3:47 Chepstow
This Class 2 Dragonbet Cefnogi Rasio Ceffylau Cymreig Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f131y at Chepstow on good to soft ground brings together a competitive field of 12 where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. King of The Lake heads the KTB rankings on 63 with Deep Cave, Time To Bite, Matty's Getaway and Service Minimum all on 60 or 61, underlining the depth on offer. Several runners step up or drop in class while others face new trips or first runs at the track, and the overall KTB numbers point to a race that will be decided by how the strong pace unfolds and which horses handle the late demands best.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared the pace shape is strong and the race is likely to be run at a genuine gallop from the outset. Time To Bite, Jury's In and Thank You Ma'am all tend to make the running or race prominently while the remainder are largely held-up or race in mid-division, setting up the strong likelihood of a late collapse that will favour those coming from off the pace. The key question is which of the hold-up performers can pick up the pieces when the leaders fold, with the strong pace expected to play into the hands of patient riders.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1King of The Lake KTB Selection63/100
King of The Lake is the KTB selection. A high-class performer with strong course connections, he has won here from just two starts and has also won over today's trip. He drops back from three miles while his recent form reads patchily as 1F405- and the fall at the start of his last campaign raises a question mark. The 8-year-old typically settles in midfield. Jeremy Scott and Chad Bament both operate at a solid 11% strike rate at Chepstow, the trainer from 216 runs with an A/E of 0.96 and the jockey from nine rides with an A/E of 1.01. He has two wins from 11 starts on good to soft.
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2Deep Cave61/100
Deep Cave is a high-class performer on his day with strong ratings and a solid history of competitive runs. He has won on good to soft ground and at today's trip though he drops back in distance from his latest start. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Christian Williams has a modest 3% strike rate at Chepstow from 141 runs with an A/E of 0.42 while Jack Tudor has a more respectable 9% record here from 134 rides with an A/E of 0.87. This is the horse's first run at the track.
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3Time To Bite60/100
Time To Bite is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after two seconds from his last three starts, his recent figures reading -13022. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance and has placed twice on good to soft ground without winning. The 11-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace. Chris Honour has a 17% strike rate at Chepstow from 29 runs with an A/E of 1.25 while Bryan Carver sits on 10% from 97 rides with an A/E of 0.92. He steps up in class.
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4Matty's Getaway60/100
Matty's Getaway is a high-class performer who showed his ability with a recent win after finishing placed in his previous four starts, his form reading 3412-1. He has been placed both times at Chepstow without winning and now drops back in trip to one he has never tried, which poses a fresh question. The 7-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls have an 8% strike rate at Chepstow from 24 runs with an A/E of 0.53 while Ciaran Gethings has a 9% record from 161 rides with an A/E of 0.82. He has one win from three starts on good to soft with two placings.
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5Service Minimum60/100
Service Minimum is a high-class performer with a strong recent record of 711-71 that includes two wins this year. He steps up in trip today as a fresh question while making a first appearance at Chepstow. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Dan Skelton strikes at 12% here from 365 runs with an A/E of 0.8 and Harry Skelton at 13% from 268 rides with an A/E of 0.73. He has placed twice from three starts on good to soft without winning and steps up in class.
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6Jury's In60/100
Jury's In is a high-class performer on the evidence of his ratings and race history. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m4f and that distance increase remains an open question. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 74 runs at Chepstow while the jockey is operating at an 11% strike rate from 54 rides here. He drops in class and is unproven on good to soft.
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7Jalisco Star59/100
Jalisco Star is a smart performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. He has placed three times from six starts on good to soft ground and arrives off the back of two seconds in similar company. Trainer and jockey both hold above-average strike rates here. He steps up in class.
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8Tune In A Box58/100
Tune In A Box is a high-class performer with solid placed efforts at this track and a proven record at today's trip where he has won twice from six attempts. Recent form has been patchy and he has failed to place in four runs on good to soft ground. Trainer and jockey both hold respectable records at Chepstow. He steps up in class.
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9Leader Crik58/100
Leader Crik is a high-class performer on his limited evidence with two placed efforts from just three starts. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Chepstow. He steps up in class.
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10Thank You Ma'am54/100
Thank You Ma'am is a high-class performer on her day with strong ratings and race history to back her up. She has a win at today's trip but drops back from 3m1f, while her record on good to soft is respectable with one win and five places from eight runs. The yard has a 10% strike rate from 31 runs at Chepstow and the jockey is 6% from 31 rides here, though she was well held on her only previous run at the track. She steps up in class.
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11Alien Storm53/100
Alien Storm is a high-class performer with strong recent form including a second on this track and another placed effort over today's trip. Three wins from eight starts on good to soft add to his solid profile here, though the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Chepstow is a negative. Jockey has a better 11% record at the course.
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12Oakley46/100
Oakley is a smart performer on his day with a solid recent record that includes two wins and two seconds from his last five starts. He has won at today's trip but steps back up in distance having last run over 2m6f, while his record on good to soft is competitive without a win. The yard's modest record here and his own poor run when tried at Chepstow previously are both negatives. He steps up in class.
KTB verdict
King of The Lake is the KTB selection. He brings high-class ability, proven winning form both at Chepstow and over the trip, and the benefit of strong course connections from just two starts here. While his recent form is patchy and the early fall last season leaves a question, the selection looks well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses late as expected. Deep Cave, Time To Bite and Matty's Getaway head the dangers, with Service Minimum also capable of figuring if his upward curve continues.
KTB Selection King of The Lake
This is the narrative read of the 3:47 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Chepstow racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip as a fresh question?
Leader Crik steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Chepstow among the principals?
Chris Honour has a 17% strike rate at Chepstow from 29 runs.
Which runners are likely to contribute to the strong pace?
Time To Bite, Jury's In and Thank You Ma'am all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has King of The Lake recorded at Chepstow?
King of The Lake has won here from just two starts.
Which horse has placed both times at Chepstow without winning?
Matty's Getaway has been placed both times at Chepstow without winning.
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