4:40 Limerick
The 4:40 at Limerick is the Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div II), a 2m5f70y contest on yielding ground that attracts a field of 20. With most of the runners tending to race held up, the KTB numbers point to a race that could play into the hands of anything that can travel well off a strong pace. Inchidaly Copper tops the KTB Fit rankings on 66 and is the clear selection, while the next four principals are closely bunched between 62 and 54.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one clear front-runner will be allowed an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late. The bulk of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who will settle in rear or midfield and look to produce their effort from off the pace. This sets up a key question of whether any horse can bridge the gap to the clear leader in the straight on this yielding surface, or whether the uncontested lead will prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Inchidaly Copper KTB Selection66/100
Inchidaly Copper is a fair performer who has placed once in three runs at Limerick and holds solid claims on his best recent efforts. The 10-year-old drops back in trip today having last run over further but he has already won at this distance and boasts a good record on yielding ground with two wins from six starts. Trainer Alexander Ott has an above-average record at the track with an 11% strike rate and an A/E of 2.49 from nine runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he arrives off an OR of 88 with recent form figures of 83P074. The selection has the right profile to capitalise on the expected uncontested lead up front and the yielding conditions.
-
2Run For The Border62/100
Run For The Border is a useful performer who has won once from four starts at Limerick and arrives in solid recent form. The 6-year-old drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow at this distance on his only previous attempt, while the switch to yielding ground is an unknown as he has had no runs on it. Trainer John Patrick Ryan has a 7% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.86 from 279 runs, but this is offset by jockey Michael Kenneally's stronger 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.24 from 35 rides here. Typically settling in midfield, he carries an OR of 95 with recent form figures of 243026. His course win adds to his claims in a race where the pace may not be strong.
-
3Calzaghi59/100
Calzaghi is a useful performer who has failed to land a blow in five runs this season and finished a remote 11th when tried here before. Trainer E McNamara has a solid 10% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.85 from 1047 runs while the jockey is operating at 5% from 41 rides. The 6-year-old drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, adding an unknown element on yielding ground where he has placed twice from three starts without winning. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he runs off an OR of 98 with recent form figures of 98099. His lack of impact at the track and this season leaves him with questions to answer.
-
4Lincall57/100
Lincall is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He showed some encouragement when second at this trip range last time but his sole visit to Limerick ended in a pulled-up effort. The yard has no established record at this track while Keith Donoghue maintains a solid 11% strike rate from 184 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the 5-year-old runs off an OR of 100 with recent form figures of 5P-692. His placed effort last time keeps him in the mix on ability, though the track record is a concern in a race shaped by an uncontested lead.
-
5Cahirdown Boy54/100
Cahirdown Boy is a useful performer with solid course connections having won here from ten starts. He has been placed at today's trip without winning and steps up in distance from his latest 2m1f run. On the negative side he is 0 from 3 on yielding ground and his recent form has been patchy. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 11-year-old carries an OR of 96 with recent form figures of U5-FU3. Trainer E McNamara has a 10% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.85 from 1047 runs and jockey Sean Flanagan has a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.84 from 500 rides here. His course record gives him a foothold in the contest.
-
6Blackwater Soldier54/100
Blackwater Soldier is a fair sort who showed some spark when second at this trip last time out. He has a placed effort on his only previous run at Limerick but drops back from 2m7f today which asks a fresh question, while he is unproven on yielding ground. Trainer David Richard Barry holds a strong record here with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 3.14 from 14 runs.
-
7Ladiam52/100
Ladiam is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this season with a win and several placed efforts. Has run respectably without winning in both starts at Limerick and handles yielding ground well enough to be competitive, though he drops back in trip today. Trainer Norman Lee has a modest 3% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.52 from 121 runs and the jockey has a 0% strike rate from 14 rides here.
-
8Synchronize52/100
Synchronize is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. Has tried this trip for the first time today and his only run here resulted in an 11th-place finish. Trainer operates at a 6% strike rate from 65 runs at Limerick.
-
9Ardera Gun52/100
Ardera Gun is a fair performer who ran creditably when third at this trip last time after a string of lesser efforts. Steps up in trip again today having shown only modest form at 2m5f previously while his record on yielding ground is competitive but winless. Trainer strikes at 9% here from 201 runs while the jockey is slightly better at 11% from 131 rides.
-
10Sunrise Strider51/100
Sunrise Strider is a fair performer who has shown little in five runs so far and was well beaten when sixth on his only previous start here. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate from 200 runs at Limerick while the jockey is operating at 11% from 89 rides at the track.
-
11Loi Des Jeux51/100
Loi Des Jeux is a useful performer who showed improved form when winning a weaker race last time and has already placed over course and distance. Steps up in trip today having last run over 2m, which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both operate at a modest strike rate here.
-
12Set The Tone46/100
Set The Tone is a fair performer who has placed here before but was well beaten on his other visit to Limerick. Has failed to win or place in four runs at this trip and looks just as exposed on yielding ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
-
13Walk Away Harry45/100
Walk Away Harry is a useful performer on his day with a solid recent fourth at this track that fits the profile. He has shown ability on yielding ground and the drop back in trip could suit after his last run over further, though the yard and jockey are both without a winner from big samples at Limerick while the horse himself is 0-2 here.
-
14Tudorista45/100
Tudorista is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and recent efforts, showing his best when second at this trip range on his penultimate start. He steps up in distance today for the first time which asks a fresh question, while his sole run on yielding ground brought no reward. The trainer has only four runs at Limerick so the sample is too small to judge, though Sexton has a solid 13% strike rate from 162 rides here.
-
15Port Rashid45/100
Port Rashid is a 15-year-old modest performer who has been largely out of form in recent seasons. He has placed here once and shown some competitiveness on yielding ground, yet he steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at this distance. The trainer holds a modest 5% strike-rate at Limerick while the jockey has a solid 25% record at the track.
-
16Trackman Tommy44/100
Trackman Tommy is a fair sort who showed a bit of promise when winning a point last year and finishing fourth on his most recent hurdles start. He has been well beaten in all five runs at Limerick and steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in three previous attempts at this distance, while wearing first-time headgear and unproven on yielding ground. The yard and jockey both have modest records here.
-
17Whatyouwant40/100
Whatyouwant is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He has shown little at this track in two runs and drops back from 3m to a trip he has won at before. The yard has had too few runners here to judge while the jockey maintains a solid record at Limerick.
-
18Tantrum Boy38/100
Tantrum Boy is a fair performer who has shown his best this year when finishing second and fourth in similar races. He has already been tried over this trip without success and drops back from 2m6½f today while showing no win or place from two runs on yielding ground. The trainer has a modest 2% strike rate from 44 runs at Limerick and the horse could only manage eighth on his sole visit here.
-
19Likable Chancer37/100
Likable Chancer is a modest 12-year-old who has shown bits of form here without winning in nine runs at Limerick. He has a win on yielding ground from six attempts and has scored at today's trip in the past, though he drops back from 2m6½f on his latest start. The trainer remains winless from 54 runs at the track while the jockey's modest 4% strike-rate adds little encouragement. The only front-runner in the field, he could set the pace in a race with a lone leader shape.
-
20Middlethird Marvel37/100
Middlethird Marvel is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but arrives in poor form having been pulled up or well beaten on his last three starts. The yard has a 0% strike-rate from 16 runs at Limerick while the jockey operates at a 12% strike-rate from 100 rides here. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him.
KTB verdict
Inchidaly Copper is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with a placed effort from three runs at Limerick, he drops back to a trip he has won at before and boasts a strong record on yielding ground where he has two wins from six starts. Trainer Alexander Ott's above-average record at the track further strengthens the case, and in a race with an uncontested lead up front his held-up style could prove well suited if the leader comes back to the field. The main dangers are Run For The Border, who has a course win and solid recent form though the yielding ground is an unknown, and Calzaghi, who has placed on yielding but brings poor recent form and a remote effort at the track. Lincall and Cahirdown Boy complete the principals with each having shown ability at the trip or course, though both have their own question marks.
KTB Selection Inchidaly Copper
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Inchidaly Copper | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Run For The Border | 10/1 | BetTom |
| Calzaghi | 11/1 | BetTom |
| Lincall | 10/1 | BetTom |
| Cahirdown Boy | 12/1 | Coral |
| Blackwater Soldier | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Ladiam | 8/1 | Coral |
| Synchronize | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Ardera Gun | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Sunrise Strider | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Loi Des Jeux | 5/2 | Bet365 |
| Set The Tone | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Walk Away Harry | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Tudorista | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Port Rashid | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Trackman Tommy | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Whatyouwant | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Tantrum Boy | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Likable Chancer | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Middlethird Marvel | 66/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Limerick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Limerick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Limerick among the principals?
Inchidaly Copper's trainer Alexander Ott has an 11% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 2.49 from nine runs.
How does the expected pace shape affect the held-up runners?
With a lone leader likely to have an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back, the many held-up types in the field face the challenge of bridging the gap in the straight on yielding ground.
Which runner is the only front-runner in the field?
Likable Chancer tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the only front-runner, fitting the lone leader pace shape.
What is Cahirdown Boy's course record at Limerick?
Cahirdown Boy has won here from ten starts.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Trackman Tommy is wearing first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies