What is Frederick Larson's strike rate?

Frederick Larson has won 105 of 1,060 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.9% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Frederick Larson do best at?

Nottingham by strike rate: 8 wins from 48 rides (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Frederick Larson ride most for?

Michael Appleby, with 615 rides since 2008 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 69 (11.2%).

What is Frederick Larson's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 1,055 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Frederick Larson

1,060 rides in the lifetime window · 465 individual horses

As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2025 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

105–1,060

Wins / Runs

9.9%

Strike rate

n=1,060

300 (28%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=1,055 · 0.82 incl. margin

−371.90

£1 level stake

n=1,060 at SP · −35.1%

£1.38m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (114 rides). Rides mostly for Michael Appleby — 58% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,060 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul 27.2% when favourite Michael Appleby: 11.2% from 615 First rides: 11.2% LTO winners: 14% Claiming: 10.2% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Nottingham (16.7%, n=48), clear of the rider's 9.9% baseline. It is weakest at Newcastle (AW) (3% over 66 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14% (n=114, Fair A/E 0.74), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.5% (n=110, Fair A/E 0.92). Michael Appleby supplies 58% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.2%, A/E 0.93). The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (14.6%, n=151). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 3.4% over 58 rides, 6.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 4: Fair A/E 0.55 across 181 rides (5.5% strike, −110.83 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The standout partner of the record: Mostallim (GB) — 5 wins from 20 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.2%+1.3

n=465 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −71.19

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14%+4.1

n=114 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −59.59

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.4%−2.5

n=135 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −22.00

When favourite

27.2%

n=103 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −29.17

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.2%+0.3

n=856 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −304.56

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.5%−4.4

n=110 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −53.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.9

n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With new recruits 18.2% vs 9.9% · n=44

At Newcastle (AW) 3% vs 9.9% · n=66

Over 1m5f – 2m 3.4% vs 9.9% · n=58

At Nottingham 16.7% vs 9.9% · n=48

On Good to Firm going 14.6% vs 9.9% · n=151

In Class 4 5.5% vs 9.9% · n=181

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 80.2% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 631 55 8.7% −307.54

Good to Firm 151 22 14.6% −2.31

Good 117 9 7.7% −56.17

Soft 79 9 11.4% −8.50

Good to Soft 63 8 12.7% +0.62

Heavy 18 2 11.1% +3.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 149 10 6.7% −89.03

Wolverhampton (AW) 135 17 12.6% −20.42

Chelmsford City (AW) 115 11 9.6% −46.74

Kempton (AW) 92 7 7.6% −62.00

Lingfield (AW) 74 8 10.8% −36.60

Newcastle (AW) 66 2 3% −52.75

Yarmouth 49 6 12.2% −13.19

Nottingham 48 8 16.7% +25.50

Leicester 40 6 15% +15.25

Doncaster 34 2 5.9% −19.00

Catterick 19 6 31.6% +18.75

Windsor 19 1 5.3% −13.50

Brighton 18 4 22.2% +0.83

Ascot 17 0 0% −17.00

Chepstow 17 1 5.9% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 410 40 9.8% −146.94

Class 5 327 40 12.2% −84.63

Class 4 181 10 5.5% −110.83

Class 3 72 9 12.5% −23.50

Class 2 64 6 9.4% +0.00

Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 123 30 24.4% 0.85 −38.17

2nd–3rd fav 208 33 15.9% 0.93 −50.23

4th–6th fav 328 36 11% 1.34 +2.50

7th+ in betting 401 6 1.5% 0.48 −286.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mostallim (GB) 20 5 12 14 Sep 23

Billyjoh (GB) 17 3 10 12 Jul 25

Mehmo (IRE) 17 3 6 13 Nov 24

Crimson King (IRE) 17 2 5 3 Jun 23

Thrave (GB) 16 2 4 3 Jul 23

Plastic Paddy (GB) 13 2 6 6 Apr 23

Starsong (IRE) 11 1 5 21 Aug 25

Baldomero (IRE) 11 1 6 12 May 25

Tyke (IRE) 11 2 3 17 Feb 25

George Morland (GB) 10 2 3 27 Aug 23

Juan Les Pins (GB) 8 1 1 6 Sep 25

Gypsy Nation (IRE) 8 0 0 15 Aug 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 465 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

8108910171310117312

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMichael Appleby

58% of all rides
11.2% SR · A/E 0.93

TrainerRWSR£1

Michael Appleby 615 69 11.2% −186.96

Amy Murphy 117 10 8.5% −25.77

Roger Teal 33 5 15.2% −4.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

105

Archived wins

£1.38m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 36 wins

Pride Of America (FR) — John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Jul 2023 · Class 2

£103,080

Miss Cantik (FR) — Madri Excepcional King Richard III Cup Handicap Leicester · Apr 2024 · Class 2

£25,770

Painters Palette (IRE) — William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Racing League Race 33 Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Sep 2023 · Class 3

£25,770

Notable horses

Mostallim (GB) Mehmo (IRE) Billyjoh (GB) Squeezebox (IRE) Crimson King (IRE) Thrave (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bated Breath (GB) 17.5% · 7–40

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,177 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 855.

Mayson (GB) 17.5% · 7–40

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,394 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Equiano (FR) 12.9% · 4–31

Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,543 runs since 2014 (549 horses).

Mehmas (IRE) 10.3% · 3–29

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,233 runs since 2020 (754 horses).

Kingman (GB) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,532 runs since 2018 (779 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 122.

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 4.3% · 1–23

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,226 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,199.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,060 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,060 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 December 2020 to 23 October 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

23 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Poke The Bear (IRE)T: Hayley Burton Betfair Safer Gambling Tools HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 33/1

23 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Bluebells Boy (GB)T: Hayley Burton Betfair Exchange Beacons HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 12/1

23 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Rosieisme Darling (GB)T: Hayley Burton Flutter Proudly Supporting Pancreatic Cancer UK EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 300/1

20 Oct 25 Pontefract Marseillan (IRE)T: Lemos De Souza Happy 60th Birthday Jane Phillips Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 7/2

14 Oct 25 Leicester Rosieisme Darling (GB)T: Hayley Burton British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 8 ran 7th 150/1

11 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Bondi Man (GB)T: Sarah Hollinshead Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 18/1

10 Oct 25 Kempton (AW) My Boy Harry (GB)T: Jim & Suzi Best Unibet Supports Safer Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 1st 10/3

07 Oct 25 Leicester Onwardupward (GB)T: Lemos De Souza Leicester Racecourse Ideal Self-Hire Wedding Venue NurseryClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 8th 66/1

04 Oct 25 Newmarket Come On Eibhlin (IRE)T: Dylan Cunha 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race)Class 2 · 7f · Good · 26 ran 24th 80/1

02 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Rosieisme Darling (GB)T: Hayley Burton Betfair Racing Podcasts Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 250/1

18 Sep 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Onwardupward (GB)T: Lemos De Souza Betfair EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 66/1

18 Sep 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Marseillan (IRE)T: Lemos De Souza Betfair EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 20/1

06 Sep 25 Thirsk Way To Dubai (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Moody Construction HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good · 15 ran 9th 22/1

06 Sep 25 Thirsk Juan Les Pins (GB)T: Michael Appleby Rudding Park HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 9th 14/1

04 Sep 25 Lingfield (AW) Blenheim Lad (IRE)T: Camilla Poulton At The Races App Expert Tips HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 33/1

26 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Onwardupward (GB)T: Lemos De Souza Play At The Races Stableduel Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 25/1

21 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Blenheim Lad (IRE)T: Camilla Poulton Grange Travel Coach And Horses HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 9/1

21 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Starsong (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Get Raceday Ready Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 5/1

19 Aug 25 Brighton Trouser Pocket (GB)T: Lemos De Souza Streamline Always Leading The Way NurseryClass 6 · 5.5f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 4th 10/1

15 Aug 25 Yarmouth Star Of St Louis (FR)T: Wayne Lukas QuinnBet Classified StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 5th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Frederick Larson's strike rate?: Frederick Larson has won 105 of 1,060 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.9% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Frederick Larson do best at?: Nottingham by strike rate: 8 wins from 48 rides (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Frederick Larson ride most for?: Michael Appleby, with 615 rides since 2008 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 69 (11.2%).
What is Frederick Larson's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 1,055 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.