12:40 Aintree
This Class 3 conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle at Aintree over 3m0f149y on good to soft ground serves as a qualifier for the Challenger Stayers' Hurdle Series. A field of 13 runners lines up, with the KTB Fit scores highlighting a competitive but not overwhelming top end; Ile de Jersey heads the figures on 71 while the next four principals sit between 57 and 66. Several runners are dropping in class while others step up, and with no course form for the majority the race carries plenty of unknowns.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners including Molto Bene and Some Scope. Keable, Serious Chat, Walking On Air and Crack Ops are all likely to race prominently or handily, ensuring genuine gallop throughout. This shape could see the pace collapse late, which would play into the hands of hold-up horses such as Lihyan and Keep On Cobbling while those settled in midfield like Ile de Jersey and Brookside La may time their runs to advantage. The key question is which prominent runners can maintain their effort once the tempo drops in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ile de Jersey KTB Selection71/100
Ile de Jersey is high-class on his best days and arrives off a solid official rating of 125. He has already won at this track from just two runs and holds a 1-from-2 record on good to soft ground. The yard's 14% strike rate at Aintree sits below their overall figure while the jockey has a 20% record here from ten rides. Dropping in class looks a positive and his recent form of 3216P- includes useful placed efforts. Settling typically in midfield should suit the expected strong pace, allowing him to be produced at the right moment. Overall he has the best blend of course experience and trip suitability among the principals.
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2Masked Dance66/100
Masked Dance is a smart performer who has already won over this course. He has a solid record on good to soft ground with two wins from nine starts and four places, and the trainer maintains a 32 percent strike rate here from 31 runs. Stepping up markedly in trip today remains an unknown, though his prominent run-style should ensure he is well placed early in what is expected to be a strong gallop. Recent form of 1226-5 shows consistency at a lower level before this class rise. The jockey's lack of success at Aintree from one previous ride is a minor concern but the horse's course record is a clear asset.
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3Brookside La66/100
Brookside La is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after a recent win and has already shown he can handle this trip. He is unproven at Aintree but the yard's 15% strike rate here from 366 runs sits in line with their overall record. Only placed once from two starts on good to soft so far, he remains competitive on the surface. Stepping up in class is the main query after his latest success. His mid-division run-style should see him benefit if the strong pace collapses late, with the conditional jockey adding value. Recent form of 4133-1 underlines his current wellbeing.
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4Keable59/100
Keable is a high-class performer on his best days with a solid official rating of 131 and recent form that includes two wins from his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance from three attempts while his placed record on good to soft shows he handles the ground from two places out of three starts. Trainer Philip Hobbs & Johnson White operate at a 17% strike rate at Aintree from 24 runs in line with their overall record while this is a first appearance here for the horse and the jockey. Racing prominently with high confidence fits the shape, though he must prove he can sustain his effort if the gallop is as strong as expected.
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5Molto Bene57/100
Molto Bene is a high-class performer who arrives in strong form with five straight placings and an official rating of 126. He steps up to 3m for the first time having been placed at the trip on his only previous try, while he also has two wins and five places from seven runs on good to soft. Trainer's 5% strike rate at Aintree is below his 14% elsewhere while the jockey has only one ride here so far. His front-running style makes him central to the expected strong pace, which could leave him vulnerable if it collapses in the straight. Dropping in class is in his favour and the recent form of 12222- confirms his consistency.
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6Lihyan56/100
Lihyan is a high-class performer on his day with a solid official rating of 126 and placed efforts on both previous visits to Aintree. He has two wins from seven starts at today's trip and two from twelve on good to soft ground, though his recent form of 17-460 shows inconsistency. The trainer is 0% from 22 runs at this track, in line with their record elsewhere, while the jockey has no recorded rides here. His held-up style could be ideally suited if the strong pace collapses.
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7Serious Chat54/100
Serious Chat is a high-class performer on his day with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placed efforts from his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance but has shown no win or place from two runs on good to soft ground. The trainer's 6% strike rate at Aintree from 452 runs sits below their 15% at other courses while this is the jockey's first ride at the track. Likely to race prominently, he will need to handle the ground better than before.
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8Some Scope53/100
Some Scope is a smart performer who arrives in solid form with two seconds from his last four completed starts. He has a good record on good to soft ground with three wins and four places from seven runs while his two wins from three starts at this trip are another positive. The trainer's 8% strike rate at Aintree is in line with their record elsewhere. As a front-runner he will help ensure the strong pace materialises.
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9Western Monkey52/100
Western Monkey is a high-class performer who made a winning start over hurdles and has already shown he handles this trip. He is 1 from 1 on good to soft ground which is a positive though the overall sample remains small. Trainer Harry Derham has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs at Aintree while jockey Calum Hogan has only one ride here so far. His prominent style is based on limited evidence.
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10Crack Ops52/100
Crack Ops is a smart 4-year-old with solid recent form including two wins this year and a career record that backs up an official rating of 108. He steps up in trip to 3m for the first time today having been competitive on good to soft in his only try on this ground. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Aintree from 57 runs in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey has a 17% strike rate from six rides here. Likely to race prominently.
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11Walking On Air48/100
Walking On Air is a high-class performer on his day but has been patchy of late with a pulled-up and two modest efforts this season. He has placed once from two runs at Aintree and showed a win and two places from nine starts on good to soft. Steps up in trip today having failed to win in two previous tries at this distance. His prominent run-style will see him involved early.
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12Azahara Palace47/100
Azahara Palace is a smart performer who arrives off a mixed bag of form including a win and a second this season. She has two wins from five starts on good to soft ground and steps up sharply in trip today having only tried three miles once before without success. Both trainer and jockey have too small a sample at Aintree to judge. She will settle in midfield.
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13Keep On Cobbling46/100
Keep On Cobbling is a useful performer who ran well when third on his latest start and holds a solid official rating. Trainer has an 8% strike rate at Aintree from 151 runs which sits below his overall figure while the jockey has no recorded rides here. Going form shows no win or place from three runs on good to soft and he drops back in trip today as a fresh question. His held-up style could suit if the pace collapses.
KTB verdict
Ile de Jersey stands out as the KTB Selection. He combines high-class ability on his best days with proven course success at Aintree and a record of one win from two starts on good to soft ground, while his mid-division run-style aligns well with the anticipated strong pace that may falter late. Dropping in class further strengthens his position and the jockey's 20% strike rate at the track adds confidence. The main dangers are Masked Dance, who boasts course-winning form and a strong trainer record here, and Brookside La, who arrives in good heart after a recent win and could time his midfield run effectively. Keable and Molto Bene also hold strong claims on ability but both carry questions over sustaining their prominent efforts or handling the exact demands of this race.
KTB Selection Ile de Jersey
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:03am, 25 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Ile de Jersey | 10/1 | 7Bet, 1:03am |
| Masked Dance | 16/1 | 7Bet, 1:03am |
| Brookside La | 5/2 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Keable | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Molto Bene | 8/1 | William Hill, 1:03am |
| Lihyan | 14/1 | 7Bet, 1:03am |
| Serious Chat | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Some Scope | 16/1 | Midnite, 1:03am |
| Western Monkey | 11/2 | Midnite, 1:03am |
| Crack Ops | 8/1 | Bet Victor, 1:03am |
| Walking On Air | 28/1 | Midnite, 1:03am |
| Azahara Palace | 18/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Keep On Cobbling | 9/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:40 Aintree. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Aintree racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Aintree results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Aintree racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over the course at Aintree?
Ile de Jersey has won here from two runs, Masked Dance has won here from four runs, and Lihyan has placed on both previous visits without winning.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses as well as those settled in midfield.
Which runners are stepping up in trip for this contest?
Masked Dance steps up markedly in trip, Keable steps up in trip, Molto Bene steps up to 3m for the first time, Serious Chat steps up in trip, Walking On Air steps up in trip, and Azahara Palace steps up sharply in trip.
Who are the habitual front-runners or prominent runners in the field?
Molto Bene tends to make the running, Some Scope tends to make the running, while Masked Dance, Keable, Serious Chat, Walking On Air and Crack Ops usually race handily or prominently.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Aintree in this race?
Mel Rowley has a 32% strike rate at Aintree from 31 runs, the highest of those with meaningful data.
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