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Trainer profile

Shane Nolan

206 runners in the last 5 seasons · 20 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Aug 2025
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)
from 1 Jan 2022
9–206
Wins / Runs
4.4%
Strike rate
n=206
51 (25%)
Placed
0.74
Fair A/E
n=206 · 0.59 incl. margin
−147.00
£1 level stake
n=206 at SP · −71.4%
£149k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
4.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.74).

Deterministic profile computed from 206 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Shane Fitzgerald: 7% from 57 Claiming riders: 5%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=33, Fair A/E 0.00). Shane Fitzgerald rides 28% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7% vs 4.4%, A/E 0.95). The yard also reads well on Heavy going (12.5%, n=32) and off a 31-60-day break (10%, n=60). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 38 runners, 4.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.27 across 78 runners (1.3% strike, −69.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse (Jan 2020, £59,000). The stable star of the record: Charlie Stout (IRE) — 6 wins from 62 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.4
n=33 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −33.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+5.6
n=10 · A/E 2.57 · £1 −3.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.4
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
0%
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5%+0.6
n=80 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −52.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.4
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Heavy going 12.5% vs 4.4% · n=32
Off a 31-60-day break 10% vs 4.4% · n=60
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 4.4% · n=38
On Soft going 1.3% vs 4.4% · n=78
With Shane Fitzgerald 7% vs 4.4% · n=57
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 6.8% vs 4.4% · n=74
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 132 7 5.3% −87.50
Chase 37 2 5.4% −22.50
Flat 25 0 0% −25.00
NH Flat 12 0 0% −12.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 78 1 1.3% −69.00
Good 65 2 3.1% −53.50
Heavy 32 4 12.5% −7.50
Good to Soft 31 2 6.5% −17.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 27 2 7.4% −12.50
Fairyhouse 19 0 0% −19.00
Ballinrobe 18 0 0% −18.00
Navan 15 0 0% −15.00
Limerick 15 4 26.7% +9.50
Naas 13 0 0% −13.00
Bellewstown 10 0 0% −10.00
Leopardstown 10 0 0% −10.00
Wexford 9 1 11.1% −3.50
Thurles 9 0 0% −9.00
Kilbeggan 8 0 0% −8.00
Tramore 8 1 12.5% +1.00
Galway 7 0 0% −7.00
Gowran Park 6 0 0% −6.00
Roscommon 5 1 20% +0.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 0 0% 0.00 −10.00
2nd–3rd fav 26 5 19.2% 1.37 +5.00
4th–6th fav 47 4 8.5% 1.04 −19.00
7th+ in betting 123 0 0% 0.00 −123.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
84% completed · 169 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 37 70.3% 1 2 8 0 0
Hurdle 132 87.9% 1 2 13 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Mister Beeton (IRE) 25 2 6 25 Aug 25
Cosmo Renfro (IRE)then Gavin Cromwell 22 2 8 1 Jun 25
Missus Beeton (IRE)then J P Dempsey 20 1 8 10 Nov 24
Klassman (IRE) 18 0 5 25 Aug 25
Pipers Boreen (IRE) 17 2 7 31 May 25
Charlie Stout (IRE) 17 1 3 20 Aug 23
Jukebox Jive (FR)from Gavin Cromwell 16 0 1 2 Oct 23
Yulong Voice (GB)from Mrs John Harrington 15 1 5 7 Oct 24
Hot Whispers (IRE)then Denis Gerard Hogan 14 0 3 16 May 23
Lady L'lerom (IRE)from M C Grassick 10 0 4 5 Aug 22
Somethingaboutcian (GB) 9 0 0 24 Jul 23
Britzka (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 5 0 0 8 Jul 24
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 20 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 12 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard; 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
013410381100060
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderShane Fitzgerald
28% of all rides
7% SR · A/E 0.95
RiderRWSR£1
Shane Fitzgerald 57 4 7% −31.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→
44
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£641k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 7 wins
Charlie Stout (IRE) — Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A) Fairyhouse · Jan 2020 · Grade A
£59,000
Caolaneoin (IRE) — Panoramic Restaurant Handicap Chase Punchestown · May 2017
£15,375
Charlie Stout (IRE) — Arctic Tack Stud Veterans Handicap Chase Wexford · Mar 2023
£12,980
Notable horses
Charlie Stout (IRE) Schoolboy Error (IRE) Youngnedofthehill (IRE) Guiding (IRE) Sister Slew (IRE) L'attesa (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mamool (IRE) 6.7% · 3–45
Progeny have won 12.6% of 604 runs since 2008 (61 horses). Strongest on Good going: 17.2% from 186. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8.6% from 105. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 17.6% from 165. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 8.6% from 139.
Arctic Cosmos (USA) 9.1% · 2–22
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,299 runs since 2008 (131 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.3% from 194.
Jet Away (GB) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,490 runs since 2008 (267 horses).
Spadoun (FR) 5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 12.2% of 1,144 runs since 2008 (70 horses).
Westerner (GB) 11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,815 runs since 2008 (940 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Jukebox Jury (IRE) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 13.5% of 2,213 runs since 2008 (251 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 808 · newest first

The latest 50 of 808 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 July 2012 to 25 August 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
25 Aug 25 Ballinrobe Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Corrib Oil Beginners Chase23.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 25/1
25 Aug 25 Ballinrobe Klassman (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler On-Course Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22.5f · Good · 11 ran 7th 8/1
22 Jul 25 Ballinrobe Klassman (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Sweeney Oil Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22f · Good · 15 ran 10th 12/1
05 Jul 25 Bellewstown Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Johnny's Race Day Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good · 15 ran 10th 25/1
05 Jul 25 Bellewstown Klassman (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20.5f · Good · 16 ran PU 5/1
09 Jun 25 Roscommon Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley www.roscommonracecourse.ie Beginners Chase25f · Good · 6 ran 4th 12/1
01 Jun 25 Kilbeggan Cosmo Renfro (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Joe Quinn Transport Longford Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Good · 14 ran PU 28/1
31 May 25 Tramore Pipers Boreen (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Tramore Handicap Chase22f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 5th 4/1J
29 May 25 Limerick Klassman (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler McMahons Builders Providers Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)19f · Good · 16 ran 2nd 10/1
22 May 25 Limerick Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Munster Drilling Beginners Chase22.5f · Good · 6 ran PU 15/2
13 May 25 Sligo Cosmo Renfro (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan Kevin Egan Cars Peugeot Citreon Handicap Hurdle26f · Good · 12 ran PU 11/1
02 May 25 Punchestown Can Happen (IRE)J: Mr R W Barron Overlander Flat Race19f · Yielding · 22 ran 14th 80/1
02 May 25 Punchestown Go Mike Go (IRE)J: Mr Ian Cribbin Stanley Asphalt Hunters Chase For The Bishopscourt Cup20f · Yielding · 11 ran UR 100/1
30 Apr 25 Punchestown Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 25 ran 20th 50/1
25 Apr 25 Kilbeggan Klassman (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Mullingar Handicap Hurdle (0-100)24.5f · Yielding · 16 ran PU 12/1
14 Apr 25 Tramore Pipers Boreen (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Tramore Promenade Beginners Chase22f · Yielding · 13 ran 1st 8/1
11 Apr 25 Ballinrobe Klassman (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Sherry Fitzgerald Mayo Handicap Hurdle (0-100)21.5f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 13/2
08 Mar 25 Gowran Park Cosmo Renfro (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler BoyleSports Money Back On Every Race At Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle20f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 16/1
01 Mar 25 Navan Pipers Boreen (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley NavanRacecourse.ie Mares Handicap Chase20.5f · Heavy · 7 ran UR 7/2J
24 Feb 25 Punchestown Cosmo Renfro (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Book Your Group Deal Today Handicap Hurdle25f · Heavy · 12 ran 5th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Shane Nolan's strike rate?
Shane Nolan has won 9 of 206 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Shane Nolan?
Shane Fitzgerald, with 57 runners since 2022 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (7%).
What is Shane Nolan's Fair A/E?
0.74, from 206 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).