1:55 Listowel
The McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle at Listowel brings together a field of 20 for this 2m0f contest on good ground. It is a race that lacks an obvious leader, with the majority of runners tending to be held up, setting a tactical scene where being handy could prove advantageous. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Tyson Fury on 62, with Omakase close behind on 60, indicating a competitive but open-looking maiden in which recent form and trainer/jockey course records will carry significant weight.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace is likely to be steady and tactical rather than truly strong. Most principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key will be how the race unfolds in the middle order and whether those positioned more prominently can steal an advantage. The shape therefore poses the question of whether a late closer can pick up enough in a steadily-run affair or whether one of the few with the ability to race handy will be better placed to strike.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tyson Fury KTB Selection62/100
Tyson Fury arrives with the highest KTB Fit rating of 62 and is the selection. A smart performer, he brings solid recent form that includes three seconds from his last five starts. He drops back to a trip he has won over before, though he has only one win from nine starts on good ground. The Denis Gerard Hogan yard posts a 6% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 0.61 from 195 runs, while Sean Flanagan is 7% from 223 rides here with an A/E of 0.75. Both trainer and jockey therefore have modest records at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the steadily-run race to unfold in his favour.
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2Omakase60/100
Omakase is rated just behind on a KTB Fit of 60. He returns from a long absence with a mixed record over the last year yet has shown ability on good ground, recording a win and two places from four starts. He has won at today's 2m trip in the past. The P G Fahey yard holds a 10% strike rate at Listowel from 29 runs with an A/E of 0.91, while the 7 lb claimer Cian Cullinan is 10% from 10 rides here with a strong A/E of 1.45. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains an interesting contender if the absence has not left its mark.
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3Down After Dark54/100
Down After Dark is rated 54 on KTB Fit but has shown very little so far, unseating and then finishing ninth in two starts. The S Curling yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Listowel from 28 runs with an A/E of 1.33. With only two career runs the sample is too small to judge trip or ground preference, and the horse has just one run on good ground with no win or place. Usually held up, though with limited evidence, he looks up against it on what he has shown to date.
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4Talking Tough54/100
Talking Tough, also on 54 KTB Fit, has been around a long time and remains competitive on good ground without winning, having been placed three times from 15 starts. He has shown little at this track in eight runs and is now stepping up markedly in trip from his latest 1m2f effort. The S M Duffy yard has a modest 8% strike rate at Listowel from 39 runs with an A/E of 1.64, while the 7 lb claimer Mr C G Ryan is 0% from just one ride here. Usually held up with high confidence, he brings course experience but limited encouragement overall.
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5Liath Mor50/100
Liath Mor is rated 50 on KTB Fit and is a debutant with no racecourse form, so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. Gavin Cromwell has a solid 11% strike rate at Listowel from 206 runs with an A/E of 0.93. By Sumbal, he comes from a sire with a 3% overall win rate from 87 runners. With no course win on record and low data confidence the picture remains tentative, though the yard's local record offers some hope.
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6Bud Fox48/100
Bud Fox is rated 48 on KTB Fit and has shown fair form in recent starts with a solid win at this trip from four attempts. Gavin Cromwell posts an 11% strike rate at Listowel from 206 runs and Keith Donoghue matches that figure from 66 rides here. With only six career runs he remains lightly raced and not fully exposed, though he has had no runs on good ground and is therefore unproven on the surface.
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7Kilmond Knight48/100
Kilmond Knight, rated 48, has shown very little in four starts with a recent sequence of P-U078. He drops back from 2m6½f to 2m today, which asks a fresh question at a trip where he has been beaten on his only previous attempt. The David Richard Barry yard is 0% from four runs at Listowel, though Alan O'Sullivan (5 lb claimer) holds a 14% strike rate here from 37 rides with an A/E of 1.54. He has had three runs on good with no win or place.
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8Thepoetslodge48/100
Thepoetslodge is rated 48 and has shown very little so far with two pulled-ups and a tailed-off effort from three starts. Dropping back to 2m raises a fresh question after failing to make any impact at that trip twice already. Gavin Cromwell and Kieren Buckley both have established but modest records at Listowel. He has had no runs on good ground and is therefore unproven on the surface.
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9Love Me Tender47/100
Love Me Tender, rated 47, is in the care of W P Mullins who has a solid 19% strike rate at Listowel from 754 runs, while Paul Townend is operating at 23% from 244 rides here. Very lightly raced with only two career starts, the form has to be treated with real caution. Stepping up to 2m for the first time asks a fresh question of a horse whose going suitability is also unknown on this small sample.
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10Midnight Reign46/100
Midnight Reign is a debutant with no racecourse experience and is rated 46. The Paul Nolan yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Listowel from 185 runs. By Berkshire, a sire with an 11% overall win rate from 474 runners, the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background given the low data confidence and lack of a course win.
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11Faerie Tales46/100
Faerie Tales, rated 46, has shown fair form in two recent runs finishing third and fourth and remains lightly raced after just six career starts. She drops back to 2m having been placed without winning at the trip last time. The P G Fahey yard holds a 10% strike rate from 29 runs at Listowel, though the 7 lb claimer Ben Kennedy has had too few rides here to judge. She has been placed once from five starts on good ground.
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12Jules Winfield46/100
Jules Winfield is rated 46 and is lightly raced with just three career starts and a modest recent form line of 1/29. He drops back to 2m today where he has been placed once without winning. The A J Martin yard holds an 11% strike rate at Listowel from 232 runs while Daniel King is 6% from 65 rides here. He has one win from two starts on good ground.
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13Born De Ceres46/100
Born De Ceres showed modest form when sixth on debut over 2m0½f and is rated 46. He now drops back slightly in trip with only one previous run in the book, so there is little to go on. The Paul John Gilligan yard records a 7% strike rate here from 75 runs while jockey Danny Gilligan has a 12% strike rate from 34 rides at the track. He has had no runs on good ground.
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14Euro Agent45/100
Euro Agent is rated 45 and is a useful performer who has been knocking on the door of late with two placed efforts from his last three starts. He drops back to 2m today after his most recent run over 2m2f and has yet to win at the trip in four attempts. Gordon Elliott has a solid 13% strike rate at Listowel from 325 runs while Jack Kennedy is 11% from 90 rides at the track. He has been placed both times on good ground.
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15Messire Des Bordes45/100
Messire Des Bordes, rated 45, has only two runs in the book and showed little in either of them. Gavin Cromwell holds a solid 11% strike rate at Listowel from 206 runs while the jockey is operating at a modest 4% here from 25 rides. Dropping back to an untried 2m trip asks a fresh question of a horse whose overall ability remains unclear on this small evidence. He has had no runs on good ground.
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16Thyer43/100
Thyer, rated 43, has shown enough on the Flat to suggest he can make a hurdler, with two wins and four places from nine starts on good ground. He steps up from 1m4f to an untested 2m today which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The Maurice Andrew Ahern yard has too few runs at Listowel to judge while Darragh O'Keeffe operates at a 9% strike rate here from 169 rides.
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17Magna Gee Gee43/100
Magna Gee Gee, rated 43, has a modest strike rate on good ground with one win and two places from seven runs. Stepping up to 2m for the first time since a single unsuccessful attempt at the trip looks a fresh question for a horse whose recent form is poor. The Patrick J Flynn yard's 6% strike rate from 325 runs at Listowel is well below average while the jockey's small-sample 5% record here offers little encouragement.
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18Kingston Silver42/100
Kingston Silver has shown little in two starts to date, finishing ninth then last, and is rated 42. The drop back to 2m poses a fresh question while the W J Lanigan yard has failed to land a winner from nine attempts at Listowel. Danny Mullins has a solid 10% strike rate from 202 rides here. He has had one run on good with no win or place.
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19Individualism39/100
Individualism, rated 39, has shown little spark in two recent runs and brings a modest overall profile from 22 starts. He has two wins from ten runs on good ground so that side should be fine while the drop back to 2m is at least familiar. The E McNamara yard's 5% strike rate from 527 runs at Listowel and the jockey's 4% from 23 rides here both point to limited expectations.
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20Approval39/100
Approval, also rated 39, has shown some ability on good ground with a placed effort from five starts and is dropping back to a trip where he has already placed once without winning. He was only fifth here on his sole visit to Listowel and his recent form of 053 suggests he is competitive but not quite finding the necessary edge. The E McNamara yard's modest 5% strike rate at the track from a large sample and the jockey's zero wins from 24 rides add further negatives.
KTB verdict
Tyson Fury is the KTB Selection. He brings the strongest recent form of the principals, including three seconds from his last five starts, and drops back to a trip he has won over before. Although his record on good ground is modest and both trainer and jockey have below-par records at Listowel, his class and consistency set the standard. The main dangers are Omakase, who returns from a long break with prior ability at the trip and on the ground, and the lightly raced types such as Bud Fox and Faerie Tales who retain scope for improvement. Euro Agent also enters calculations having been knocking on the door of late.
KTB Selection Tyson Fury
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 23 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tyson Fury | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Omakase | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Down After Dark | 125/1 | William Hill |
| Talking Tough | 125/1 | William Hill |
| Liath Mor | 60/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Bud Fox | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Kilmond Knight | 150/1 | William Hill |
| Thepoetslodge | 125/1 | William Hill |
| Love Me Tender | 8/15 | Bet365 |
| Midnight Reign | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Faerie Tales | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Jules Winfield | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Born De Ceres | 80/1 | William Hill |
| Euro Agent | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Messire Des Bordes | 125/1 | William Hill |
| Thyer | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| Magna Gee Gee | 125/1 | William Hill |
| Kingston Silver | 150/1 | William Hill |
| Individualism | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Approval | 8/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Tyson Fury the selection despite modest trainer and jockey records at Listowel?
He brings smart form with three seconds from his last five starts and drops back to a trip he has won over before, outweighing the 6% trainer and 7% jockey strike rates at the track.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay, as the majority of runners are held-up types who produce their effort late.
Which runners are stepping up or down in trip significantly?
Talking Tough steps up markedly from 1m2f, Thyer steps up from 1m4f, Love Me Tender steps up to 2m for the first time, and Kilmond Knight drops back from 2m6½f.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Listowel in this field?
W P Mullins has a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 754 runs, ahead of Gordon Elliott on 13% and Gavin Cromwell on 11%.
Which horses are unproven on good ground?
Bud Fox, Thepoetslodge, Love Me Tender, Born De Ceres, Messire Des Bordes and Midnight Reign (by pedigree only) have had no runs on good ground.
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