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Trainer profile

Ms Maria Kelly

152 runners in the lifetime window · 22 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2021
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
2–152
Wins / Runs
1.3%
Strike rate
n=152
8 (5%)
Placed
0.40
Fair A/E
n=152 · 0.31 incl. margin
−116.00
£1 level stake
n=152 at SP · −76.3%
£23,491
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.40).

Deterministic profile computed from 152 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 1.8%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.8%+0.5
n=55 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −29.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.1%+9.8
n=9 · A/E 2.47 · £1 +17.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.3
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.3%+0.0
n=76 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −66.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m – 1m1f 3.3% vs 1.3% · n=30
In Hurdle races 0% vs 1.3% · n=51 · A/E 0.00
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 70 1 1.4% −44.00
Hurdle 51 0 0% −51.00
Chase 18 1 5.6% −8.00
NH Flat 13 0 0% −13.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 55 1 1.8% −29.00
Good 26 1 3.8% −16.00
Heavy 20 0 0% −20.00
Good to Firm 18 0 0% −18.00
Standard (AW) 18 0 0% −18.00
Good to Soft 15 0 0% −15.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 14 0 0% −14.00
Naas 11 0 0% −11.00
Punchestown 10 0 0% −10.00
Gowran Park 10 0 0% −10.00
Tipperary 8 0 0% −8.00
Down Royal 8 0 0% −8.00
Curragh 8 0 0% −8.00
Clonmel 7 1 14.3% +3.00
Listowel 7 0 0% −7.00
Leopardstown 7 0 0% −7.00
Roscommon 7 0 0% −7.00
Navan 6 0 0% −6.00
Fairyhouse 6 0 0% −6.00
Cork 6 0 0% −6.00
Killarney 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 4 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 5 0 0% 0.00 −5.00
4th–6th fav 23 1 4.3% 0.71 −13.00
7th+ in betting 123 1 0.8% 0.36 −97.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Hidden Diamond (IRE) 40 1 4 26 Aug 18
Balaclava (IRE)from Charles O'Brien · then D J Bunyan 20 0 1 16 Dec 21
Nomadic Diamond (IRE) 16 0 0 23 Sep 13
Bobs Hope (IRE) 15 0 0 1 Sep 11
Definitely Best (IRE) 10 0 0 4 Aug 14
New Atalanta (IRE)from Richard Brabazon 8 0 1 26 Nov 11
Josie James (IRE) 8 0 0 5 Jun 10
Michael Collins (IRE)from Edgar Byrne · then Graham Smith 8 0 1 29 Sep 09
Appraise (IRE)from W McCreery · then G F O'Brien 5 1 1 27 Dec 09
Glendaars Best (IRE)then Aidan Anthony Howard 3 0 0 9 Aug 12
Western Star (IRE)then G T Lynch 3 0 0 2 Feb 11
Diamondsandstars (IRE) 2 0 0 10 May 21
All 22 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 22 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Edgar Byrne (2); 13 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard; 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000700005000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Ben Curtis 27 0 0% −27.00
Roger Loughran 24 0 0% −24.00
Ms M Kelly 12 0 0% −12.00
Sean McDermott 8 0 0% −8.00
Ray Dawson 5 0 0% −5.00
K T Hogan 5 0 0% −5.00
Gavin Brouder 5 0 0% −5.00
Miss P Elvin 4 0 0% −4.00
Seamie Heffernan 4 0 0% −4.00
Andrew P Thornton 4 0 0% −4.00
Gearoid Brouder 4 0 0% −4.00
Daniel Howard 4 0 0% −4.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
2
Archived wins
£24,219
Prize money
2012
Best season · 1 win
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Hidden Diamond (IRE) — www.thetote.com Beginners Chase Clonmel · Apr 2012
£5,520
Appraise (IRE) — Gypsum Industries Handicap (47-65) Ballinrobe · Sep 2009
£5,183
Notable horses
Hidden Diamond (IRE) Appraise (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Flemensfirth (USA) 2.5% · 1–40
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,282 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).
Duke Of Marmalade (IRE) 0% · 0–20
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,539 runs since 2008 (307 horses).
Diamond Green (FR) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 7.4% of 2,572 runs since 2008 (261 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.9% from 286.
Bob's Return (IRE) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,268 runs since 2008 (219 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.8% from 254.
King's Best (USA) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.
Oasis Dream (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,014 runs since 2008 (1,510 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 483. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 169 · newest first

The latest 50 of 169 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 November 2006 to 16 December 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 Dec 21 Naas Balaclava (IRE)J: Gearoid Brouder Clinton Higgins Chartered Accountants Handicap Chase (0-102)16f · Yielding · 17 ran PU 16/1
21 Nov 21 Navan Balaclava (IRE)J: Gearoid Brouder Boardsmill Stud Irish EBF Beginners Chase17f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 150/1
26 Oct 21 Curragh Balaclava (IRE)J: Ms M Kelly Paddy Power Amateur Riders Derby (Q.R.) Race12f · Yielding To Soft · 11 ran 9th 300/1
03 Oct 21 Killarney Balaclava (IRE)J: Gearoid Brouder Extra Places Everyday At BetVictor Beginners Chase17f · Yielding To Soft · 6 ran 4th 300/1
10 May 21 Killarney Diamondsandstars (IRE)J: Miss L McLoughlin KillarneyRaces.ie Flat Race17f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran PU 150/1
22 Nov 20 Navan Balaclava (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder BetVictor Handicap Hurdle (80-95)20f · Soft · 20 ran 16th 28/1
10 Nov 20 Fairyhouse Balaclava (IRE)J: Ms H Mooney fairyhouse.ie (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 8th 12/1
06 Nov 20 Curragh Balaclava (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Paddy Power Home Of The Money Back Special Maiden9f · Heavy · 12 ran 7th 200/1
14 Oct 20 Punchestown Balaclava (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Stanley Asphalt Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Yielding · 17 ran 10th 25/1
13 Oct 20 Punchestown Diamondsandstars (IRE)J: Ms M Kelly Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race16f · Yielding · 17 ran 17th 100/1
11 Oct 20 Curragh Balaclava (IRE)J: Ms M Kelly Chapmans Kildare Amateur Riders Derby12f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 150/1
13 Aug 20 Tramore Newlyn (IRE)J: Ms M Kelly Dunmore East (Ladies) Maiden16f · Good · 11 ran 10th 150/1
07 Aug 20 Tipperary Balaclava (IRE)J: Ms M Kelly Racing Again 17th August (Ladies) Handicap12.5f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 6th 50/1
31 Dec 19 Punchestown Balaclava (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 2nd 25/1
28 Dec 19 Leopardstown Balaclava (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Irish Daily Star Christmas Handicap Hurdle (80-116)20.5f · Soft · 23 ran BD 50/1
28 Sep 19 Curragh Balaclava (IRE)J: Ms M Kelly Keadeen Hotel Ladies Invitational Handicap12f · Yielding · 19 ran 16th 50/1
12 Sep 19 Listowel Balaclava (IRE)J: Ms M Kelly Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race14f · Soft · 12 ran 6th 66/1
31 Aug 19 Down Royal Balaclava (IRE)J: Ronan Whelan Racing TV Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)12.5f · Soft · 13 ran 7th 12/1
09 Jul 19 Roscommon Princessofdiamonds (IRE)J: Simon Torrens Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle21f · Good · 14 ran 13th 66/1
24 Jun 19 Ballinrobe Balaclava (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Brendan McNulty Memorial Maiden13f · Yielding To Soft · 11 ran 7th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ms Maria Kelly's strike rate?
Ms Maria Kelly has won 2 of 152 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 1.3% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Ms Maria Kelly's Fair A/E?
0.40, from 152 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).