What is Maurizio Guarnieri's strike rate?

Maurizio Guarnieri has won 49 of 730 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Maurizio Guarnieri do best at?

Chantilly by strike rate: 27 wins from 339 runners (8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Maurizio Guarnieri?

Cristian Demuro, with 127 runners since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (7.9%).

Is Maurizio Guarnieri in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Maurizio Guarnieri's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 730 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Maurizio Guarnieri

730 runners in the last 5 seasons · 128 individual horses

As at 26 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

49–730

Wins / Runs

6.7%

Strike rate

n=730

160 (22%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=730 · 0.86 incl. margin

−116.90

£1 level stake

n=730 at SP · −16.0%

£1.40m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 150 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 730 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 26 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Jan 24.2% when favourite Cristian Demuro: 7.9% from 127 Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

Cristian Demuro rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.9%, A/E 0.91). The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (11.3%, n=238) and on Heavy going (10.5%, n=38). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 1: Fair A/E 0.53 across 52 runners (3.8% strike, −27.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte at Chantilly (FR) (Oct 2020, £70,622). Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Jan.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.5%−1.2

n=128 · A/E 0.94 · £1 +15.30

New recruits · first run for the yard

7.1%+0.4

n=14 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +3.00

Debutants · first career start

4.5%−2.2

n=111 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −62.70

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.9%+0.2

n=87 · A/E 1.44 · £1 +0.30

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8%+1.3

n=25 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −14.90

When favourite

24.2%

n=33 · A/E 1.06 · £1 +0.10

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5%−1.7

n=181 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −50.60

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4%−2.7

n=50 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −25.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C. Soumillon 18% vs 6.7% · n=50

Off a 15-30-day break 11.3% vs 6.7% · n=238

With C&D winners 10.9% vs 6.7% · n=110

Off a 31-60-day break 3.9% vs 6.7% · n=154

On Heavy going 10.5% vs 6.7% · n=38

In Class 1 3.8% vs 6.7% · n=52

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 404 27 6.7% −76.00

Soft 119 6 5% −46.90

Good to Soft 116 9 7.8% +23.40

Good 50 3 6% −17.50

Heavy 38 4 10.5% +3.10

Good to Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chantilly 339 27 8% +28.10

Deauville (AW) 218 13 6% −79.90

Saint-Cloud 67 3 4.5% −52.70

Longchamp (FR) 63 3 4.8% −26.40

Compiegne (FR) 10 2 20% +24.00

Dieppe (FR) 8 0 0% −8.00

Fontainebleau (FR) 6 0 0% −6.00

Ascot 3 0 0% −3.00

Clairefontaine (FR) 3 1 33.3% +20.00

Le Touquet (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

La Teste De Buch (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Vichy (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Tarbes (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Angers (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Le Croise-Laroche (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 52 2 3.8% −27.50

Class 3 11 0 0% −11.00

Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 4 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 35 8 22.9% 1.02 −1.90

2nd–3rd fav 85 13 15.3% 1.07 −19.80

4th–6th fav 194 12 6.2% 0.80 −72.90

7th+ in betting 416 16 3.8% 1.30 −22.30

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bacchilide (GB) 46 4 15 16 Oct 26

Aucoeurdelanuit (FR) 39 4 10 7 Oct 26

Inkiostro (FR)then Joeri Goossens 25 2 7 28 Apr 25

Sister Of Love (IRE) 25 2 5 15 Aug 24

Nick Boutique (FR) 22 2 6 18 Sep 26

Karelia (FR) 18 0 2 23 Dec 24

Lou Balicot (FR)then Stijn Derycke 17 0 2 24 Feb 24

Apogeo (FR) 15 1 6 23 Sep 26

Ambra Antica (FR)then Joeri Goossens 15 2 4 23 Apr 26

Cirano (ITY) 15 1 3 12 Oct 23

Gattopardo (FR) 14 2 9 1 Jun 25

Magic Perseverance (FR) 14 1 3 18 Dec 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 128 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Christopher Head (2); 51 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Joeri Goossens (3) and Alberto Carrasco (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 6

Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

8612456870669

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCristian Demuro

17% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 0.91

RiderRWSR£1

Cristian Demuro 127 10 7.9% −5.60

Mlle Marie Velon 53 4 7.5% −18.90

C. Soumillon 50 9 18% +34.40

C Lecoeuvre 35 3 8.6% +5.40

Alexis Pouchin 33 3 9.1% −21.70

Antoine Hamelin 30 2 6.7% −5.70

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.71m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 16 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Plainchant (FR) — Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (2yo) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Oct 2020 · Group 2

£70,622

Wed (FR) — Prix du Calvados (2yo Fillies) (Straight Course) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2022 · Group 2

£62,269

Plainchant (FR) — Prix Eclipse (2yo) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Sep 2020 · Group 3

£26,695

Notable horses

Bacchilide (GB) Aucoeurdelanuit (FR) Plainchant (FR) Sister Of Love (IRE) Inkiostro (FR) Nick Boutique (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dabirsim (FR) 8.3% · 6–72

Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,141 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 254. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 144.

Seahenge (USA) 10.3% · 4–39

Progeny have won 7.5% of 548 runs since 2008 (91 horses).

Belardo (IRE) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,712 runs since 2008 (280 horses).

Zelzal (FR) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,685 runs since 2008 (240 horses).

Toronado (IRE) 8.7% · 2–23

Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,861 runs since 2008 (417 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 191. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.5% from 142.

Yafta (GB) 4.5% · 1–22

Progeny have won 3.6% of 197 runs since 2008 (38 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 832 · newest first

The latest 50 of 832 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 September 2005 to 25 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

25 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Alpe Motta (IRE)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix des HarasClass 3 · 12.5f · Soft · 14 ran 14th 25/1

22 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Landed (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix De L'ecluse Francois I Er6.5f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 9/1

22 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Mackaya (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix De VillepeleeClass 3 · 7.5f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 20/1

20 Oct 26 Clairefontaine (FR) Edonista (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Px Merci A La Boutique Gourmande Expl. Des Resto De Cf (Px Filiberto)9f · Heavy · 15 ran 1st 22/1

20 Oct 26 Clairefontaine (FR) Hombre Vertical (IRE)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix Merci Aux Partenaires & Exposants De Clairefontaine (Prix Madina)7f · Heavy · 11 ran 5th 20/1

16 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Bacchilide (GB)J: Marvin Grandin Prix De La MalmontagneClass 3 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 4th 12/1

07 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Sighish (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De Senlis6f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 10/1

07 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Aucoeurdelanuit (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix Du Bois Bourillon9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 11th 22/1

07 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Selinunte (IRE)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix Des Terroirs De France7f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 50/1

05 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Gariga (FR)J: Mme Sophie Tison Prix Du Plouich9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 18/1

05 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Bacchilide (GB)J: Mme Sophie Tison Prix Au-dela Des PistesClass 4 · 6.5f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 11/1

04 Oct 26 Longchamp (FR) Profumo Di Iena (FR)J: Marco Ghiani Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMCClass 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 2nd 40/1

24 Sep 26 Compiegne (FR) Sena Iulia (FR)J: Tony Piccone Prix Du Vermandois7f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 12th 80/1

24 Sep 26 Compiegne (FR) Mackaya (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix De La Basse Automne8f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 10th 50/1

23 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Hombre Vertical (IRE)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix Des Terriers Du Houx8f · Good · 7 ran 5th 33/1

23 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Apogeo (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De Bruyere-sur-oise8f · Good · 14 ran 4th 22/1

21 Sep 26 Angers (FR) Landed (FR)J: Mme Sophie Tison Prix Luna Wells6.5f · Good · 12 ran 4th 40/1

20 Sep 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Time Like A River (FR)J: Arthur Vilchien Prix Des Animations Pmu (Prix Label Equures)6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 33/1

20 Sep 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Sighish (FR)J: Adrian Le Lay Martin Prix Des Animations Pmu (Prix Label Equures)6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 6/1

19 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Bacchilide (GB)J: Mme Marie Velon Prix Du Roi Des ManuscritsClass 3 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 11th 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Maurizio Guarnieri's strike rate?: Maurizio Guarnieri has won 49 of 730 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Maurizio Guarnieri do best at?: Chantilly by strike rate: 27 wins from 339 runners (8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Maurizio Guarnieri?: Cristian Demuro, with 127 runners since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (7.9%).
Is Maurizio Guarnieri in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Maurizio Guarnieri's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 730 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.