Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 2.2%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 1.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.2%+3.1
n=24 · A/E 2.03 · £1 −1.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.1
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
8.3%+7.2
n=12 · A/E 3.51 · £1 +11.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.2%+1.1
n=46 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −23.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 6f – 7f3.2% vs 1.1% · n=31
In Flat races1.8% vs 1.1% · n=56 · A/E 0.52
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat5611.8%−33.00
Hurdle2300%−23.00
Chase1100%−11.00
NH Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3500%−35.00
Good2100%−21.00
Standard (AW)1417.1%+9.00
Heavy1100%−11.00
Good to Soft1000%−10.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)1417.1%+9.00
Curragh1400%−14.00
Down Royal1100%−11.00
Fairyhouse800%−8.00
Navan800%−8.00
Downpatrick700%−7.00
Punchestown700%−7.00
Naas500%−5.00
Bellewstown300%−3.00
Kilbeggan300%−3.00
Ayr200%−2.00
Cork200%−2.00
Tipperary200%−2.00
Leopardstown200%−2.00
Limerick100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav200%0.00−2.00
4th–6th fav800%0.00−8.00
7th+ in betting8111.2%0.61−58.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f3113.2%−8.00
2m1f – 2m4f2000%−20.00
Under 6f1200%−12.00
2m5f – 3m900%−9.00
1m – 1m1f800%−8.00
1m5f – 2m700%−7.00
1m2f – 1m4f400%−4.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20225000%−50.00
20232514%−2.00
20241600%−16.00
2025100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5911.7%−36.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners2813.6%−5.00
17+ runners2600%−26.00
11-13 runners2500%−25.00
8-10 runners1100%−11.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 17 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 14 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 13 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0000000000017
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,261 runs since 2008 (306 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 956. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 864. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 723.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,272 runs since 2008 (200 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 285.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 591 · newest first
The latest 50 of 591 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 May 2007 to 5 January 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Sarah Dawson's strike rate?
Sarah Dawson has won 1 of 92 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 1.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Sarah Dawson's Fair A/E?
0.40, from 92 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Sarah Dawson·SR 1.1%·A/E 0.40
KTB
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