1:57 Listowel
The 1:57 at Listowel is a 2m0f Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle on yielding ground with a field of 18. A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of multiple habitual front-runners, which could lead to a late collapse and create opportunities for hold-up performers. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but open-looking contest, with The Besty Woman heading the figures on 56, closely followed by Al Arrivee on 51 and Sea Limit and Lennon Grove both on 50.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong and potentially testing, with the early fractions likely to be keen. Moja Dama and Unquite Dreams are the types to take the race along or race prominently, while the bulk of the field including the top three in the KTB Fit Scores are hold-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether the strong pace will cause the leaders to fold late, thereby playing into the hands of those coming from the rear as the race develops.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1The Besty Woman KTB Selection56/100
The Besty Woman arrives having won last time out after two placed efforts and now looks to build on that at the same trip where she holds a record of one win from four starts. She is held up in her races, usually producing her effort late, and has been competitive on yielding ground without winning on it. Henry de Bromhead has a 15% strike rate at Listowel from 276 runs while Darragh O'Keeffe has a 9% strike rate from 173 rides at the track. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 16% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.84. With still plenty to learn about her from a small overall sample she is the KTB Selection.
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2Al Arrivee51/100
Al Arrivee comes into this in strong recent order having recorded two wins from his last three starts. He drops back to 2m having won at the trip earlier in his career, though his most recent effort came over 2m6f. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. W P Mullins has a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 765 runs while Mr P W Mullins has a 29% strike rate from 112 rides at the track. The yard shows a 33% strike rate with the jockey overall with an A/E of 0.92. He has been placed on yielding ground without winning on it and remains an interesting contender.
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3Sea Limit50/100
Sea Limit has shown very little in two completed starts this year, finishing ninth on both occasions. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Listowel from 222 runs while the 5 lb claimer is yet to register a winner here either. He is dropping back to 2m which poses a fresh question for this lightly-raced sort. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 4% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.72. With so little evidence to go on the overall picture remains unclear on yielding ground where he is unproven.
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4Lennon Grove50/100
Lennon Grove has shown steady progress in five starts and has finished placed on three of his last four outings. He drops back to a trip he has won at already though his only run here ended with a modest fifth. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. Gavin Cromwell has a 10% strike rate at Listowel from 212 runs while Keith Donoghue has a 10% strike rate from 69 rides at the track. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 14% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.80. He is unproven on yielding ground.
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5Messonghi49/100
Messonghi has shown little in two starts so far, falling on debut and then finishing ninth last time. The drop back to 2m is a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge at the trip previously. P J Rothwell has a modest 6% strike rate at Listowel from 225 runs while the jockey has an 8% strike rate from 12 rides at the track. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 7% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.76. He is unproven on yielding ground and remains a modest prospect on the evidence so far.
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6Moja Dama49/100
Moja Dama has shown ability with a win and a placing from her first two starts before a poor run last time, though the small sample means her level is hard to pin down. She has already won on yielding ground and was placed over this trip on her debut, so the return to 2m looks a sensible move. She tends to make the running or race on the pace. Mullins has a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 765 runs while Townend has a 23% strike rate from 249 rides at the track.
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7Super Freak46/100
Super Freak has shown very little in three completed starts since a modest bumper debut, finishing well beaten on each occasion. Dropping back to 2m is probably no bad thing after his latest effort over 2m3f but he remains a fairly modest prospect on what he has produced so far. He typically settles in midfield. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Listowel from 206 runs and he is unproven on yielding ground.
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8Certosa46/100
Certosa is a useful performer who has shown steady placed form this year but lacks a win in nine starts. He drops back to 2m having been placed at the trip before while the yard has a modest 0-from-13 record at Listowel. He has handled yielding ground in the past though without placing and is usually held up.
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9Maximum Bonus45/100
Maximum Bonus is a debutant with a poor recent form string of PPP and no prior Flat or jumps runs in the last year. First-time headgear is applied. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Listowel from 19 runs and with low data confidence overall the pedigree offers the only real clues here.
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10Churchfield Annie45/100
Churchfield Annie has shown some ability with placed efforts at this trip on two of her three attempts, though she failed to complete when last seen over further. She drops back in distance today which looks a fair ask on balance and is usually held up. The Emmet Mullins yard posts an 8% strike rate from 37 runs at Listowel and she is unproven on yielding ground.
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11Unquite Dreams44/100
Unquite Dreams showed some promise when winning a maiden point on debut for this yard but has been well held in both starts under Rules. He drops back to 2m today having been beaten over slightly further last time, though he has already tried this trip twice without success. He tends to make the running or race on the pace. The yard has a 0% strike rate at Listowel from five runs and he is unproven on yielding ground.
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12Jetaway Annie42/100
Jetaway Annie is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and low data confidence overall. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate from 187 runs at Listowel. Pedigree and sales background will need to be strong to overcome the lack of any prior form.
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13Jennyfromtheblock41/100
Jennyfromtheblock showed useful placed form on her bumper debut before falling on her only hurdles start. She now steps up markedly in trip with very little racing behind her. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Listowel from 534 runs and she is unproven on yielding ground.
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14Breeze Of Tobruk41/100
Breeze Of Tobruk has shown very little in three starts to date and was pulled up on his most recent outing. He now drops back to 2m for the first time in first-time headgear while the yard's record at Listowel is too small a sample to judge. He is usually held up and has one run on yielding ground without placing.
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15Straightupsideways40/100
Straightupsideways has very limited racecourse evidence after just one completed start plus two falls. The drop back from 2m5½f to an untried 2m poses a fresh question while the small overall sample means his ability remains largely unknown. The trainer and jockey each have only one run at Listowel so their local record is too small to judge.
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16Theboss'sdaughter39/100
Theboss'sdaughter has only one run under her belt so the form picture is very thin. She drops back slightly in trip today which poses a fresh question. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 24 runs at Listowel.
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17Lil Soldier39/100
Lil Soldier is a 7-year-old debutant with no previous runs. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here and the data confidence is low as a result. The trainer has a 5% strike rate from 534 runs at Listowel.
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18Calamint39/100
Calamint arrives off the back of a modest fifth last time and is stepping up markedly in trip from 1m2f to 2m, a distance he has tried only once before without success. He has shown ability on yielding ground with a win and a placing from three runs but the yard's record at Listowel is poor at 4% from 28 runners. He is usually held up and this looks a stiff first task at the track.
KTB verdict
The Besty Woman is the KTB Selection. She arrives on the back of a last-time-out success following two placed efforts and holds solid placed form on yielding ground at this trip. Henry de Bromhead's 15% strike rate at Listowel from a sizeable sample adds to her appeal as a hold-up performer in a race where the strong pace could collapse late. Al Arrivee is the most obvious danger given his strong recent order and the powerful Mullins team behind him, while Lennon Grove's consistent placed form and Cromwell/Donoghue combination also demand respect.
KTB Selection The Besty Woman
This is the narrative read of the 1:57 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Moja Dama and Unquite Dreams both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are hold-up types?
The Besty Woman, Al Arrivee and Lennon Grove are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Listowel in this field?
W P Mullins has a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 765 runs.
On which ground has The Besty Woman been competitive without winning?
The Besty Woman has been placed on both starts on yielding ground.
Which horse is making its racecourse debut in first-time headgear?
Maximum Bonus is a debutant with first-time headgear.
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