What is Frederick Larson's strike rate?

Frederick Larson has won 89 of 891 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Frederick Larson do best at?

Nottingham by strike rate: 6 wins from 33 rides (18.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Frederick Larson ride most for?

Michael Appleby, with 475 rides since 2022 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 54 (11.4%).

What is Frederick Larson's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 888 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Frederick Larson

891 rides in the last 5 seasons · 406 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 364 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2022

89–891

Wins / Runs

10%

Strike rate

n=891

258 (29%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=888 · 0.82 incl. margin

−334.73

£1 level stake

n=891 at SP · −37.6%

£1.25m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 180 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (92 rides). Rides mostly for Michael Appleby — 53% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 891 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul 29.2% when favourite Michael Appleby: 11.4% from 475 First rides: 11.7% LTO winners: 14.1% Claiming: 10.4% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Nottingham (18.2%, n=33), clear of the rider's 10% baseline. It is weakest at Newcastle (AW) (4.1% over 49 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14.1% (n=92, Fair A/E 0.73), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.5% (n=92, Fair A/E 1.03). Michael Appleby supplies 53% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.4%, A/E 0.91). The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (15.2%, n=125). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 2.6% over 39 rides, 7.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 4: Fair A/E 0.45 across 155 rides (4.5% strike, −107.66 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The standout partner of the record: Mostallim (GB) — 5 wins from 20 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.7%+1.7

n=377 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −43.19

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14.1%+4.1

n=92 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −50.59

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.8%−2.2

n=116 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −16.00

When favourite

29.2%

n=89 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −21.17

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.4%+0.4

n=691 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −258.39

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.5%−3.5

n=92 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −35.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.0

n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With new recruits 17.9% vs 10% · n=39

At Nottingham 18.2% vs 10% · n=33

In Class 4 4.5% vs 10% · n=155

Over 1m5f – 2m 2.6% vs 10% · n=39

On Good to Firm going 15.2% vs 10% · n=125

At Newcastle (AW) 4.1% vs 10% · n=49

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 527 47 8.9% −270.87

Good to Firm 125 19 15.2% −2.81

Good 101 7 6.9% −53.67

Soft 67 8 11.9% −2.00

Good to Soft 53 7 13.2% +4.62

Heavy 17 1 5.9% −9.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 117 7 6% −75.36

Wolverhampton (AW) 113 14 12.4% −18.92

Chelmsford City (AW) 99 9 9.1% −59.24

Kempton (AW) 80 7 8.8% −50.00

Lingfield (AW) 69 8 11.6% −31.60

Newcastle (AW) 49 2 4.1% −35.75

Yarmouth 41 6 14.6% −5.19

Leicester 37 6 16.2% +18.25

Nottingham 33 6 18.2% +18.50

Doncaster 26 1 3.8% −18.00

Windsor 18 1 5.6% −12.50

Ascot 17 0 0% −17.00

Chepstow 15 1 6.7% −8.00

Catterick 15 5 33.3% +15.25

York 14 2 14.3% +18.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 335 35 10.4% −124.44

Class 5 272 35 12.9% −73.13

Class 4 155 7 4.5% −107.66

Class 3 63 8 12.7% −21.00

Class 2 60 4 6.7% −2.50

Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 104 26 25% 0.86 −36.17

2nd–3rd fav 177 30 16.9% 0.99 −33.56

4th–6th fav 276 28 10.1% 1.23 −20.00

7th+ in betting 334 5 1.5% 0.48 −245.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Billyjoh (GB) 17 3 10 12 Jul 25

Plastic Paddy (GB) 12 2 5 6 Apr 23

Starsong (IRE) 11 1 5 21 Aug 25

Baldomero (IRE) 11 1 6 12 May 25

Tyke (IRE) 11 2 3 17 Feb 25

Mehmo (IRE) 11 1 3 13 Nov 24

Mostallim (GB) 11 3 7 14 Sep 23

George Morland (GB) 10 2 3 27 Aug 23

Crimson King (IRE) 10 1 3 3 Jun 23

Juan Les Pins (GB) 8 1 1 6 Sep 25

Gypsy Nation (IRE) 8 0 0 15 Aug 25

Squeezebox (IRE) 8 3 5 3 May 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 406 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

9119111018141011548

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMichael Appleby

53% of all rides
11.4% SR · A/E 0.91

TrainerRWSR£1

Michael Appleby 475 54 11.4% −165.79

Amy Murphy 117 10 8.5% −25.77

Roger Teal 33 5 15.2% −4.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

105

Archived wins

£1.38m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 36 wins

Pride Of America (FR) — John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Jul 2023 · Class 2

£103,080

Miss Cantik (FR) — Madri Excepcional King Richard III Cup Handicap Leicester · Apr 2024 · Class 2

£25,770

Painters Palette (IRE) — William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Racing League Race 33 Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Sep 2023 · Class 3

£25,770

Notable horses

Mostallim (GB) Mehmo (IRE) Billyjoh (GB) Squeezebox (IRE) Crimson King (IRE) Thrave (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mayson (GB) 17.5% · 7–40

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,368 runs since 2008 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 1,729. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Equiano (FR) 13.8% · 4–29

Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,539 runs since 2008 (549 horses).

Bated Breath (GB) 14.8% · 4–27

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,133 runs since 2008 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.7% from 846.

Mehmas (IRE) 4.8% · 1–21

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,114 runs since 2008 (747 horses).

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 4.8% · 1–21

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,152 runs since 2008 (660 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.5% from 1,190.

Kodiac (GB) 15% · 3–20

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,541 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,060 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,060 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 December 2020 to 23 October 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

23 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Poke The Bear (IRE)T: Hayley Burton Betfair Safer Gambling Tools HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 33/1

23 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Bluebells Boy (GB)T: Hayley Burton Betfair Exchange Beacons HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 12/1

23 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Rosieisme Darling (GB)T: Hayley Burton Flutter Proudly Supporting Pancreatic Cancer UK EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 300/1

20 Oct 25 Pontefract Marseillan (IRE)T: Lemos De Souza Happy 60th Birthday Jane Phillips Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 7/2

14 Oct 25 Leicester Rosieisme Darling (GB)T: Hayley Burton British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 8 ran 7th 150/1

11 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Bondi Man (GB)T: Sarah Hollinshead Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 18/1

10 Oct 25 Kempton (AW) My Boy Harry (GB)T: Jim & Suzi Best Unibet Supports Safer Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 1st 10/3

07 Oct 25 Leicester Onwardupward (GB)T: Lemos De Souza Leicester Racecourse Ideal Self-Hire Wedding Venue NurseryClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 8th 66/1

04 Oct 25 Newmarket Come On Eibhlin (IRE)T: Dylan Cunha 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race)Class 2 · 7f · Good · 26 ran 24th 80/1

02 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Rosieisme Darling (GB)T: Hayley Burton Betfair Racing Podcasts Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 250/1

18 Sep 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Onwardupward (GB)T: Lemos De Souza Betfair EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 66/1

18 Sep 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Marseillan (IRE)T: Lemos De Souza Betfair EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 20/1

06 Sep 25 Thirsk Way To Dubai (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Moody Construction HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good · 15 ran 9th 22/1

06 Sep 25 Thirsk Juan Les Pins (GB)T: Michael Appleby Rudding Park HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 9th 14/1

04 Sep 25 Lingfield (AW) Blenheim Lad (IRE)T: Camilla Poulton At The Races App Expert Tips HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 33/1

26 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Onwardupward (GB)T: Lemos De Souza Play At The Races Stableduel Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 25/1

21 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Blenheim Lad (IRE)T: Camilla Poulton Grange Travel Coach And Horses HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 9/1

21 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Starsong (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Get Raceday Ready Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 5/1

19 Aug 25 Brighton Trouser Pocket (GB)T: Lemos De Souza Streamline Always Leading The Way NurseryClass 6 · 5.5f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 4th 10/1

15 Aug 25 Yarmouth Star Of St Louis (FR)T: Wayne Lukas QuinnBet Classified StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 5th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Frederick Larson's strike rate?: Frederick Larson has won 89 of 891 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Frederick Larson do best at?: Nottingham by strike rate: 6 wins from 33 rides (18.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Frederick Larson ride most for?: Michael Appleby, with 475 rides since 2022 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 54 (11.4%).
What is Frederick Larson's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 888 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.