2:46 Clonmel
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle over 2m4f51y at Clonmel on good ground brings together a field of 13, several with placed form but no winners among them. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with two principals tied on 58, underlining a race where experience, pedigree hints and yard strength will matter. The official ratings of those who hold them sit in the low 100s, and with no previous course-and-distance winners the race looks open on paper.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely-run race is expected with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, creating a fair test. Red Acres Georgie is poised to make the running while Katie Can't Count, Cala Gracioneta, Wicked Pleasure, Ballito Beauty and Run For Power are all inclined to race prominently or on the pace, ensuring an honest gallop. This sets up a key question of which of the forward-going contingent will handle the step up in trip best and maintain their effort up the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cloudy Rosie58/100
Cloudy Rosie arrives with steady placed form in bumpers this year, finishing third twice before a fourth last time out. She steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question while her pedigree offers some encouragement as half-sister to Geordie B who won four times from 14 runs, with the dam having produced four winners from six runners. The Richard Morrissey yard has no Clonmel record from a small sample of nine runs overall at 11 per cent, so both going and overall ability must be treated with caution. She has been placed once from one start on good ground yet remains without a win. Kevin Healy takes the ride with a 29 per cent strike rate at the track from seven rides. Typically she settles in midfield.
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2Katie Can't Count KTB Selection58/100
Katie Can't Count is a useful performer who has shown steady improvement across four runs this year, culminating in a second-place finish last time. The step up in trip is an unknown but her half-sister My Sister Sarah thrived at longer distances, and the dam has produced one winner from two other runners. First-time headgear is now fitted. The Willie Mullins yard boasts a 27 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 805 runs, though Brian Hayes is operating at 7 per cent from 248 rides here. She has been placed once from four starts on good ground without winning and holds an official rating of 102. She usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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3Cala Gracioneta54/100
Cala Gracioneta has shown some ability on good ground with two placed efforts from seven starts and brings plenty of racing experience for a four-year-old. The trip looks a fresh question having failed to make the frame on her only previous attempt at it. Trainer Matthew J Smith operates at a 13 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 45 runs, which is in line with his record elsewhere, while James Smith has an 18 per cent strike rate at the track from 17 rides. She has been placed twice from seven starts on good ground yet remains without a win. She usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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4Red Acres Georgie53/100
Red Acres Georgie has shown some promise on her last two starts with placed efforts after an early fall. She steps up in trip today having been beaten on her only previous try at this distance. The Anthony Mullins yard holds a 13 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 403 runs in line with their record elsewhere and Danny Mullins rides with a 10 per cent strike rate from 302 rides at the track. She has been placed twice from three starts on good ground without winning. As a front-runner she tends to make the running or race on the pace. Her half-sister Red Acres Max won once from two runs and the dam produced one other winner.
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5Weaponized52/100
Weaponized has been placed twice in three starts and steps up in trip today having already been placed over this distance. The Sean Thomas Doyle yard records a 14 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 21 runs in line with their overall figure. With only three career runs and low data confidence the form must be treated with caution. She has been placed once from two starts on good ground without winning. Mr R Sugrue takes the mount with a 0 per cent strike rate from seven rides at the track. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
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6Wicked Pleasure50/100
Wicked Pleasure is lightly raced with only three runs and a modest recent form line of 33-4. The trip has not brought a win so far and the small sample makes the going an unknown as she has had no runs on good. Full sister to high-class Grade 1 winner Zanoosh from a family that has produced winners, she usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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7Ballito Beauty50/100
Ballito Beauty has shown mixed form in three starts, finishing second on debut before two lesser efforts. The yard has a 0 per cent strike rate from five runs at Clonmel. Stepping up markedly in trip is a fresh question while the small sample means going suitability remains unknown despite one placed effort from one start on good. She usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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8Run For Power46/100
Run For Power is a useful performer who has shown steady if unspectacular form in five runs since last year, finishing no better than sixth on his last three starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time and tries first-time headgear, both fresh questions. The C Byrnes yard has a 10 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 221 runs in line with his record elsewhere. He has had three runs on good without a win or place and usually races handily on or close to the lead. Half-sister to Grade 3 winner Run For Oscar.
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9Carleys Lilly46/100
Carleys Lilly is a useful mare who has shown fair form without winning. She finished fourth of 16 over course and distance on her latest start and steps back up in trip today after a couple of shorter runs. Trainer John Patrick Ryan records a 9 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 267 runs in line with his overall figure, while the small sample on this ground leaves suitability unknown despite one placed effort from four starts on good.
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10Lyla Gift45/100
Lyla Gift is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The dam has had just one other runner that failed to win, so the immediate pedigree offers little encouragement. Trainer Patrick John Kiely has only three runs at Clonmel which is too small a sample to judge.
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11Senorita Diana45/100
Senorita Diana has shown very little in three starts to date and arrives off the back of two heavy defeats. The half-sister to Spanish John is being asked a fresh question over this trip having failed to make an impact on her sole attempt at it. Trainer P A Fahy has an 8 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 345 runs in line with his record elsewhere. She has had two runs on good without a win or place.
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12Shadonagh40/100
Shadonagh has shown little in five starts to date and was well held when last seen. He steps up markedly in trip today having failed to make the frame at this distance on his only previous attempt. The trainer's 5 per cent strike rate at Clonmel is in line with his record elsewhere. He has been placed once from two starts on good without winning and typically settles in midfield.
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13Bayswater Bloom38/100
Bayswater Bloom has shown modest form at best in seven starts with a string of mid-pack finishes. The trip is a fresh question today and the family record is ordinary as half-sister to Specialv who won four times from 31 runs. Trainer Miss Evanna McCutcheon has a 0 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 12 runs. She has been placed once from three starts on good without winning and typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Katie Can't Count is the KTB Selection. She has looked a useful performer with steady improvement across four runs this season, culminating in a second last time, and the Mullins yard's 27 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from a huge sample commands respect. First-time headgear may help her settle while her pedigree offers hope for the longer trip through half-sister My Sister Sarah. The main dangers are Red Acres Georgie, who can make the running and has shown promise in recent placed efforts, and Cloudy Rosie, who brings consistent bumper form and a stout pedigree. Weaponized and Cala Gracioneta are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be dismissed if the race falls their way.
KTB Selection Katie Can't Count
This is the narrative read of the 2:46 Clonmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Clonmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Clonmel results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Clonmel racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Clonmel?
Katie Can't Count's trainer W. P. Mullins has a 27 per cent strike rate at Clonmel from 805 runs.
How many principals race prominently or on the lead?
Three of the five principals usually race handily or on the pace: Katie Can't Count, Cala Gracioneta and Red Acres Georgie.
Which runner has course-and-distance experience?
Carleys Lilly finished fourth of 16 over course and distance on her latest start.
What is the highest official rating in the field?
Katie Can't Count holds an official rating of 102.
Which horse is making its racecourse debut?
Lyla Gift is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
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