Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 3%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 1.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−1.4
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.4
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.4
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3%+1.6
n=33 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −21.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat3512.9%−23.00
Hurdle1900%−19.00
Chase1000%−10.00
NH Flat600%−6.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good2500%−25.00
Soft2100%−21.00
Good to Firm10110%+2.00
Heavy700%−7.00
Good to Soft600%−6.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Limerick800%−8.00
Punchestown600%−6.00
Gowran Park600%−6.00
Roscommon5120%+7.00
Wexford500%−5.00
Tipperary500%−5.00
Curragh500%−5.00
Ballinrobe400%−4.00
Tramore400%−4.00
Fairyhouse300%−3.00
Thurles200%−2.00
Naas200%−2.00
Cork200%−2.00
Killarney200%−2.00
Galway200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav300%0.00−3.00
4th–6th fav1119.1%1.61+1.00
7th+ in betting5600%0.00−56.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m1600%−16.00
1m2f – 1m4f1516.7%−3.00
2m5f – 3m1400%−14.00
1m – 1m1f1300%−13.00
2m1f – 2m4f700%−7.00
6f – 7f500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081200%−12.00
20091616.3%−4.00
20101000%−10.00
20111300%−13.00
2012400%−4.00
2013100%−1.00
2014200%−2.00
2023100%−1.00
2024100%−1.00
2025800%−8.00
2026200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3000%−30.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners2900%−29.00
17+ runners1700%−17.00
11-13 runners1317.7%−1.00
8-10 runners800%−8.00
5-7 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 19 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
7 have since run for another yard; 12 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00·009000000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Red Square Lady (IRE) — Kevin Mcmanus Bookmaker Grimes Hurdle (Grade 3) Tipperary · Jul 2006 · Grade 3
£45,570
Red Square Lady (IRE) — Langtons House Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Gowran Park · Oct 2005 · Listed
£24,413
Red Square Lady (IRE) — Ladbrokes Country & Western BBQ Evening Hurdle Navan · Jun 2006
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,491 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Pistolet Bleu (IRE)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 11.2% of 1,371 runs since 2008 (131 horses).
Choisir (AUS)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 227 · newest first
The latest 50 of 227 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 February 2005 to 30 May 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is M J Phillips's strike rate?
M J Phillips has won 1 of 70 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 1.4% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is M J Phillips's Fair A/E?
0.41, from 70 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
M J Phillips·SR 1.4%·A/E 0.41
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