Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.59). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 6% off breaks of two months or more (67 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 243 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 6%Claiming riders: 2.2%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 6% (n=67, Fair A/E 1.74). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.60 and −125.00 to a £1 stake over 182 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well off a 61-180-day break (9.4%, n=32). The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.00 across 63 runners (0% strike, −63.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6%+3.9
n=67 · A/E 1.74 · £1 −14.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.1
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.1
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.1
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.1
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.2%+0.1
n=182 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −125.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 61-180-day break9.4% vs 2.1% · n=32
On Good going4.5% vs 2.1% · n=66
Over 2m5f – 3m4.3% vs 2.1% · n=70
Over 2m1f – 2m4f0% vs 2.1% · n=63
On Heavy going0% vs 2.1% · n=57
Off a 31-60-day break0% vs 2.1% · n=41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle13932.2%−94.00
Flat5012%−42.00
Chase4612.2%−29.00
NH Flat800%−8.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft7411.4%−57.00
Good6634.5%−21.00
Heavy5700%−57.00
Good to Soft2000%−20.00
Good to Firm1915.3%−11.00
Standard (AW)600%−6.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork3612.8%−21.00
Limerick3213.1%−15.00
Tramore2015%−7.00
Clonmel1700%−17.00
Thurles1400%−14.00
Listowel1400%−14.00
Gowran Park1417.1%−6.00
Punchestown1000%−10.00
Killarney1000%−10.00
Kilbeggan900%−9.00
Tipperary800%−8.00
Navan800%−8.00
Fairyhouse700%−7.00
Roscommon7114.3%+10.00
Wexford700%−7.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6300%−3.00
Class 5200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav1516.7%0.54−7.00
4th–6th fav3000%0.00−30.00
7th+ in betting19842%0.83−136.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m7111.4%−58.00
2m5f – 3m7034.3%−21.00
2m1f – 2m4f6300%−63.00
1m2f – 1m4f1915.3%−11.00
1m – 1m1f900%−9.00
Over 3m600%−6.00
6f – 7f400%−4.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20083912.6%−31.00
20092314.3%−10.00
20101800%−18.00
201116212.5%+16.00
20123200%−32.00
20132100%−21.00
20141700%−17.00
2015300%−3.00
2016800%−8.00
2017800%−8.00
201810110%+7.00
2019600%−6.00
2020300%−3.00
20211300%−13.00
20221500%−15.00
20231100%−11.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps11943.4%−64.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
17+ runners7922.5%−47.00
14-16 runners7622.6%−46.00
11-13 runners5112%−43.00
8-10 runners2800%−28.00
5-7 runners900%−9.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 38 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 38 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (2) and John Joseph Murphy (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard; 32 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000730040500
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
6
Archived wins
£80,922
Prize money
2011
Best season · 2 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Dash Of Grey (IRE) — Corporate Events At Gowran Park Handicap (50-80) Gowran Park · May 2008
£8,638
Always On Top (IRE) — Derrinstown Stud Apprentice H'cap (rated 40-70) Gowran Park · Aug 2006
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,027 runs since 2008 (136 horses).
Lahib (USA)0% · 0–21
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,699 runs since 2008 (176 horses).
Southern Halo (USA)0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 0% of 41 runs since 2008 (4 horses).
Alhaarth (IRE)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 9.7% of 4,158 runs since 2008 (308 horses).
Bob Back (USA)0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Mujadil (USA)0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 8.2% of 2,379 runs since 2008 (132 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.7% from 111.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 321 · newest first
The latest 50 of 321 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 March 2006 to 26 July 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Ruaidhri Joseph Tierney's strike rate?
Ruaidhri Joseph Tierney has won 5 of 243 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.1% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ruaidhri Joseph Tierney do best at?
Limerick by strike rate: 1 wins from 32 runners (3.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Ruaidhri Joseph Tierney's Fair A/E?
0.59, from 243 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Ruaidhri Joseph Tierney·SR 2.1%·A/E 0.59
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