What is Shane Nolan's strike rate?

Shane Nolan has won 44 of 808 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Shane Nolan do best at?

Limerick by strike rate: 4 wins from 32 runners (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Shane Nolan?

Patrick Corbett, with 83 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (7.2%).

What is Shane Nolan's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 807 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Shane Nolan

808 runners in the lifetime window · 81 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Aug 2025

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

44–808

Wins / Runs

5.4%

Strike rate

n=808

166 (21%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=807 · 0.78 incl. margin

−327.50

£1 level stake

n=808 at SP · −40.5%

£641k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 9% (45 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 808 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Patrick Corbett: 7.2% from 83

The read

The record is strongest at Limerick (12.5%, n=32), clear of the yard's 5.4% baseline. It is weakest at Gowran Park (0% over 32 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a positive signal at 8.9% (n=45, Fair A/E 3.16), but new recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.42 and −93.00 to a £1 stake over 130 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Patrick Corbett rides 10% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.2%, A/E 1.19) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Standard (AW) going (10.1%, n=99). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 47 runners, 5.4pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse (Jan 2020, £59,000). The stable star of the record: Charlie Stout (IRE) — 6 wins from 62 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

1.5%−3.9

n=130 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −93.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−5.4

n=30 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −30.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−5.4

n=51 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −51.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.9%+3.5

n=45 · A/E 3.16 · £1 +29.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

3.1%−2.3

n=32 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −21.00

When favourite

12.5%

n=24 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −12.75

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.6%−0.8

n=371 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −184.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

3.8%−1.6

n=26 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −15.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Limerick 12.5% vs 5.4% · n=32

On Standard (AW) going 10.1% vs 5.4% · n=99

With debutants 0% vs 5.4% · n=51

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 5.4% · n=47

At Gowran Park 0% vs 5.4% · n=32

With new recruits 0% vs 5.4% · n=30

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 385 21 5.5% −185.75

Flat 251 14 5.6% −90.25

Chase 120 8 6.7% −25.50

NH Flat 52 1 1.9% −26.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 253 9 3.6% −169.00

Good 238 12 5% −101.25

Heavy 99 9 9.1% −21.75

Standard (AW) 99 10 10.1% +26.50

Good to Soft 85 2 2.4% −71.00

Good to Firm 34 2 5.9% +9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 97 9 9.3% +23.50

Punchestown 69 5 7.2% −36.00

Fairyhouse 68 4 5.9% −22.25

Navan 47 1 2.1% −30.00

Naas 46 2 4.3% −21.50

Ballinrobe 45 2 4.4% −27.50

Leopardstown 44 1 2.3% −31.00

Gowran Park 32 0 0% −32.00

Limerick 32 4 12.5% −7.50

Thurles 30 1 3.3% −26.50

Tramore 30 2 6.7% +13.00

Roscommon 29 2 6.9% −13.50

Bellewstown 29 0 0% −29.00

Kilbeggan 29 1 3.4% −18.00

Galway 29 1 3.4% −24.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 26 1 3.8% −15.00

Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 6 1 1 100% +4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 38 6 15.8% 0.82 −14.50

2nd–3rd fav 94 13 13.8% 1.07 −13.00

4th–6th fav 174 12 6.9% 0.95 −61.00

7th+ in betting 502 13 2.6% 1.03 −239.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Charlie Stout (IRE) 62 6 23 20 Aug 23

Youngnedofthehill (IRE)from S T Nolan 41 3 18 31 Mar 22

Guiding (IRE) 40 3 7 27 Oct 21

Sister Slew (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 37 3 8 7 Jul 17

Yulong Voice (GB)from Mrs John Harrington 30 2 7 7 Oct 24

Mister Beeton (IRE) 29 2 7 25 Aug 25

L'attesa (IRE)then Mark Gillard 29 3 4 28 Sep 17

Caolaneoin (IRE)from C A Murphy 27 2 4 26 Dec 17

Schoolboy Error (IRE)from Jamie Osborne 25 4 7 3 Jan 20

Lady L'lerom (IRE)from M C Grassick 23 0 6 5 Aug 22

Cosmo Renfro (IRE)then Gavin Cromwell 22 2 8 1 Jun 25

Footsteps At Dawn (IRE) 21 2 5 6 Dec 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 81 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gordon Elliott (3) and A J Martin (2); 39 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard; 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

768566456484

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderPatrick Corbett

10% of all rides
7.2% SR · A/E 1.19

RiderRWSR£1

Patrick Corbett 83 6 7.2% −35.75

Shane Fitzgerald 58 4 6.9% −32.50

Robbie Colgan 56 2 3.6% −26.00

Robbie Downey 41 3 7.3% −16.00

Conor Hoban 36 3 8.3% +11.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£641k

Prize money

2017

Best season · 7 wins

Charlie Stout (IRE) — Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A) Fairyhouse · Jan 2020 · Grade A

£59,000

Caolaneoin (IRE) — Panoramic Restaurant Handicap Chase Punchestown · May 2017

£15,375

Charlie Stout (IRE) — Arctic Tack Stud Veterans Handicap Chase Wexford · Mar 2023

£12,980

Notable horses

Charlie Stout (IRE) Schoolboy Error (IRE) Youngnedofthehill (IRE) Guiding (IRE) Sister Slew (IRE) L'attesa (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Spadoun (FR) 7.8% · 6–77

Progeny have won 12.2% of 1,144 runs since 2008 (70 horses).

King's Theatre (IRE) 7.4% · 5–68

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Mamool (IRE) 6.1% · 3–49

Progeny have won 12.6% of 604 runs since 2010 (61 horses). Strongest on Good going: 17.2% from 186. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8.6% from 105. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 17.6% from 165. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 8.6% from 139.

Kalanisi (IRE) 7% · 3–43

Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,749 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.

Most Improved (IRE) 7.5% · 3–40

Progeny have won 6.7% of 1,100 runs since 2017 (71 horses).

Kheleyf (USA) 8.1% · 3–37

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,548 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 808 · newest first

The latest 50 of 808 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 July 2012 to 25 August 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

25 Aug 25 Ballinrobe Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Corrib Oil Beginners Chase23.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 25/1

25 Aug 25 Ballinrobe Klassman (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler On-Course Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22.5f · Good · 11 ran 7th 8/1

22 Jul 25 Ballinrobe Klassman (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Sweeney Oil Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22f · Good · 15 ran 10th 12/1

05 Jul 25 Bellewstown Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Johnny's Race Day Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good · 15 ran 10th 25/1

05 Jul 25 Bellewstown Klassman (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20.5f · Good · 16 ran PU 5/1

09 Jun 25 Roscommon Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley www.roscommonracecourse.ie Beginners Chase25f · Good · 6 ran 4th 12/1

01 Jun 25 Kilbeggan Cosmo Renfro (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Joe Quinn Transport Longford Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Good · 14 ran PU 28/1

31 May 25 Tramore Pipers Boreen (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Tramore Handicap Chase22f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 5th 4/1J

29 May 25 Limerick Klassman (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler McMahons Builders Providers Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)19f · Good · 16 ran 2nd 10/1

22 May 25 Limerick Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Munster Drilling Beginners Chase22.5f · Good · 6 ran PU 15/2

13 May 25 Sligo Cosmo Renfro (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan Kevin Egan Cars Peugeot Citreon Handicap Hurdle26f · Good · 12 ran PU 11/1

02 May 25 Punchestown Can Happen (IRE)J: Mr R W Barron Overlander Flat Race19f · Yielding · 22 ran 14th 80/1

02 May 25 Punchestown Go Mike Go (IRE)J: Mr Ian Cribbin Stanley Asphalt Hunters Chase For The Bishopscourt Cup20f · Yielding · 11 ran UR 100/1

30 Apr 25 Punchestown Mister Beeton (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 25 ran 20th 50/1

25 Apr 25 Kilbeggan Klassman (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Mullingar Handicap Hurdle (0-100)24.5f · Yielding · 16 ran PU 12/1

14 Apr 25 Tramore Pipers Boreen (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Tramore Promenade Beginners Chase22f · Yielding · 13 ran 1st 8/1

11 Apr 25 Ballinrobe Klassman (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Sherry Fitzgerald Mayo Handicap Hurdle (0-100)21.5f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 13/2

08 Mar 25 Gowran Park Cosmo Renfro (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler BoyleSports Money Back On Every Race At Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle20f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 16/1

01 Mar 25 Navan Pipers Boreen (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley NavanRacecourse.ie Mares Handicap Chase20.5f · Heavy · 7 ran UR 7/2J

24 Feb 25 Punchestown Cosmo Renfro (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Book Your Group Deal Today Handicap Hurdle25f · Heavy · 12 ran 5th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Shane Nolan's strike rate?: Shane Nolan has won 44 of 808 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Shane Nolan do best at?: Limerick by strike rate: 4 wins from 32 runners (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Shane Nolan?: Patrick Corbett, with 83 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (7.2%).
What is Shane Nolan's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 807 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.