What is Paul Collins's strike rate?

Paul Collins has won 18 of 202 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Collins do best at?

Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 34 runners (2.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is Paul Collins's Fair A/E?

1.09, from 202 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Collins

202 runners in the lifetime window · 40 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Sep 2025

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

18–202

Wins / Runs

8.9%

Strike rate

n=202

47 (23%)

Placed

1.09

Fair A/E

n=202 · 0.94 incl. margin

−62.29

£1 level stake

n=202 at SP · −30.8%

£139k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.09). With a claiming rider up the record reads 13% (87 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 202 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 12.6%

The read

It is weakest at Newcastle (AW) (2.9% over 34 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 12.6% (n=87, Fair A/E 1.32). The yard also reads well in Chase races (15.9%, n=44) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (15.6%, n=45). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 2.2% over 46 runners, 6.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 6f – 7f: Fair A/E 0.55 across 58 runners (3.4% strike, −44.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Dica (FR) — 6 wins from 20 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.2%−0.7

n=49 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −24.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

4%−4.9

n=25 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −13.00

Debutants · first career start

6.7%−2.2

n=15 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +2.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11.1%+2.2

n=9 · A/E 1.43 · £1 −6.62

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10%+1.1

n=10 · A/E 1.71 · £1 −4.00

When favourite

46.2%

n=13 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +2.46

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.6%+3.7

n=87 · A/E 1.32 · £1 +7.85

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Chase races 15.9% vs 8.9% · n=44

On Standard (AW) going 2.2% vs 8.9% · n=46

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 15.6% vs 8.9% · n=45

Over 6f – 7f 3.4% vs 8.9% · n=58

At Newcastle (AW) 2.9% vs 8.9% · n=34

With claiming riders up 12.6% vs 8.9% · n=87

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 95 5 5.3% −68.27

Hurdle 49 5 10.2% −8.15

Chase 44 7 15.9% +11.13

NH Flat 14 1 7.1% +3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 51 4 7.8% −4.75

Standard (AW) 46 1 2.2% −44.27

Soft 44 5 11.4% −10.65

Good to Soft 35 2 5.7% −10.50

Good to Firm 15 3 20% +4.00

Heavy 10 2 20% −1.12

Firm 1 1 100% +5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 34 1 2.9% −32.27

Hexham 25 4 16% +27.88

Carlisle 20 3 15% −10.75

Sedgefield 12 2 16.7% +4.50

Newcastle 11 0 0% −11.00

Redcar 11 0 0% −11.00

Doncaster 7 1 14.3% −4.90

Catterick 7 1 14.3% −3.50

Wetherby 7 0 0% −7.00

Hamilton 5 0 0% −5.00

Chelmsford City (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00

Uttoxeter 5 1 20% +12.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00

Market Rasen 5 0 0% −5.00

Southwell 4 1 25% +8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 75 9 12% +28.38

Class 6 59 3 5.1% −50.52

Class 4 54 3 5.6% −34.00

Class 3 9 3 33.3% −1.15

Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 13 6 46.2% 1.41 +2.46

2nd–3rd fav 30 4 13.3% 0.82 −9.25

4th–6th fav 69 4 5.8% 0.76 −38.50

7th+ in betting 90 4 4.4% 1.82 −17.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Roys Dream (GB)from Kristin Stubbs 22 3 7 11 Jul 19

Dica (FR)from Patrick Griffin 20 6 11 4 May 19

Solid Strike (GB)from A J Kennedy 18 1 4 8 Dec 21

Songbird's Tale (GB) 15 1 2 6 May 23

To Chase A Dream (GB)then John Dawson 10 3 8 8 Mar 25

Dream Revival (GB)from James Unett 10 1 5 11 Jan 18

Somekindasuperstar (GB)then Jessica Macey 8 0 2 20 Oct 20

Gift In Time (IRE)from James Given 8 0 0 19 Aug 19

Blazing Hot (GB)from James Tate · then Grant Tuer 7 0 0 19 Oct 21

Rebeljustforkicks (GB) 7 0 0 10 Mar 20

Cap Ricochet (GB)then John Dawson 6 0 1 14 Apr 25

Joto (GB)then John Dawson 6 0 1 9 Mar 25

All 40 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 40 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Keith Reveley (2) and Patrick Griffin (2); 15 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for John Dawson (5); 30 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

00188951471113014

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

RiderRWSR£1

Ross Chapman 26 5 19.2% +23.50

Brian Hughes 20 4 20% +0.13

Mr John Dawson 12 1 8.3% −9.90

David Allan 10 0 0% −10.00

Conor McGovern 9 1 11.1% −5.50

Mr Paul Collins 8 1 12.5% −4.75

Jonny Peate 7 0 0% −7.00

Danny McMenamin 7 0 0% −7.00

Joe Williamson 6 0 0% −6.00

James Sullivan 6 0 0% −6.00

Alan Doyle 5 0 0% −5.00

Tom Eaves 5 0 0% −5.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→

Archived wins

£139k

Prize money

2017

Best season · 5 wins

To Chase A Dream (GB) — Racing TV Free Trial Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Dec 2024 · Class 3

£7,922

To Chase A Dream (GB) — Trade Copiers 22 Year Anniversary Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Oct 2024 · Class 3

£7,922

Dica (FR) — Watch Racing Uk In Stunning Hd Handicap Chase Catterick · Mar 2018 · Class 4

£6,758

Notable horses

Dica (FR) Roys Dream (GB) To Chase A Dream (GB) Solid Strike (GB) Songbird's Tale (GB) Dream Revival (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Monsieur Bond (IRE) 13.6% · 3–22

Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,981 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Ghadeer (FR) 30% · 6–20

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,631 runs since 2008 (725 horses).

Sir Harry Lewis (USA) 5.6% · 1–18

Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.

Sulamani (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15

Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,246 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.

Cannock Chase (USA) 30% · 3–10

Progeny have won 7.4% of 311 runs since 2020 (34 horses).

Captain Gerrard (IRE) 10% · 1–10

Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,054 runs since 2013 (175 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 202 · newest first

The latest 50 of 202 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 April 2013 to 16 September 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Sep 25 Redcar Stretch (GB)J: Jonny Peate Try RacingTV Free Now At racingtv.com/freetrial HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Good · 5 ran 4th 66/1

16 Sep 25 Redcar Island Of Skye (GB)J: Jonny Peate Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 10th 50/1

08 Sep 25 Newcastle (AW) Island Of Skye (GB)J: Jonny Peate Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 6th 16/1

09 Aug 25 Redcar Contest (GB)J: Jonny Peate Celebrate The Life Of Ann Allport HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 7th 8/1

20 Jul 25 Redcar Contest (GB)J: Alex Jary Sky Bet Extra Places Daily Apprentice Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 200/1

08 Jul 25 Uttoxeter Whin Cover (GB)J: Brian Hughes Eaton Hall Shooting Ground Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 5th 25/1

27 Jun 25 Newcastle (AW) Contest (GB)J: Jonny Peate JenningsBet In Shiremoor Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 250/1

26 Jun 25 Leicester Island Of Skye (GB)J: Jonny Peate Sophie Ellis-Bextor Plays Ladies' Day 'Confined' HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 3rd 13/2

06 Jun 25 Thirsk Contest (GB)J: Jonny Peate Thomas Lord Restaurant A View To Dine For Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 6th 66/1

25 May 25 Uttoxeter Whin Cover (GB)J: Danny McMenamin QuinnBet Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 7th 33/1

03 May 25 Hexham Foxey (GB)J: Mr John Dawson Lindsay Jackson 50th Birthday Celebration Selling HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 50/1

14 Apr 25 Hexham Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Danny McMenamin EBF Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 16/1

14 Apr 25 Hexham Foxey (GB)J: Joe Williamson Horslyx - For Horse's Health & Welfare Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 50/1

28 Mar 25 Wetherby Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Wearahatday Supporting Brain Tumour Awareness Month Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 6th 50/1

26 Mar 25 Market Rasen Bold Jury (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Experience Irish Racing With ITM Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17f · Good · 6 ran UR 13/2

20 Mar 25 Sedgefield Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Danny McMenamin betvickers.com Now Live! Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran UR 12/1

16 Mar 25 Market Rasen Bold Jury (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Bet At racingtv.com Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17f · Good · 6 ran UR 11/1

09 Mar 25 Carlisle Joto (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Blackwell Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 13/2

09 Mar 25 Carlisle Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Brian Hughes Racing TV EBF Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 5th 22/1

08 Mar 25 Sandown To Chase A Dream (GB)J: Brian Hughes Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 6th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Collins's strike rate?: Paul Collins has won 18 of 202 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Collins do best at?: Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 34 runners (2.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Paul Collins's Fair A/E?: 1.09, from 202 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.