Neil Brown
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 240 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04).
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.9% (n=51, Fair A/E 0.83). Rides in big fields of 14 or more are the standout value angle: 11.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.71 and +54.50 to a £1 stake over 140 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. David Barron supplied 28% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 0.85). The rider also read well in Class 4 (16.2%, n=99) and on Good to Soft going (14.5%, n=83). The record read poorly in Class 3 — 3.2% over 31 rides, 7.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good going: Fair A/E 0.71 across 123 rides (6.5% strike, −42.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the rider fired May–Jul.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 713 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 713 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 25 January 2005 to 7 November 2009.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Neil Brown's strike rate?
- Neil Brown has won 50 of 475 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Neil Brown do best at?
- Redcar by strike rate: 7 wins from 55 rides (12.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Neil Brown ride most for?
- David Barron, with 135 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (9.6%).
- What is Neil Brown's Fair A/E?
- 1.04, from 473 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.