What is Mel Rowley's strike rate?

Mel Rowley has won 81 of 739 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Mel Rowley do best at?

Aintree by strike rate: 10 wins from 31 runners (32.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Mel Rowley?

Alex Edwards, with 290 runners since 2008 — 39% of the total. That pairing has won 30 (10.3%).

Is Mel Rowley in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Mel Rowley's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 739 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Mel Rowley

739 runners in the lifetime window · 118 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday 100% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

81–739

Wins / Runs

11%

Strike rate

n=739

221 (30%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=739 · 0.86 incl. margin

−132.38

£1 level stake

n=739 at SP · −17.9%

£1.14m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00).

Deterministic profile computed from 739 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 28.8% when favourite Alex Edwards: 10.3% from 290 Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Aintree (32.3%, n=31), clear of the yard's 11% baseline. It is weakest at Warwick (2.4% over 42 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 2.2% (n=45, Fair A/E 0.34). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.65 and −125.39 to a £1 stake over 208 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Alex Edwards rides 39% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.3%, A/E 0.85). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 4.6% over 109 runners, 6.4pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase at Chepstow (Dec 2024, £85,425). The stable star of the record: Val Dancer (IRE) — 6 wins from 21 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.3%−4.7

n=208 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −125.39

New recruits · first run for the yard

10.3%−0.7

n=39 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −21.00

Debutants · first career start

5%−6.0

n=80 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −23.75

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.2%−8.8

n=45 · A/E 0.34 · £1 −42.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.9%−5.1

n=17 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −12.50

When favourite

28.8%

n=59 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −12.65

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.1%−0.9

n=297 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −80.20

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.7%−4.3

n=15 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −12.80

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Aintree 32.3% vs 11% · n=31

On last-time-out winners 21.3% vs 11% · n=75

With first-time headgear 2.2% vs 11% · n=45

At Warwick 2.4% vs 11% · n=42

Off a break of 180+ days 4.6% vs 11% · n=109

At Southwell 3.9% vs 11% · n=51

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 449 46 10.2% −100.17

Chase 181 28 15.5% +5.16

NH Flat 109 7 6.4% −37.37

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 325 35 10.8% −43.37

Good to Soft 209 22 10.5% −60.42

Soft 165 18 10.9% −11.77

Heavy 35 6 17.1% −11.82

Good to Firm 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ludlow 84 10 11.9% −23.52

Bangor-on-Dee 56 6 10.7% +2.00

Worcester 54 5 9.3% −1.12

Hereford 52 6 11.5% −16.00

Southwell 51 2 3.9% −30.50

Uttoxeter 49 7 14.3% +43.50

Warwick 42 1 2.4% −39.25

Huntingdon 38 3 7.9% −30.64

Cheltenham 32 3 9.4% −2.30

Aintree 31 10 32.3% +18.01

Stratford 28 3 10.7% −14.62

Market Rasen 27 0 0% −27.00

Doncaster 22 4 18.2% +0.50

Leicester 18 2 11.1% −12.25

Chepstow 18 2 11.1% −6.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 324 36 11.1% −114.22

Class 5 241 25 10.4% −22.99

Class 3 91 12 13.2% −14.62

Class 2 55 5 9.1% +32.25

Class 1 25 2 8% −13.80

Class 6 3 1 33.3% +1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 73 21 28.8% 0.99 −9.15

2nd–3rd fav 182 34 18.7% 1.07 −5.23

4th–6th fav 279 20 7.2% 0.91 −99.00

7th+ in betting 205 6 2.9% 0.99 −19.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85.2% completed · 630 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 181 79.6% 2 2 31 2 0

Hurdle 449 87.5% 10 5 39 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

My Bobby Dazzler (GB) 37 5 13 11 Jun 26

Malaita (GB) 35 5 16 6 Apr 26

Martalmix'jac (FR) 33 3 12 21 Apr 26

Masked Dance (FR) 26 3 11 27 Oct 26

Val Dancer (IRE) 21 6 9 21 Mar 26

Kyntara (GB)from Kim Bailey 15 2 5 4 Apr 26

My Virtue (GB)from Miss Katie Ayres 15 2 7 13 Oct 25

Raffle Ticket (GB) 15 5 7 25 Jan 25

Finalshot (GB)from Henry Daly 15 2 3 19 Jun 24

Wishing And Hoping (IRE)from Philip Rowley 15 3 7 29 Oct 23

Commanding View (IRE) 14 2 3 21 May 25

Latitude (IRE) 14 4 7 27 Jan 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 118 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Henry Daly (3) and Kim Bailey (2); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 59 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 8

Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

81277209602712816

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAlex Edwards

39% of all rides
10.3% SR · A/E 0.85

RiderRWSR£1

Alex Edwards 290 30 10.3% −54.23

Charlie Deutsch 200 25 12.5% +17.78

Toby Wynne 39 3 7.7% −20.17

Charlie Hammond 31 4 12.9% −11.02

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.14m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 24 wins

Val Dancer (IRE) — Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Run In Memory of Kim Gingell) (GBB Race) Chepstow · Dec 2024 · Class 1

£85,425

Wishing And Hoping (IRE) — Unibet Veterans' Handicap Chase (2022 Veterans' Chase Series Final) Sandown · Jan 2023 · Class 2

£51,440

Malaita (GB) — NAF Challenger Series Mares' Hurdle Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Apr 2023 · Class 2

£26,015

Notable horses

Val Dancer (IRE) My Bobby Dazzler (GB) Malaita (GB) Raffle Ticket (GB) Latitude (IRE) Maxcel (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Malinas (GER) 13% · 10–77

Progeny have won 14.1% of 3,952 runs since 2010 (419 horses).

Masked Marvel (GB) 8.1% · 3–37

Progeny have won 15.5% of 1,632 runs since 2019 (266 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 20% from 285.

Lord Du Sud (FR) 9.1% · 3–33

Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,025 runs since 2011 (115 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.8% from 146.

Telescope (IRE) 0% · 0–29

Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,911 runs since 2019 (296 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 105. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13% from 284.

Norse Dancer (IRE) 7.1% · 2–28

Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,800 runs since 2010 (157 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 14.7% from 278. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.3% from 207.

Shirocco (GER) 14.3% · 4–28

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,180 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 739 · newest first

The latest 50 of 739 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 January 2021 to 2 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Nov 26 Southwell Shorten Sassy (GB)J: Amber Jackson-Fennell Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 15/2

02 Nov 26 Southwell Percy J (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch Southwell Racecourse Conference And Events Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 4th 66/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Just In A Bit (GB)J: Toby Wynne Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 11/2

01 Nov 26 Worcester Kastellion (FR)J: Charlie Deutsch Copybet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 4th 12/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee My Bobby's Lass (GB)J: Toby Wynne Overton Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 1st 17/2

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Mahland (IRE)J: Toby Wynne Mount Vines Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran UR 50/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Masked Dance (FR)J: Charlie Deutsch Kellyhill Financial Planning Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 6th 16/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Littlebobbydazzler (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch Lucy's 40th Birthday Celebration Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 5/1

13 Oct 26 Southwell Shorten Sassy (GB)J: Murray Dodd Golf And Gallop Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 6 ran 6th 11/2

13 Oct 26 Southwell Cheesy Icon (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch Heb Group "the Power Behind Everyday" Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 9/2

01 Oct 26 Southwell My Bobby's Lass (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 16/1

04 Sep 26 Bangor-on-Dee My Bobby's Lass (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch Genesis Wealth Management Novices' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 40/1

13 Jun 26 Uttoxeter R Bernard (GB)J: Toby Wynne moogangetsknighted Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran PU 25/1

11 Jun 26 Worcester My Bobby Dazzler (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch CopyBet Proudly Backs UK Horse Racing Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 23f · Good · 8 ran 4th 17/2

25 May 26 Cartmel My Bobby Dazzler (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch Hugh Cavendish Veterans' Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 29.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 6/1

25 May 26 Cartmel R Bernard (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch Johnny & Tony Connell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 22f · Good · 11 ran 9th 12/1

23 May 26 Bangor-on-Dee Anniespatient (IRE)J: Charlie Deutsch Wrexham Evening On Friday 26th June Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 9/2

15 May 26 Aintree Masked Dance (FR)J: Charlie Deutsch HA Civils Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 5th 7/2

10 May 26 Ludlow Shorten Sassy (GB)J: Shane Quinlan Lion Leintwardine Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 5th 7/2

05 May 26 Ffos Las Parliamo (IRE)J: Mr Darren Andrews James Bowen Ton Up Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 1st 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 13 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 2 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Mel Rowley's strike rate?: Mel Rowley has won 81 of 739 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mel Rowley do best at?: Aintree by strike rate: 10 wins from 31 runners (32.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Mel Rowley?: Alex Edwards, with 290 runners since 2008 — 39% of the total. That pairing has won 30 (10.3%).
Is Mel Rowley in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mel Rowley's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 739 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.