What is Maurizio Guarnieri's strike rate?

Maurizio Guarnieri has won 57 of 852 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Maurizio Guarnieri do best at?

Chantilly by strike rate: 31 wins from 374 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Maurizio Guarnieri?

Cristian Demuro, with 142 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (7.7%).

Is Maurizio Guarnieri in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 13 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Maurizio Guarnieri's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 847 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Maurizio Guarnieri

852 runners in the lifetime window · 171 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

57–852

Wins / Runs

6.7%

Strike rate

n=852

192 (23%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=847 · 0.85 incl. margin

−137.60

£1 level stake

n=850 at SP · −16.2%

£1.73m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00).

Deterministic profile computed from 852 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Jan 27.8% when favourite Cristian Demuro: 7.7% from 142 Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

A horse in first-time headgear are the standout value angle: 7.8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.42 and +26.90 to a £1 stake over 103 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −2.80 to a £1 stake over 165 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Cristian Demuro rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.7%, A/E 0.91). The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (11.5%, n=260) and on Heavy going (10.4%, n=48). The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 8-14-day break: Fair A/E 0.53 across 102 runners (3.9% strike, −63.20 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte at Chantilly (FR) (Oct 2020, £70,622). Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Jan.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.8%−1.9

n=165 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −2.80

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.5%−2.2

n=22 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −5.00

Debutants · first career start

4.7%−2.0

n=150 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −58.10

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.8%+1.1

n=103 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +26.90

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7.7%+1.0

n=26 · A/E 1.37 · £1 −15.90

When favourite

27.8%

n=36 · A/E 1.10 · £1 +1.50

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.9%−1.8

n=205 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −60.80

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.6%+0.9

n=66 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −18.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C. Soumillon 17.6% vs 6.7% · n=51

Off a 15-30-day break 11.5% vs 6.7% · n=260

With C&D winners 11.4% vs 6.7% · n=114

On Soft going 3.8% vs 6.7% · n=156

On Heavy going 10.4% vs 6.7% · n=48

Off a 8-14-day break 3.9% vs 6.7% · n=102

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 443 29 6.5% −63.00

Soft 156 6 3.8% −82.90

Good to Soft 133 12 9% +24.20

Good 69 5 7.2% −8.00

Heavy 48 5 10.4% −4.90

Good to Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chantilly 374 31 8.3% +50.70

Deauville (AW) 239 13 5.4% −100.90

Longchamp (FR) 74 4 5.4% −25.60

Saint-Cloud 70 3 4.3% −55.70

La Teste De Buch 15 2 13.3% +12.50

Toulouse (FR) 11 0 0% −11.00

Compiegne (FR) 10 2 20% +24.00

Fontainebleau (FR) 10 0 0% −10.00

Dieppe (FR) 8 0 0% −8.00

Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR) 6 0 0% −6.00

Tarbes 5 0 0% −5.00

Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 4 0 0% −4.00

Ascot 3 0 0% −3.00

Dax (FR) 3 0 0% −2.00

Vichy (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 68 5 7.4% −20.00

Class 3 13 0 0% −13.00

Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Class 4 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 38 10 26.3% 1.06 −0.50

2nd–3rd fav 99 15 15.2% 1.02 −20.60

4th–6th fav 228 12 5.3% 0.67 −106.90

7th+ in betting 485 20 4.1% 1.36 −9.60

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bacchilide (GB) 47 4 15 2 Nov 26

Aucoeurdelanuit (FR) 39 4 10 7 Oct 26

Inkiostro (FR)then Joeri Goossens 25 2 7 28 Apr 25

Sister Of Love (IRE) 25 2 5 15 Aug 24

Nick Boutique (FR) 23 2 6 6 Nov 26

Lou Balicot (FR)then Stijn Derycke 19 0 3 24 Feb 24

Karelia (FR) 18 0 2 23 Dec 24

Apogeo (FR) 16 1 6 26 Oct 26

Ambra Antica (FR)then Joeri Goossens 15 2 4 23 Apr 26

Cirano (ITY) 15 1 3 12 Oct 23

Gattopardo (FR) 14 2 9 1 Jun 25

Magic Perseverance (FR) 14 1 3 18 Dec 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 171 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 53 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Joeri Goossens (3) and Alberto Carrasco (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 13

Only 13 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

85134451073769

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCristian Demuro

17% of all rides
7.7% SR · A/E 0.91

RiderRWSR£1

Cristian Demuro 142 11 7.7% +12.40

Marie Velon 54 4 7.4% −19.90

C. Soumillon 51 9 17.6% +33.40

C Lecoeuvre 43 3 7% −2.60

Anthony Crastus 38 2 5.3% −5.40

Alexis Pouchin 33 3 9.1% −21.70

Antoine Hamelin 32 2 6.3% −7.70

Ioritz Mendizabal 31 1 3.2% −12.30

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.73m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 16 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Plainchant (FR) — Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (2yo) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Oct 2020 · Group 2

£70,622

Wed (FR) — Prix du Calvados (2yo Fillies) (Straight Course) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2022 · Group 2

£62,269

Plainchant (FR) — Prix Eclipse (2yo) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Sep 2020 · Group 3

£26,695

Notable horses

Bacchilide (GB) Aucoeurdelanuit (FR) Plainchant (FR) Sister Of Love (IRE) Inkiostro (FR) Nick Boutique (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dabirsim (FR) 7.9% · 6–76

Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,175 runs since 2017 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 258. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.7% from 146.

Seahenge (USA) 10.3% · 4–39

Progeny have won 7.5% of 572 runs since 2022 (95 horses).

Belardo (IRE) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,746 runs since 2020 (281 horses).

Toronado (IRE) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,925 runs since 2018 (417 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.5% from 200. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.3% from 144.

Yafta (GB) 4.2% · 1–24

Progeny have won 3.2% of 217 runs since 2024 (40 horses).

Zelzal (FR) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,749 runs since 2021 (242 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.7% from 109.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 853 · newest first

The latest 50 of 853 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 September 2005 to 10 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Nov 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Time Like A River (FR)J: Fabien Lefebvre Prix De Chateau-Landon6f · Very Soft · 15 ran 6th 40/1

09 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Selinunte (IRE)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De La Laie des Tetes Salmon9f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 13/2

06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Nick Boutique (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De Berd'huisClass 3 · 12.5f · Standard · 16 ran 6th 11/2

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Coded Elegance (USA)J: Xavier Bergeron Prix Du Poteau Des Brulis9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 9th 22/1

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Mackaya (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix Du Domaine De Valgenceuse8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 16/1

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Landed (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix De L'Abbaye De La Victoire8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 25/1

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Gariga (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De L'Abbaye De La Victoire8f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 18/1

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Assereje (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De La Croix Saint-rieuil8f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 22/1

02 Nov 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Bacchilide (GB)J: Marie Velon Prix Du Centre D'ecotourisme De FranchardClass 3 · 7f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 18/1

02 Nov 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Hombre Vertical (IRE)J: Xavier Bergeron Prix Des Alisiers6f · Soft · 11 ran 5th 16/1

01 Nov 26 Nancy (FR) Zero Stress (IRE)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix Leonce De Scitivaux De Greische7f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 3rd 3/1F

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Pressure Test (IRE)J: Pierre-Charles Boudot Prix Du Bray Normand9.5f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 12/1

30 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Samarkhanda (IRE)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix De La Rocque9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 22/1

28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Ghirlanda (FR)J: Xavier Bergeron Prix Des Socioprofessionnels (Prix Du Macaron)8f · Heavy · 11 ran 6th 14/1

28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Sena Iulia (FR)J: Costantino Carboni Prix Du Zenith D'amiens8f · Heavy · 11 ran 6th 12/1

27 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Sighish (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix Gold Beach6.5f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 22/1

26 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Apogeo (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix De La Route Des PrincesClass 2 · 8f · Standard · 16 ran 13th 12/1

25 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Alpe Motta (IRE)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix des HarasClass 3 · 12.5f · Soft · 14 ran 14th 25/1

22 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Landed (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix De L'ecluse Francois I Er6.5f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Maurizio Guarnieri's strike rate?: Maurizio Guarnieri has won 57 of 852 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Maurizio Guarnieri do best at?: Chantilly by strike rate: 31 wins from 374 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Maurizio Guarnieri?: Cristian Demuro, with 142 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (7.7%).
Is Maurizio Guarnieri in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 13 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Maurizio Guarnieri's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 847 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.