Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.23).
Deterministic profile computed from 116 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 1.1%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 0.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−0.9
n=41 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −41.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−0.9
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
5%+4.1
n=20 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +1.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−0.9
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−0.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.1%+0.2
n=87 · A/E 0.30 · £1 −66.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−0.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 0.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f3.3% vs 0.9% · n=30
On Soft going3.1% vs 0.9% · n=32
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 43.1% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle4900%−49.00
Flat4112.4%−20.00
NH Flat2200%−22.00
Chase400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Heavy3600%−36.00
Soft3213.1%−11.00
Good1800%−18.00
Good to Soft1600%−16.00
Good to Firm700%−7.00
Standard (AW)700%−7.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Clonmel2100%−21.00
Limerick1200%−12.00
Thurles1100%−11.00
Gowran Park1119.1%+10.00
Naas800%−8.00
Dundalk (AW)700%−7.00
Cork700%−7.00
Wexford600%−6.00
Punchestown500%−5.00
Leopardstown400%−4.00
Galway300%−3.00
Killarney300%−3.00
Curragh300%−3.00
Navan300%−3.00
Tramore300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav1200%0.00−12.00
4th–6th fav1500%0.00−15.00
7th+ in betting8911.1%0.60−68.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m3200%−32.00
2m1f – 2m4f3013.3%−9.00
2m5f – 3m1700%−17.00
1m – 1m1f1300%−13.00
1m2f – 1m4f1100%−11.00
6f – 7f1000%−10.00
Over 3m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008700%−7.00
2010500%−5.00
2011600%−6.00
2012300%−3.00
2015100%−1.00
2016500%−5.00
2017500%−5.00
20181700%−17.00
20191100%−11.00
2020600%−6.00
20211100%−11.00
2022800%−8.00
2023900%−9.00
20241000%−10.00
20259111.1%+12.00
2026300%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3600%−36.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4112.4%−20.00
17+ runners3000%−30.00
11-13 runners1900%−19.00
8-10 runners1900%−19.00
5-7 runners700%−7.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 30 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 21 had their first archived run for this yard.
10 have since run for another yard; 20 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
070000000000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Aqua Force (IRE) — Ronan Lawlor Memorial Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race Gowran Park · Feb 2025
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,018 runs since 2019 (308 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.8% from 196.
Invincible Spirit (IRE)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,871 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Rossini (USA)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8.2% of 999 runs since 2008 (74 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14.8% from 122. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4.5% from 179.
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,849 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.
Progeny have won 7.7% of 1,915 runs since 2014 (139 horses).
Beat Hollow (GB)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 11.3% of 6,034 runs since 2008 (412 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 148 · newest first
The latest 50 of 148 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 April 2005 to 7 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is M A Gunn's strike rate?
M A Gunn has won 1 of 116 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 0.9% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is M A Gunn's Fair A/E?
0.23, from 116 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
M A Gunn·SR 0.9%·A/E 0.23
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