2:45 Chepstow
This Class 4 maiden hurdle at Chepstow over 2m3f100y on good to soft ground brings together a field of 13 with plenty of unknowns around trip, ground and overall ability. The KTB Fit ratings identify Great Dance as the clear top horse on 72 while the remainder of the field clusters between 54 and 40, underlining how much rests on how the principals handle the step up in distance. With only tentative pace on offer the race is likely to place a premium on stamina and the ability to produce a late effort.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. That's It Paddy is the one horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently though that assessment comes with low confidence. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether the race will be slowly enough run for those closing horses to pick up the pieces or whether the step up in trip simply exposes those with questionable stamina.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Great Dance KTB Selection72/100
Great Dance is a smart performer who showed useful form when placed on both starts this year and ran to a solid level when second at this track last time. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question but the pedigree and way he stays on suggest it will suit. The trainer has a 67% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 2.18 from a small sample of three runs while the jockey holds a respectable 14% strike rate at the track from 138 rides with an A/E of 1.08. Great Dance has one win from one run on good to soft and the yard's overall trainer-jockey combination reads 5/17 (29%) with an A/E of 1.32 and positive LSP of +£0.25. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he holds the highest KTB Fit rating of 72 and is the selection.
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2That's It Paddy54/100
That's It Paddy has shown little so far with a recent sequence of 4P-64 and only two runs in the last year. The drop back in trip to 2m3f today poses a fresh question. Trainer Grace Harris has a 9% strike rate at Chepstow from 456 runs with an A/E of 0.86 while jockey Joe Anderson is operating at a 20% strike rate from 44 rides here with an A/E of 1.76. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 16/83 (19%) with an A/E of 1.45 and strong LSP of +£62.75. He tends to make the running or race on the pace though that read comes with limited evidence and low confidence, and he remains unproven on good to soft ground. With a KTB Fit of 54 he is the second highest rated but has considerable questions to answer.
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3Stick To The Board53/100
Stick To The Board won here on debut over 2m in what looked a decent little race and clearly has ability. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. Paul Nicholls has a 23% strike rate at Chepstow from 1215 runs with an A/E of 0.92 while Sam Twiston-Davies records a 16% strike rate from 367 rides with an A/E of 0.85. The trainer and jockey combination reads 285/1268 (22%) with an A/E of 0.84. He has one win from one run on good to soft and has already shown course form with one win from one start at Chepstow. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence with low confidence, he comes into this with a KTB Fit of 53 while stepping up in class.
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4Coolnav51/100
Coolnav is lightly raced with just three career starts and a recent form line of 8P23-2 that offers little to go on. He steps up in trip today to 2m3f having last run over 2m1f so the new distance is an unknown. Trainer Jeremy Scott has an 11% strike rate at Chepstow from 214 runs with an A/E of 0.96 while jockey Rex Dingle matches that 11% strike rate from 82 rides with an A/E of 0.98. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 49/373 (13%) with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he is unproven on good to soft ground and holds a KTB Fit of 51.
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5Company Charge49/100
Company Charge has shown mixed form in three starts with a third at this track his best effort to date. The step up in trip is an unknown and the small sample means there is little else to go on. The yard has a solid 22% strike rate at Chepstow from 23 runs with an A/E of 1.1 while the claiming jockey is operating at a 13% strike rate here from 24 rides with an A/E of 0.61. The trainer and jockey combination reads 3/12 (25%) with an A/E of 0.92. Stepping up in class and unproven on good to soft ground, he comes into the race with a KTB Fit of 49.
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6Orchard County48/100
Orchard County is a debutant with very little public form to go on. The yard has a solid 22% strike rate at Chepstow from 23 runs with an A/E of 1.1 and the 3lb claimer is also operating at a respectable 18% strike rate from 22 rides with an A/E of 0.88. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 13/68 (19%) with an A/E of 1.10. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the bulk of the assessment given the low data confidence and he holds a KTB Fit of 48.
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7Saint Invictus46/100
Saint Invictus has shown fair placed form in two of his three starts but his overall small sample makes him hard to weigh up with confidence. The yard records a 5% strike rate from 21 runs at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.97 while Ellis Collier is operating at 3% from 29 rides here with an A/E of 0.41. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him, has been placed once from two runs on good to soft without winning, and holds a KTB Fit of 46 while stepping up in class.
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8Fromjago'stomilan45/100
Fromjago'stomilan showed promise when second on debut over 2m and now steps up in trip. The longer distance is an unknown that could suit or expose limitations. Trainer has a modest 3% strike rate at Chepstow from 139 runs with an A/E of 0.42 while jockey records a more respectable 9% from 129 rides here with an A/E of 0.91. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 102/966 (11%) with an A/E of 0.90. He typically settles in midfield on limited evidence with low confidence, is unproven on good to soft ground, and holds a KTB Fit of 45.
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9Hitintheheadlines44/100
Hitintheheadlines showed promise when winning a bumper on debut and has held his form reasonably well in two subsequent hurdle starts. He now steps up in trip for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. The Skelton team have solid records at Chepstow but this remains a low-confidence call given just three career runs. He has one run on good to soft with no win or place, steps up in class, is usually held up with medium confidence, and holds a KTB Fit of 44.
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10Nimba44/100
Nimba has shown plenty of ability in two bumper runs, winning both starts on soft ground last spring before finishing second on hurdling debut. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a modest 6% strike-rate at Chepstow from 17 runs with an A/E of 0.47 while Sean Bowen rides with a solid 17% record at the track from 301 rides with an A/E of 1.14. Typically settling in midfield with medium confidence, he is unproven on good to soft ground, steps up in class, and holds a KTB Fit of 44.
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11Baile An Or42/100
Baile An Or showed ordinary form in four runs last season without looking well handicapped. The trip is a fresh question today having last been seen over much shorter. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Chepstow with the yard on 8% from 92 runs (A/E 0.6) and the jockey on 5% from 264 rides (A/E 0.5). Usually held up with medium confidence, he has one run on good to soft with no win or place and holds a KTB Fit of 42.
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12Minella Blizzard42/100
Minella Blizzard has shown very little in two completed starts since a point-to-point pull-up, finishing well beaten on both occasions. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Chepstow from a big sample of 274 runs with an A/E of 0.77 but the jockey is operating at just 1% from 70 rides here with an A/E of 0.14. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up markedly in trip for a race where the small amount of evidence available must be treated with real caution. He is unproven on good to soft ground, usually held up on limited evidence with low confidence, and holds a KTB Fit of 42.
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13Herbygoesbananas40/100
Herbygoesbananas is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form this season without winning. He drops back in trip having been placed once from two runs at this distance while going form reads well with a win and two places from four starts on good to soft. Trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Chepstow from 67 runs with an A/E of 0.24 is a negative though the jockey has a solid 10% record here from 100 rides with an A/E of 0.7. Usually held up with medium confidence and rated OR 96, he holds a KTB Fit of 40.
KTB verdict
Great Dance stands out as the KTB Selection on a clear Fit rating advantage and the most convincing recent placed form. His second at this track last time gives him solid course exposure and the way he stays on suggests the step up to 2m3f will play to his strengths on good to soft ground where he is one from one. The main dangers are likely to come from Stick To The Board, who won on debut here and has the benefit of the powerful Nicholls-Twiston-Davies combination, and from the unexposed types such as Nimba and Hitintheheadlines who bring bumper promise but must prove themselves over the new trip. The tentative pace may suit the selection's held-up style if he can produce his effort at the right time.
KTB Selection Great Dance
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Chepstow racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course form at Chepstow?
Stick To The Board won here on debut over 2m with one win from one start.
How does the trainer of the selection perform at Chepstow?
Chester Williams has a 67% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 2.18 from three runs.
Which runner is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
That's It Paddy tends to make the running or race on the pace, though that read has limited evidence and low confidence.
Who is stepping up markedly in trip and wearing first-time headgear?
Minella Blizzard steps up markedly in trip and is fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horses are unproven on good to soft ground?
That's It Paddy, Coolnav, Company Charge, Fromjago'stomilan, Nimba and Minella Blizzard are all unproven on good to soft.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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