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Trainer profile

Sarah Dawson

585 runners in the lifetime window · 93 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jan 2025
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
21–585
Wins / Runs
3.6%
Strike rate
n=585
70 (12%)
Placed
0.93
Fair A/E
n=585 · 0.73 incl. margin
−330.15
£1 level stake
n=585 at SP · −56.4%
£352k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 7% (45 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 585 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Aug Seamie Heffernan: 6.2% from 65 Headgear returns: 6.7% Claiming riders: 4.3%
The read

The record is strongest at Curragh (8.3%, n=48), clear of the yard's 3.6% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 6.7% (n=45, Fair A/E 1.77), but debutants struggle at 0% (n=60, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.48 and −106.00 to a £1 stake over 138 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Seamie Heffernan rides 11% of the entries and edges the yard's average (6.2% vs 3.6%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (10.7%, n=56) and on Good to Firm going (9.5%, n=42). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 0% over 58 runners, 3.6pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.4%−2.2
n=138 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −106.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
3%−0.6
n=33 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −24.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.6
n=60 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −60.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.6
n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.7%+3.1
n=45 · A/E 1.77 · £1 +3.50
When favourite
22.2%
n=9 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −3.15
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.3%+0.7
n=255 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −94.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.6
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At trips under 6f 10.7% vs 3.6% · n=56
On Good to Firm going 9.5% vs 3.6% · n=42
At Curragh 8.3% vs 3.6% · n=48
With horses switching code 0% vs 3.6% · n=106
With debutants 0% vs 3.6% · n=60
Over 1m – 1m1f 0% vs 3.6% · n=58
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 32.6% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 344 16 4.7% −164.15
Hurdle 169 3 1.8% −130.00
Chase 39 1 2.6% −20.00
NH Flat 33 1 3% −16.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 177 8 4.5% −82.90
Good 148 2 1.4% −114.00
Standard (AW) 101 2 2% −71.00
Heavy 58 3 5.2% −27.25
Good to Soft 56 2 3.6% −24.00
Good to Firm 42 4 9.5% −8.00
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 96 2 2.1% −66.00
Down Royal 93 3 3.2% −41.00
Curragh 48 4 8.3% −22.75
Downpatrick 38 1 2.6% −19.00
Navan 36 1 2.8% −17.00
Fairyhouse 31 0 0% −31.00
Punchestown 26 0 0% −26.00
Naas 26 1 3.8% −13.00
Leopardstown 24 0 0% −24.00
Galway 19 2 10.5% +13.00
Gowran Park 17 0 0% −17.00
Bellewstown 15 2 13.3% +2.00
Sligo 14 1 7.1% −6.00
Tipperary 9 1 11.1% −3.50
Cork 9 0 0% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 11 0 0% −11.00
Class 4 11 1 9.1% −8.90
Class 6 10 1 10% +5.00
Class 5 7 1 14.3% +10.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 14 3 21.4% 1.04 −2.65
2nd–3rd fav 28 2 7.1% 0.53 −15.00
4th–6th fav 102 9 8.8% 1.56 −2.50
7th+ in betting 441 7 1.6% 0.69 −310.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Magic Sea (IRE) 72 3 13 26 Dec 22
Pretty Boy Floyd (IRE) 44 4 15 12 Oct 23
Slew Charm (FR)from Noel Chance 31 1 8 30 May 14
Degenerous (IRE) 24 2 3 4 Nov 16
Boris Boru (IRE) 19 0 3 8 Jan 19
Our Patron Saint (IRE) 18 0 0 26 Dec 22
Clare Glen (IRE)from Lee Smyth 18 4 6 7 Dec 12
Reinas Queen (IRE) 16 1 3 1 Sep 17
Slainte (IRE) 15 0 1 28 Feb 20
Bride Tree (GB)from Adrian McGuinness 11 1 4 17 Sep 24
Grand Opera (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 11 1 2 29 Aug 14
Carla's Kodi Bear (IRE) 10 0 1 18 Jan 23
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 93 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A Oliver (2) and Gordon Elliott (2); 41 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Mrs Caroline McCaldin (3); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
002025553449
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderSeamie Heffernan
11% of all rides
6.2% SR · A/E 1.13
RiderRWSR£1
Seamie Heffernan 65 4 6.2% −27.50
Mr N McParlan 40 1 2.5% −21.00
Conor Maxwell 32 0 0% −32.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→
21
Archived wins
£352k
Prize money
2020
Best season · 4 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Clare Glen (IRE) — Guinness Handicap Galway · Jul 2011
£36,000
Diamond Eyes (IRE) — Foran Equine Irish EBF Auction Fillies Maiden (Plus 10) Navan · Sep 2020
£14,160
Clare Glen (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Fillies Handicap (60-95) Curragh · Jun 2011
£13,000
Notable horses
Pretty Boy Floyd (IRE) Clare Glen (IRE) Magic Sea (IRE) Degenerous (IRE) Abstraction (IRE) Slew Charm (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Born To Sea (IRE) 4.2% · 3–72
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,294 runs since 2016 (311 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 868. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 725.
Footstepsinthesand (GB) 9.1% · 4–44
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,812 runs since 2009 (938 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Generous (IRE) 6.5% · 2–31
Progeny have won 10.7% of 3,332 runs since 2008 (251 horses).
Marathon (USA) 3.2% · 1–31
Progeny have won 8.2% of 255 runs since 2008 (26 horses).
Sakhee (USA) 17.4% · 4–23
Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,981 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 611. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.2% from 139.
Brian Boru (GB) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 11% of 4,124 runs since 2009 (285 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 591 · newest first

The latest 50 of 591 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 May 2007 to 5 January 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
05 Jan 25 Naas Bruno From Mars (IRE)J: Gearoid Brouder Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle19f · Heavy · 17 ran PU 100/1
26 Dec 24 Down Royal Bruno From Mars (IRE)J: Tom Harney Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran PU 100/1
23 Oct 24 Navan Anchors Away (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden6f · Yielding · 19 ran 15th 150/1
22 Oct 24 Curragh Our Dagger (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap (47-65)7f · Soft · 24 ran 17th 33/1
20 Sep 24 Dundalk (AW) Macloud (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 150/1
17 Sep 24 Punchestown Bride Tree (GB)J: N G McCullagh William Hill Proper Betting Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)9f · Good · 13 ran 13th 22/1
17 Aug 24 Curragh Macloud (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Irish European Breeders Fund Median Sires Series Maiden6f · Good · 17 ran 12th 100/1
15 Aug 24 Dundalk (AW) Bride Tree (GB)J: Jack Cleary Bar One Racing Guaranteed Multiples All Shops Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 12/1
09 Jun 24 Punchestown Mr Chester (IRE)J: Benjamin P Kennedy John Dowling Memorial Maiden Hurdle23.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 12th 150/1
02 Jun 24 Kilbeggan Mr Chester (IRE)J: Cian Cullinan Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 16 ran PU 40/1
24 May 24 Curragh Anchors Away (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Irish European Breeders Fund Auction Series Maiden6f · Good · 21 ran 20th 100/1
17 May 24 Leopardstown Bride Tree (GB)J: Shane Foley GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap (50-70) (Div 2)8f · Good · 16 ran 14th 12/1
13 Apr 24 Dundalk (AW) Bride Tree (GB)J: Jack Cleary Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 16/1
30 Mar 24 Fairyhouse Bruno From Mars (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Tom Quinlan Electrical Maiden Hurdle20f · Heavy · 18 ran 14th 200/1
23 Mar 24 Navan Bruno From Mars (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Mongey Communications Maiden Hurdle15.5f · Heavy · 16 ran 13th 200/1
10 Mar 24 Limerick Bruno From Mars (IRE)J: Tom Harney Irish Stallion Farms EBF (Pro/Am) Auction Flat Race16f · Heavy · 8 ran 8th 100/1
24 Feb 24 Fairyhouse Bruno From Mars (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 13 ran 8th 150/1
13 Dec 23 Dundalk (AW) Bride Tree (GB)J: Jack Cleary Gateway Hotel Dundalk Race & Stay Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 22/1
12 Oct 23 Curragh Pretty Boy Floyd (IRE)J: Shane Foley 20 Years Taxi4Horses Handicap (47-75)5f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 9th 10/1
07 Oct 23 Curragh Bride Tree (GB)J: Alan Persse Derek O'Sullivan Race 50th Anniversary Apprentice Handicap8f · Soft · 19 ran 18th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Sarah Dawson's strike rate?
Sarah Dawson has won 21 of 585 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.6% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Sarah Dawson do best at?
Curragh by strike rate: 4 wins from 48 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Sarah Dawson?
Seamie Heffernan, with 65 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (6.2%).
What is Sarah Dawson's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 585 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).