4:10 Ascot
This Class 2 handicap over six furlongs at Ascot on good ground features a competitive 18-runner field where the KTB Fit scores highlight a handful of useful performers capable of making an impact. The top-rated horse on KTB metrics is the selection Far Above Dream on 69, followed by Ray Mon Dough at 64, with the remainder of the principals clustered between 59 and 58. Overall the numbers point to a race that will be decided by tactical positioning and late finishing ability rather than blistering early pace.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape is expected to be steadily run and tactical, rewarding those who can be handy or produce their effort at the right moment from midfield. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace, though one prominent runner may try to take advantage of the lack of obvious front-runners. The key question is whether the selection can overcome his own held-up style in a race where being on the speed or well placed could prove decisive in a steadily-run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Far Above Dream KTB Selection69/100
Far Above Dream is a useful performer who has won five times over this trip and handles good ground well with four wins from seven starts. He ran a solid race when fourth here on his only visit to Ascot and arrives in reasonable form having shown a mix of placed efforts and wins this year. Trainer James Owen has an 8% strike rate at Ascot from 52 runs while Kieran Shoemark has a 9% strike rate from 252 rides at the track. The combination of trainer and jockey records gives an overall 10/32 (31%) strike rate with an A/E of 1.81 and +£44.94 LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 9, he carries an official rating of 101 and comes into the race with recent form figures of 114620.
-
2Ray Mon Dough64/100
Ray Mon Dough is a useful performer who has already won twice over this trip from six attempts and arrives in solid recent form. Drawn widest in a big field from stall 15 that will ask a question of him as a held-up type. Trainer Oliver Cole has a 14% strike rate at Ascot from a small but positive sample of seven runs while Hector Crouch has a 9% strike rate from 121 rides at the track. The trainer-jockey combination shows 3/19 (16%) with an A/E of 0.98 and +£1.87 LSP. Stepping up in class as a three-year-old with an official rating of 92 and recent form figures of 626184, he has placed once from two starts on good ground without winning.
-
3Badri59/100
Badri is a useful performer who has won once from six runs at Ascot and handles good ground well with three wins from ten attempts. He steps up to 6f today having last run over 5f yet owns a solid record at the trip with five wins from 31 starts. Recent form of 102302 shows he remains competitive at this level carrying an official rating of 99. Trainer Michael Herrington has an 8% strike rate at Ascot from 12 runs while Lewis Edmunds has a 6% strike rate from 69 rides at the track. The trainer-jockey partnership records 3/23 (13%) with an A/E of 0.99 and -£1.75 LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 10 as a nine-year-old.
-
4Bolo Neighs58/100
Bolo Neighs is a useful performer who has won over this trip in the past but is stepping back up from 5f today. He has solid course form with a win from four runs at Ascot and has handled good ground well with a win and two places from three starts. Trainer Ralph Beckett has an 8% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample of 460 runs while Rossa Ryan has a 10% strike rate from 249 rides at the track. The trainer-jockey combination shows 231/1106 (21%) with an A/E of 0.96 and -£23.97 LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a favourable draw of 5 as a four-year-old with an official rating of 92 and recent form figures of 189365.
-
5Pilu58/100
Pilu is a useful performer who has won four of his eight starts at this trip and looks well suited by today's distance again. He has already shown he acts on good ground with two wins from three starts and comes into this in decent nick after two recent victories. Trainer Roger Teal has a modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from 103 runs while Joe Leavy has an 8% strike rate from 39 rides at the track. The trainer-jockey partnership records 7/71 (10%) with an A/E of 0.83 and -£30.42 LSP. Stepping up in class as a three-year-old with an official rating of 91 and recent form figures of 625811, he is usually held up and produces his effort late from draw 8 on his first run at the course.
-
6Annaf57/100
Annaf is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from seven runs and has placed form on good ground. Steps up to 6f today having last run over 5.5f yet holds a solid record at the trip with six wins from 36 starts; trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from 166 runs tempers expectations.
-
7Fandom54/100
Fandom is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this track with two placed efforts from four runs. He steps up from 5f to 6f today having won once at the trip from ten attempts while his record on good ground reads one win and two places from four starts; the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample is a negative.
-
8Wiltshire53/100
Wiltshire is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip. He has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts this year and was well held when he tried this track as an 8th on his only visit; the yard has a solid 13% strike rate here from a huge sample of runners.
-
9Purest Time53/100
Purest Time is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 30 attempts. He has run just once at Ascot, finishing ninth, and has placed once from six starts on good ground without winning; the yard holds a 9% strike rate from 403 runs here.
-
10Northcliff52/100
Northcliff is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 39 attempts. He has won twice from seven starts on good ground and arrives in decent form having finished placed on his last three outings; the trainer has a 9% strike rate from 144 runs at Ascot.
-
11Ironwill52/100
Ironwill is a fair performer who has been mixing it at this level and drops back to a trip he has won over. He has shown his best form on good ground with two placed efforts from four starts; the yard's modest record at Ascot is a concern from stall 11.
-
12Goldmoyne51/100
Goldmoyne is a useful performer who has been knocking on the door this season with a string of placed efforts. He has winning form at today's trip though his record on good ground is only modest; trainer's modest strike rate at Ascot is offset by a solid A/E figure.
-
13Orion's Belt51/100
Orion's Belt is a useful performer who has not really kicked on this year and arrives on the back of three poor efforts. Dropping back to 6f is at least a positive as he has placed at the trip in the past, though he was well held when tried here over 7f on his only previous visit to Ascot; trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement.
-
14Another Abbot49/100
Another Abbot is a useful performer who has shown plenty of speed at this trip, winning four times from 11 starts. Has run twice at Ascot without placing and his record on good ground is only modest with one win from five runs; Haggas maintains a 13 percent strike rate here from a huge sample while Marquand is aboard.
-
15Diligently49/100
Diligently is a fair performer who has won at this trip but has never won or placed in three runs at Ascot. He has shown competitive form on good ground without getting his head in front and the recent form of 481026 suggests he is inconsistent; trainer Clive Cox has a solid 10% strike rate at the track from a large sample.
-
16First Legion49/100
First Legion is a fair performer who has won once from two starts at Ascot. Drops back to 6f having last run over 7f and holds a solid record at today's trip with one win from eight attempts; trainer's modest 7% strike rate from 778 runs at the track is offset by the horse's own course success and consistent recent form.
-
17Intense Vision49/100
Intense Vision is a fair performer who has failed to build on an early promise and has finished out of the frame in his last three starts. He was well beaten on his only previous run at Ascot and the trainer has a poor record here; dropping back to an untried 6f poses a fresh question while the small sample on this going leaves suitability unknown.
-
18Yordan47/100
Yordan has won both starts at this trip and brings progressive recent form of 211 as a fair 3-year-old who remains lightly raced. The Kevin Ryan yard posts a 6% strike rate at Ascot from 388 runs while Kevin Stott takes the ride but the small overall sample means going suitability stays an open question.
KTB verdict
Far Above Dream stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer with five wins over the trip and a strong record on good ground, he showed he handles Ascot when finishing a solid fourth here on his only previous visit and arrives in reasonable order. The combination of trainer and jockey strike rates at the track adds further encouragement for a horse who can be produced late. His main dangers are likely to come from Ray Mon Dough, who brings solid recent form despite the wide draw, and the course-winning pair Badri and Bolo Neighs who both have solid claims on their Ascot records and going preferences. Pilu cannot be entirely dismissed either as he steps back up to a trip that suits after two recent wins.
KTB Selection Far Above Dream
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Far Above Dream | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Ray Mon Dough | 33/1 | Midnite |
| Badri | 20/1 | William Hill |
| Bolo Neighs | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Pilu | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Annaf | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Fandom | 18/1 | BetMGM |
| Wiltshire | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Purest Time | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Northcliff | 14/1 | William Hill |
| Ironwill | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Goldmoyne | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Orion's Belt | 40/1 | Midnite |
| Another Abbot | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Diligently | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| First Legion | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Intense Vision | 25/1 | 7Bet |
| Yordan | 8/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:10 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence so it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
What is Far Above Dream's record on good ground?
Far Above Dream has four wins from seven starts on good ground.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Ascot among the principals?
Ray Mon Dough's trainer has a 14% strike rate at Ascot from seven runs.
How many course wins does Badri have at Ascot?
Badri has won once from six runs at Ascot.
What is the recent form of the KTB Selection?
Far Above Dream has recent form figures of 114620.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies