Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 5.9%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.6
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.6
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.6
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.9%+3.3
n=34 · A/E 1.69 · £1 +18.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking6.1% vs 2.6% · n=33
With claiming riders up5.9% vs 2.6% · n=34
On Standard (AW) going3.3% vs 2.6% · n=61 · A/E 0.73
In Class 62.9% vs 2.6% · n=70 · A/E 0.60
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)6123.3%−9.00
Good to Firm900%−9.00
Good to Soft200%−2.00
Good200%−2.00
Firm100%−1.00
Soft100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)3412.9%+7.00
Wolverhampton (AW)1218.3%−1.00
Southwell (AW)800%−8.00
Chelmsford City (AW)700%−7.00
Yarmouth400%−4.00
Lingfield400%−4.00
Brighton300%−3.00
Bath100%−1.00
Windsor100%−1.00
Newmarket100%−1.00
Leicester100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 67022.9%−18.00
Class 5500%−5.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav400%0.00−4.00
4th–6th fav2015%0.73−9.00
7th+ in betting5211.9%0.69−11.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f2500%−25.00
1m – 1m1f2414.2%+17.00
6f – 7f2314.3%−12.00
Under 6f400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2024600%−6.00
20253126.5%+21.00
20263900%−39.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6311.6%−22.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3825.3%+14.00
11-13 runners2800%−28.00
5-7 runners600%−6.00
14-16 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 14 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 14 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John E Long (5).
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0090000140000
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,533 runs since 2008 (415 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.3% from 408.
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,711 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 641. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 76 · newest first
The latest 50 of 76 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 October 2024 to 15 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Stephanie Cassidy's strike rate?
Stephanie Cassidy has won 2 of 76 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.6% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Stephanie Cassidy do best at?
Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 34 runners (2.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Stephanie Cassidy in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Stephanie Cassidy's Fair A/E?
0.57, from 76 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Stephanie Cassidy·SR 2.6%·A/E 0.57
KTB
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