Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.07).
Deterministic profile computed from 100 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 2.6% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.60). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.68 across 71 runners (4.2% strike, −28.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Bar One Racing Ballyhack Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse (Dec 2012, £24,375). The stable star of the record: Lean And Keen (IRE) — 6 wins from 57 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.9%+0.9
n=29 · A/E 1.57 · £1 −5.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.0
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
0%
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.6%−3.4
n=39 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −24.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up2.6% vs 6% · n=39
In Flat races4.2% vs 6% · n=71 · A/E 0.68
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat7134.2%−28.00
Hurdle16318.8%+15.00
NH Flat1300%−13.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3925.1%−17.00
Good3226.3%−2.00
Heavy13215.4%+9.00
Good to Soft1000%−10.00
Standard (AW)500%−5.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Naas1000%−10.00
Curragh900%−9.00
Gowran Park900%−9.00
Cork8225%+22.00
Limerick8112.5%−1.00
Navan700%−7.00
Punchestown600%−6.00
Listowel6116.7%+3.00
Leopardstown6116.7%+9.00
Dundalk (AW)500%−5.00
Galway5120%+8.00
Killarney300%−3.00
Fairyhouse300%−3.00
Roscommon300%−3.00
Bellewstown200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite700%0.00−7.00
2nd–3rd fav1119.1%0.81−2.00
4th–6th fav2229.1%1.17+0.00
7th+ in betting6035%2.09−17.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m2613.8%−19.00
2m1f – 2m4f20210%+4.00
1m – 1m1f19210.5%+9.00
6f – 7f1700%−17.00
1m2f – 1m4f1417.1%+1.00
Under 6f300%−3.00
2m5f – 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222500%−25.00
20231317.7%+2.00
202420210%+4.00
20252627.7%−6.00
20261616.3%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6957.2%−10.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4137.3%−2.00
17+ runners2627.7%+2.00
11-13 runners2314.3%−16.00
8-10 runners700%−7.00
5-7 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 18 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 18 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mrs John Harrington (2); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard; 13 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
001700810080020
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Lead Kindly Light (IRE) — Bar One Racing Ballyhack Handicap Chase (grade B) Fairyhouse · Dec 2012 · Grade B
£24,375
Oilily (IRE) — Dolores Purcell Memorial Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) Tipperary · Oct 2010 · Grade 3
£18,525
Steel Park (IRE) — www.leopardstown.com Handicap Hurdle (0-140) Leopardstown · Mar 2012
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,449 runs since 2008 (300 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 729 · newest first
The latest 50 of 729 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 27 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Sean Byrne's strike rate?
Sean Byrne has won 6 of 100 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Sean Byrne's Fair A/E?
1.07, from 100 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Sean Byrne·SR 6%·A/E 1.07
KTB
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