12:45 Worcester
This Class 3 handicap chase at Worcester over 2m4f on good to soft ground features a competitive field of 14, several of whom hold high-class form on their best days. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Kings Champion, Onewaywest and The Dog Thief all rated in the low 70s, underlining the depth on offer. Stepping up in class is a theme for a few while others drop in grade, and with only limited course form on record for most the race promises to be an intriguing test.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given two or more habitual front-runners are present, including Onewaywest, Captain Bellamy and Some Scope. Several others, among them Kings Champion, The Dog Thief, Happy And Fine, Idalko Bihoue, Irandando Has, Broomfield Aderra, Mon Champion and High Tea, tend to race prominently or handily, which should ensure the tempo is genuine. This shape could cause the race to collapse late and therefore favours hold-up horses such as Saracen Beau, posing the key question of whether any prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the closers will be able to pick them off.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kings Champion KTB Selection74/100
Kings Champion is a high-class performer who has shown his ability with placed efforts on all three completed starts this year and already has a win at today's trip. He steps up in class now as a 6-year-old with recent form figures of /3123-. Olly Murphy's 22% strike rate at Worcester from 174 runs sits in line with his record elsewhere while Sean Bowen brings a 23% strike rate at the track from 466 rides. The half-brother to Gage De Reussite comes from a family where the dam has had four other runners including two winners. He is placed on all three starts on good to soft ground though remains unproven at the course itself. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is taken to put his placed form to good use in a race that may not be run to suit those up with the pace.
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2Onewaywest73/100
Onewaywest is a high-class performer on his best days boasting an official rating of 126 and recent form that includes a win and two placed efforts before a pulled-up finish. As a 7-year-old with figures of 1F20P- he drops back to a trip where he has won once from six attempts, though his last run came over further. He has been placed on all three starts on good to soft ground and has been placed once from one run at Worcester. Ben Pauling's 18% strike rate at the track from 197 runs is in line with his record elsewhere while Elliott England brings a 33% strike rate here from only three rides. Usually making the running or racing on the pace, he could set a strong gallop but will need to see it out in a race where the pace is expected to be demanding.
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3The Dog Thief72/100
The Dog Thief is high-class and brings strong recent form having won three of his last four starts with figures of 1211-. As a lightly-raced 6-year-old he has won both at today's trip and on this going, though his overall career remains lightly raced with only three runs in the last year. Tom Ellis operates at a 12% strike rate at Worcester from 25 runs which is in line with his record elsewhere while Jack Andrews has a 20% strike rate here from 30 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is well equipped to handle the strong pace anticipated. With no course form on record he represents an interesting contender stepping into this higher grade.
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4Clodders Dream67/100
Clodders Dream is a high-class performer on his best days but arrives on the back of four pulled-ups and a fall from his last five starts with figures of FPPP0-. As an 8-year-old he drops back to a trip he has won at before while the trainer's 9% strike rate at Worcester from 22 runs is in line with his record elsewhere. He is unproven on good to soft ground and makes his first appearance here. Typically settling in midfield, he may benefit if the race collapses late given the strong pace expected. The booking of Freddie Mitchell, who has a 22% strike rate at the track from 18 rides, offers some encouragement.
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5Saracen Beau67/100
Saracen Beau is a high-class performer who arrives off the back of a recent pull-up but boasts strong recent form of 231 before that with figures of /231-P. As a 7-year-old he has won twice from three starts on good to soft ground and has been placed at today's trip. Dan Skelton's 18% strike rate at Worcester from 441 runs is in line with their record elsewhere while Kielan Woods has an 18% strike rate at the track from 238 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally suited to the likely strong pace that could see the race collapse. With no course form on record this hold-up style could prove advantageous.
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6Happy And Fine62/100
Happy And Fine is a high-class performer who arrives off the back of some mixed recent form but boasts a solid official rating of 120 with figures of 1UPU4-. Stepping up in class as a 9-year-old, he drops back to a trip where he has won four times from 14 starts. The yard has a 16% strike rate at Worcester from 130 runs, above their record at other tracks, while Bryan Carver also knows the place well. He is 2-9 on good to soft ground and usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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7Idalko Bihoue60/100
Idalko Bihoue is a high-class performer who won on his only previous start at Worcester. Dropping in class as an 8-year-old with figures of 65858/, he drops back from 3m to a trip he has won at twice from eight attempts though his record on good to soft is modest with no win or place from two starts. The yard's 21% strike rate at the track from 39 runs is in line with their record elsewhere while he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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8Irandando Has58/100
Irandando Has is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of two wins from four completed starts and an official rating of 124 with figures of /121P-. Dropping in class as a 7-year-old, he has won both starts on good to soft ground and is a half-brother to a Grade 3 winner. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 23 runs at Worcester which is in line with their 6% at other courses while the trip is a fresh question today and he usually races handily.
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9Captain Bellamy57/100
Captain Bellamy is a high-class performer on his day with a solid official rating of 124 and consistent recent form shown by two seconds from his last four starts with figures of /5262-. As a 7-year-old he drops back in trip to 2m4f where he has won once from two starts though last time he ran over 2m6½f. The trainer records an 11% strike rate at Worcester from 108 runs which is in line with his record elsewhere while he tends to make the running or race on the pace and this is his first appearance here.
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10Broomfield Aderra49/100
Broomfield Aderra is a smart performer who won a 2m4f handicap here last year before finishing a creditable fifth in a stronger race on his latest visit to the track with figures of 1351-5. Stepping up in class as a 6-year-old, he has won on good to soft and is proven at today's trip. The trainer strikes at 18% at Worcester from 441 runs while the jockey is 0-5 at the course and he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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11The Burren Man49/100
The Burren Man is a smart performer who showed plenty when second on debut before finishing a remote 14th in a stronger race with figures of 2/14-. As a 5-year-old he drops back in trip today having already won at this distance and tries first-time headgear. The trainer records a 9% strike rate at Worcester from 11 runs and he typically settles in midfield while unproven on good to soft ground.
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12Mon Champion48/100
Mon Champion is a high-class performer who brings strong ratings and a solid recent record including a win at this trip with figures of 1F717-. Dropping in class as a 6-year-old, he steps up in distance today from 2m3½f having already won once over 2m4f from four attempts. The yard posts a 28% strike rate at Worcester from 394 runs which sits above their 23% at other tracks while this is the horse's first run here and he usually races handily.
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13Some Scope42/100
Some Scope is a high-class performer on his day with a solid official rating of 121 and recent form that includes two seconds with figures of 1022P-. As an 8-year-old he has three wins from seven starts on good to soft ground and drops back in trip today from a stamina test last time. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Worcester from 24 runs in line with his record elsewhere while he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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14High Tea41/100
High Tea is a smart performer who showed useful form when winning over this trip last season with figures of 641F6-. As a 7-year-old he has a solid recent record at Worcester and steps back up in distance today having already won at 2m4f from just two attempts. The trainer's 5% strike rate at the track from 22 runs is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey has a 6% strike rate at Worcester from 139 rides and he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
KTB verdict
Kings Champion is the KTB Selection. He has shown his ability with placed efforts on all three completed starts this year, already has a win at today's trip, and steps up in class off an official rating of 124 as a lightly raced 6-year-old from a family that has produced winners. The combination of Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen at a track where both have solid records adds to the appeal, and his prominent run-style should see him well placed if the strong pace does indeed cause problems late on. The main dangers are Onewaywest, who could set the tempo on his best days from an official rating of 126, and The Dog Thief, who brings strong recent winning form and is proven at the trip and on the ground.
KTB Selection Kings Champion
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 1 Nov. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Kings Champion | 10/3 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Onewaywest | 16/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| The Dog Thief | 11/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Clodders Dream | 50/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Saracen Beau | 6/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Happy And Fine | 28/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Idalko Bihoue | 14/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Irandando Has | 28/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Captain Bellamy | 11/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Broomfield Aderra | 12/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| The Burren Man | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Mon Champion | 12/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Some Scope | 22/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| High Tea | 10/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:45 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at Worcester and stepping back in trip?
Idalko Bihoue won on his only previous start at Worcester and drops back from 3m to a trip he has won at twice from eight attempts.
Who is trying first-time headgear in this race?
The Burren Man tries first-time headgear having shown promise when second on debut before a remote 14th in a stronger race.
Which runners have family connections highlighted by KTB?
Kings Champion is a half-brother to Gage De Reussite with the dam having produced two winners from four other runners. Irandando Has is a half-brother to Grade 3 winner Irja Has with the dam having had seven other runners including two winners. The Burren Man is a half-brother to Mine's A Pint with the dam having had three other runners including two winners. High Tea's dam has had one other runner which was not a winner.
Who holds the strongest trainer strike rate at Worcester in this field?
Paul Nicholls has a 28% strike rate at Worcester from 394 runs with Mon Champion.
Which horse is unproven on good to soft ground?
Clodders Dream has no runs on good to soft while The Burren Man is also unproven on the ground.
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