8.4% · n=56 · A/E 1.75
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 56 5 8.9% −7.00
Flat 28 4 14.3% +15.83
Chase 24 0 0% −24.00
NH Flat 23 2 8.7% +30.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 40 2 5% +11.00
Good 26 2 7.7% +2.00
Good to Firm 24 4 16.7% +16.00
Heavy 18 0 0% −18.00
Good to Soft 11 1 9.1% +6.00
Standard (AW) 10 2 20% −0.17
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wexford 16 1 6.3% −8.00
Thurles 13 1 7.7% +6.00
Tramore 11 1 9.1% +1.00
Dundalk (AW) 10 2 20% −0.17
Gowran Park 10 0 0% −10.00
Clonmel 10 1 10% +3.00
Downpatrick 7 0 0% −7.00
Punchestown 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Down Royal 5 0 0% −5.00
Listowel 5 1 20% +12.00
Roscommon 5 1 20% +29.00
Kilbeggan 5 0 0% −5.00
Curragh 4 1 25% +13.00
Fairyhouse 4 0 0% −4.00
Killarney 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 20 4 20% 1.74 +4.83
4th–6th fav 37 4 10.8% 1.66 +20.00
7th+ in betting 72 3 4.2% 1.32 −8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
82.5% completed · 80 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 24 75% 3 1 2 0 0
Hurdle 56 85.7% 2 1 4 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Opera Music (GB)from Sylvester Kirk 23 2 5 11 Oct 12
Jack The Pirate (IRE) 16 0 2 19 Jun 13
Allys Bubble (IRE) 15 0 4 12 Aug 11
Mr Bb (IRE) 13 0 3 6 Jan 14
Kayanna's Back (IRE) 9 2 3 14 Oct 10
King Rama (USA)from John E Kiely 8 0 1 27 Aug 10
Annas Back (IRE) 7 0 0 10 Jun 14
Japal (IRE) 6 1 1 7 Oct 09
Prince Of Peace (IRE)from J P Murtagh · then W J Lanigan 4 1 2 17 Dec 21
Jj Is Talkin (IRE) 4 0 0 21 Sep 14
Icy Reply (GB)from Sir Mark Prescott Bt · then D T Hughes 4 0 0 14 Dec 13
Sendy's Gold (IRE) 4 0 0 18 Oct 13
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 24 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 16 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1400906330191109
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Brian Hayes 18 0 0% −18.00
E J O'Connell 11 4 36.4% +30.00
Brian O'Connell 11 1 9.1% +23.00
Tom Doyle 8 0 0% −8.00
Robert Jones 7 1 14.3% +1.00
Conor O'Farrell 7 0 0% −7.00
Emmet McNamara 6 1 16.7% +11.00
Ken Whelan 5 0 0% −5.00
Mr M Fahey 4 0 0% −4.00
John Cullen 3 0 0% −3.00
Declan McDonogh 3 0 0% −3.00
Danny Sheehy 3 1 33.3% +1.33
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→
11
Archived wins
£80,507
Prize money
2021
Best season · 3 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Opera Music (GB) — Four Star Keadeen Hotel Handicap (55-80) Curragh · Apr 2009
£7,601
Promise Maker (USA) — Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-102) Bellewstown · Jul 2011
£7,590
Kayanna's Back (IRE) — www.punchestown.com Handicap Hurdle (81-116) Punchestown · Oct 2010
£7,245
Notable horses
Opera Music (GB) Kayanna's Back (IRE) Promise Maker (USA) Japal (IRE) Prince Of Peace (IRE) Bubbles In May (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kirkwall (GB) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 9.6% of 562 runs since 2008 (44 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.9% from 136.
Bob Back (USA) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Viking Ruler (AUS) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 8.6% of 606 runs since 2008 (45 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.7% from 109. Weakest on Soft going: 4.1% from 145. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 14.2% from 113.
Luso (GB) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 6.7% of 3,516 runs since 2008 (389 horses).
Brian Boru (GB) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 11% of 4,124 runs since 2009 (285 horses).
Kingmambo (USA) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 14.5% of 1,093 runs since 2008 (137 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 10.9% from 138. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 18.1% from 243.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 143 · newest first

The latest 50 of 143 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 March 2007 to 8 April 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Apr 22 Ballinrobe Bubbles In May (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Bowers Bar & Restaurant Mares Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran PU 11/1
17 Mar 22 Down Royal Glenanore (IRE)J: Mr M J O'Connor Bluegrass Horse Feeds Mares Flat Race17f · Soft · 12 ran 9th 8/1
21 Jan 22 Dundalk (AW) Run The Jewels (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Follow Us On Twitter At DundalkStadium Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 9/2
17 Dec 21 Dundalk (AW) Prince Of Peace (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy BetVictor Loyalty Club Maiden8f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 10/3
10 Dec 21 Dundalk (AW) Prince Of Peace (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Join Us On Instagram At dundalk_stadium Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 13/2
31 Oct 21 Naas Figaruso (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden8f · Heavy · 20 ran 13th 125/1
21 Oct 21 Thurles Bubbles In May (IRE)J: Michael O'Sullivan Munster Flat Race16f · Good · 14 ran 1st 18/1
30 Sep 21 Clonmel Bubbles In May (IRE)J: Mr Derek O'Connor Clonmel Flat Race16.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 7th 25/1
25 Sep 21 Curragh Prince Of Peace (IRE)J: Daniel King Bord Na Mona Recycling Apprentice Handicap (45-70)8f · Good · 18 ran 4th 6/1
25 Sep 21 Listowel Boreen Boy (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Brendan Daly Memorial Slan Abhaile (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 1st 16/1
18 Sep 21 Gowran Park Prince Of Peace (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Download The BoyleSports App Apprentice Handicap (50-75)9.5f · Yielding · 16 ran 6th 33/1
17 Mar 19 Wexford Stobak (IRE)J: Mr T Hamilton Tomcoole Farm Ltd (Pro/Am) Flat Race20f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 8th 33/1
23 Feb 19 Fairyhouse Stobak (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Ian Smith Memorial (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 4th 10/1
21 Sep 14 Gowran Park Jj Is Talkin (IRE)J: Emmet McNamara Powerstown Stud Maiden9.5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 9th 66/1
16 Aug 14 Tramore Jj Is Talkin (IRE)J: Emmet McNamara Style Evening At Tramore Races Maiden12f · Good · 7 ran 5th 66/1
14 Aug 14 Tramore Jj Is Talkin (IRE)J: Emmet McNamara Bet Online At Thetote.com Claiming Race12f · Yielding · 9 ran 7th 50/1
10 Jun 14 Roscommon Jj Is Talkin (IRE)J: David Mullins Ladies Day At Roscommon On July 7th Flat Race16f · Yielding · 17 ran 16th 50/1
10 Jun 14 Roscommon Annas Back (IRE)J: Mark Enright Ivan Connaughton Auctioneer Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Yielding · 18 ran 15th 25/1
06 Jan 14 Thurles Annas Back (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Horse & Jockey Handicap Hurdle (80-102)22f · Heavy · 16 ran 12th 20/1
06 Jan 14 Thurles Mr Bb (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Thurles Racecourse Handicap Chase (0-102)24f · Heavy · 18 ran PU 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is J P Cahill's strike rate?
J P Cahill has won 11 of 131 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is J P Cahill's Fair A/E?
1.50, from 131 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 10 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).