Theodore Ladd
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 70 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). When claiming the record reads 12% (81 rides). Rides mostly for Michael Appleby — 73% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Southwell (AW) (13%, n=46), clear of the rider's 9% baseline. Claiming rides have been a positive signal at 12.3% (n=81, Fair A/E 1.22), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.5% (n=55, Fair A/E 0.65). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 10.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.66 and +7.98 to a £1 stake over 107 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Michael Appleby supplies 73% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.8%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 31-60-day break (19.2%, n=52) and over 6f – 7f (12.2%, n=131). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 2.3% over 44 rides, 6.7pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Eponina (IRE) — 5 wins from 33 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2016→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,306 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,306 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 21 October 2016 to 25 October 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Theodore Ladd's strike rate?
- Theodore Ladd has won 30 of 334 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Theodore Ladd do best at?
- Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 46 rides (13%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Theodore Ladd ride most for?
- Michael Appleby, with 244 rides since 2022 — 73% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (9.8%).
- What is Theodore Ladd's Fair A/E?
- 1.01, from 333 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.